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Source: http://www.doksinet Mandala 4:00 R06 Disclaimer: This paper University of Pittsburgh partially fulfills a writing requirement for first year (freshman) engineering students Swanson School of at the is based on publicly Engineering. Thispaper is a studentpaper, available information and not a professional paper. This paper for any purpose other than may not provide complete analyses of all relevant data. If this paper is used this authors partial fulfillment of a writing requirement for first students at the University of year (freshman) engineering Pittsburgh Swanson School of Engineering, users are doing so at their own risk. THE TESLA MODEL 3: WHY ELECTRIC CARS ARE THE FUTURE Fred Wohlers (fxw2@pitt.edu) INTRODUCTION In 2015, Elon Musk stated that Teslas mission was a zero-emission power generation [l]. Two years later, that goal may be coming sooner than Musk market. For the first time in the history of electric ve Lot only was one made that was a le, it was a

legitimate option to the middleclass consun€ Julys release of the Tesla Model 3 marked a huge stepping stone towards that future, and a society that depends solely on electric vehicles is only getting closer. The Tesla Model 3 is only another piece of evidence that the electric car market is here to stay. Although these vehicles are mostly electrical engineering, as a mechanical engineer, I would love to participate help in the development of an emission free or electric vehicle, and being able to contribute not only towards the car, but also the betterment of society as a whole, is the exact reason I want to become an engineer. WHAT ARE ELECTRIC VEHICLES? Electric vehicles are defined as vehicles that use an electric motor instead of a gas motor. However, there are several different types of electric vehicles. A Plu -In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) is an electric vehicle er• the vehicle is charged by plugging it in to the electric grid [2]. However, this type of electric

vehicle also has a gas motor because the electric motor does not have a satisfactory range, hence the name "hybrid" [2]. A Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) is a full on electric vehicle, as it runs solely on electricity and batteries to power the vehicle [2]. The Tesla Model 3 is a BEV. Lastly, a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) is also another purely electric vehicle, it uses electricity to combine both oxygen and hydrogen stored in tanks in the car 2]. The rapid growth and expansion of the electric ar market only show the demand and overall necessi for a switch to an electric car based society. purpose? University of Pittsburgh, Swanson School of Engineering 1 10.312017 THE ADVANTAGES OF AN ELECTRIC CAR SOCIETY In 2015, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) concluded that over a quarter of the annual US greenhouse gas emissions, about 27%, came from the transportation industry, while specifically 60% of emissions from the transportation industry came from light duty

vehicles [3]. Greenhouse gas emissions, specifically C02 emissions, have drastically increased in the United States over the past few decades (doubled from five billion tons in the 1980s to almost 10 billion in 2014) [4]. With global warming becoming a serious concern to almost every industrialized nation, first steps such as converting to an electric car dependent society are crucial in reducing the USs carbon footprint and stopping climate change. Transforming every gas based vehicle on the road to electric based would have a huge impact on the carbon emissions of the US. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) studied the impact of vSZ converting all cars in the US to PHEVs in 2007, when the carbon emission in the US was 15 percen ower than it currently is [5]. They concluded tha 1 every car in the US was switched to a PHEV, which uses a combination of gas and electricity, there would be an average of 42% less carbon emitted per mile driven [5]. If BEVs or FCEVs were

factored into the study, the percentage would be even higher, as these types of electric vehicles dont depend on or use gasoline at all. As a mechanical engineer, I think that a legitimate and enjoyable career choice for myself would be helping to further reduce the carbon emission from the transportation industry in general. This leads to another major benefit of an all electric car society: gasoline usage reduction. With the switch to electric vehicles, it is obvious that less gasoline, if any, would be used to power the vehicles. According to the NREL, assuming that 50% of cars on the road in the US in 2050 would be PH Vs, there would be at least a 25% reduction in •Ilions of gasoline consumed per year, from 148 billion to 107 billion [6]. ain, this number would be much higher if 64 Source: http://www.doksinet b. Fred Wohlers all cars were electric or if BEVs or FCEVs were included in the study. WHY THE TESLA MODEL 3 IS THE FUTURE OF ELECTRIC CARS $35 The Tesla Model 3

