Környezetvédelem | Tanulmányok, esszék » Steven A Conrad - Unifying the views of ecological and engineering resilience for sustainable systems engineering

Unifying the views of ecological and engineering resilience for sustainable systems engineering Systems Engineering Friday Talk, April 4, 2025 Steven A Conrad, PhD Associate Professor of Systems Engineering An impressive built environment South-North Water Transfer Project, China move 54.5 trillion liters of water over more than 1000 kilometers Trends in TWS (in centimeters per year) obtained on the basis of GRACE observations from April 2002 to March 2016 Rodell, M., Famiglietti, JS, Wiese, DN et al Emerging trends in global freshwater availability Nature 557, 651–659 (2018). https://doiorg/101038/s41586-018-0123-1 Proposed 2015 run of the river hydro projects in British Columbia, Canada Source: http://www.ippwatchinfo/w/ Build bigger, is this needed? licensed with Cc-by-2.0 Jean-R.-Marcotte Wastewater Treatment Plant Montreal, Canada - 7,600,000 m3 per day ~10 million households licensed with Cc-by-2.0 Three Gorges Dam, China - 112 TWh Power 11.2 million homes for

a year Conventional thinking is not enough Need is exponentially greater than the solution Rates required to provide sanitation services with conventional (non adaptive) approaches to infrastructure Öberg, G.; Metson, GS; Kuwayama, Y; A Conrad, S Conventional Sewer Systems Are Too Time-Consuming, Costly and Inflexible to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century. Sustainability 2020, 12, 6518 https://doi.org/103390/su12166518 Where should we focus efforts on resilience for sustainable systems engineering? • How can we design systems to enhance their inherent resilience to disruptions? • Efforts might entail – Minimizing negative impacts on supporting systems – Resisting sudden or chronic external changes – Adapting to sudden or chronic external changes – Transformation • Minimizing negative impacts = resistance and prevention • Adaptation = changing how functions are delivered (physical, institutional), and learning how to change • What strategies

influence system-level resilience and sustainability? • How do human-engineered interventions impact the resilience of natural and built systems? • How well do engineering frameworks for resilience and sustainability translate to both ecological and social systems? • Our ability to maintain function? • Our ability to adapt? • Our ability to get it right the first time? Resilience and my history Figure 1. Evolving perceptions of resilience within the engineering, ecological and social sciences during the last 50+ years and historical milestones (papers, reports, alliances, networks, programmes, policies). Attended my first climate change seminar Crozier, A, et. al (2024) Resilience framework for urban water supply systems planning. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 9(4), 386-406 BSC degrees in Optical Engineering/Cognitive Psychology • MS. ENV Technology MGMT – International Sustainability • Director of Sustainability Services - Consulting •

Sustainability Strategies • PhD Resource Environmental Management • Defining Water System Resilience Figure 1. Evolving perceptions of resilience within the engineering, ecological and social sciences during the last 50+ years and historical milestones (papers, reports, alliances, networks, programmes, policies). Crozier, A, et. al (2024) Resilience framework for urban water supply systems planning. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 9(4), 386-406 Viewpoints from ecological resilience Canadian Ecologist Crawford Stanley "Buzz" Holling father of ecological resilience theory and ecological economics Panarchy is a heuristic of nested adaptive cycles that serves to represent a variety of systems and environmental problems Gunderson LH, Holling CS (eds) (2002) Panarchy : understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press, Washington, DC Observations and successes in nature Khanolkar, Rutvij & Clark, Shawn & Wang, Pauline