accomplished something that ould have been impossible only a handful of years ag Unlike its predecessors, which were consid e igh end cars and often cost wards of 100,00 $, he Model 3 starts at 35,00 a price that is in the range of most middle-class consumers [7]. The technology inside the car, specifically the cheaper batteries, have turned the Model 3 into the gold standardfor electric cars an#ave defined the electric car market for years to come11The batteries in the Model 3, which are lithium-ion, have become significantlycheaper since 2010, enabling the overall cost of the car to decrease by a remarkable amount. Since 2010, lithium-ion battery costs per kilowatt-hour (kWh) have decreased by nearly fourfold, from around 10000 According to McKinsey&Company,"Lower costs for base versions of atte acks could otentiall the. Tesla Model 3 below $40,000 fter the $7,500 the Gigafactory federal tax subsidy is applie being built in California, Tesla pl s on lowering the battery

costs even further, for per kWh prices below Since the battery costs are the single most s part of the Model 3, driving the cost of the batteries to below 106for per kWh would have significant positive impacts on the marketability and role of the electric car in society According to CNN Money, "The Model 3, just by itself, could easily double or even triple electric vehicle sales in the U.S if Tesla can ramp up production" [10]. This car could easily be the forefront of electric car technology, and it could set standards for generations to come. Being able to work on a car of the future, or a car on the forefront of technology, would be a dream come true for me. here to stay, they could soon become the do mating force in the transportation industry. Additionally, the range of electric vehi es has also played a role in the growing of the indust . The ranges for many electric vehicles has been steadily increasing annually, and although the Model 3 has been out for less than a

year, older Tesla cars have been out for several years. The Model S, for example, had a range of208 miles in 2013 as compared to 249 miles in 2017 [8]. Other electric vehicles, such as the Nissan Leaf, also had increases in range. These increases "helped offset some of the range concerns that consumers cite as a major deterrent to EV purchases" [8]. With range becoming less and less of a concern, the market will inevitably shift away from traditional gasoline vehicles and towards electric vehicles. ARGUMENTS AGAINST ELECTRIC CARS Although electric cars would reduce our carbon footprint and would help reduce gasoline consumption, there are legitimate concerns when it comes to electric vehicles. Perhaps the most convincing argument against electric vehicles are charging times. According to Mike Brown of Inverse, the Model 3 can take anywhere between 5 and 10 hours to completely charge, whereas gasoline based vehicles can be refilled in a matter of minutes [12]. Although this

is not a significant issue on its own, Louis Woodhill of Forbes cited a snowstorm in January of this year in which "ten mile homeward commutes took four hours" [131.He goes on to say that "If there had been a million electric cars on American roads at the time, every single one of them. would have ended up stranded on the side of the road, dead" [13]. Although many gas cars would have also ended up dead, it is undeniable that refueling would be much quicker and more convenient if cars were gasoline, not electric. However, Tesla is looking into improving its charging rates, and its own charging stations are able to fully charge a Tesla Model S in less than 2 hours [9]. Other arguments, such as the range, price, and horsepower of electric vehicles versus gas vehicles,.are slowly but surely becoming less and less effective. THE MOMENTUMOF THE ELECTRIC CAR MARKET Although the demand and supply for the electric car has heavily fluctuated in the last century, it is

undebatable that it is currently experiencing a resurgence in its popularity. 24 hours after the announcement of the Tesla Model 3, 18,000 pre-orders March 31, had already been placed [11]. Between pre380,000 than more 2016, and December 31, 2016, which were placed, orders for the Tesla Model 3 were for any car in "the largest number of pre-orders of pre-orders number history" [8]. The unprecedented electric cars are only not for the Model 3 prove that CONCLUSION Although most people have not seen the integration of the Model 3 into the transportation industry, as it starts shipping in Fall 2017, it has already had astounding effects on the electric car market. By breaking the preorder record and being the cheapest and most cost effective electric vehicle on the streets [81, the Tesla Model 3 has proved that electric vehicles can directly 2 Source: http://www.doksinet Fred Wohlers compete with traditional gasoline powered vehicles. Working for Tesla, although a probably

impossible dream of mine, would be one of my top choices as a automakers-can-drive-electrified-vehicle-sales-andprofitability [9] M. Brown "Heres Why the Tesla Model 3 Price is So (Relatively) Cheap". Inverse 4122017 Accessed 10.282017 https://wwwinversecom/article/30244why-is-the-tesla-model-3-so-cheap [10] P. Valdes-Dapena "Why the Tesla Model 3 is a really big deal". CNN Money 7312017 Accessed 10.282017 http ://money.cnncom/2017/07/28/technology/teslamodel-3-matters/indexhtml [1 1] G. Ledford "Powered by Purpose: What Teslas career, and helping to make society greener, such as the Model 3 does, would accomplish all that I would want in my career. If the Tesla Model 3 and future models of electric vehicles caught on to mainstream society, the benefits would be unprecedented. These include the 42% reduction in carbon emission [5] and 25% reduction in fuel consumption [6]. In turn, this would only help to prove that the electric vehicle market is not going

anywhere anytime soon. With a car like the Tesla 3 on the market, the future only looks greener. Model 3 Says About the Future of Sustainability" TriplePundit. 4052016 Accessed 10282017 http ://www.triplepunditcom/2016/04/tes la-model-3- SOURCES sustainability/ [12] M. Brown "The Tesla Model 3 Will Need to Improve Its Charge Time, Fast". Inverse 4122017 10.282017 Accessed https://www.inversecom/article/30234-tesla-model-3charge-time-range-estimate [13] L. Woodhill "Electric Cars Are An Extraordinarily Bad Idea". Forbes 9142011 10.302017 Accessed https://www.forbescom/sites/louiswoodhill/2011 /09/1 4/electric-cars-are-an-extraordinarily-badidea/#22c8d0ff42af [l] M. Debord "Elon Musk just revealed Tesla Energy". Business Insider 5012015 Accessed 10.232017 https://wwwbusinessinsidercomau/herecomes-teslas-missing- iece-batte -announcement2015-4 [2] J. Goldman "Comparing Electric Vehicles: Hybrid vs. BEV vs PHEV vs FCEV" Union of Concerned

10.232017 Accessed 2.122014 Scientists. http://blog.ucsusaorg/iosh-goldman/comparingelectric-veh icles-hybrid-vs-bev-vs-phev-vs-fcev-411 [3] "Fast Facts: U.S Transportation Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions". 72017 Accessed 10232017 https://nepis.epagov[Exe/ZyPDFcgi?Dockey=P ADDITIONAL SOURCES I OOS7 NK.pdf [4] T.A Boden, G Marland, and RJ Andres "Annual Global Fossil-Fuel Carbon Emissions - Graphics". Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center. 2017 http://cdiac.ess102317 Accessed dive.lbl ov/trends/e is/ 10 2014html Brown. "Potential Carbon [5] P. Lilienthanlf Emissions Reductions from Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles by 2030". National Renewable Energy 10.252017 Accessed 1.2007 Laboratory. http://denning.atmoscolostateedu/readings/Solutions/ ASES.2030TacklingClimateChangepdf [6] W. Short and P Denholm "A Preliminary Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Wind Energy Markets". National Renewable Energy 10.252017 Accessed 4.2006

Laboratory. https://www.nrelgov/docs/fy060sti/39729pdf [7] K. Fehrenbacher "Why the Model 3 is Such a Big Deal to Tesla". Fortune 3302016 Accessed http://fortune.com/2016/03/30/model-310262017 big-deal-tesla/ F. Lambert "Tesla Model 3 and Model Y could represent half the global EV market within 3 years, says report". Electrek 942017 Accessed 10262017 https://electrek.co/2017/09/04/tesla-model-3-model-yglobal-ev-market-report/ ACKNOWLEDMENTS I would like to thank Nordenberg Floor 6 for helping me get through this paper and format my citations correctly. [8] "Electrifying insights: How automakers can drive and profitability". sales vehicle electrified 10.282017 Accessed 1.2017 McKinsey&Company. https://www.mckinseycom/industries/automotive-andassembly/our-insights/electrifying-insights-how- 3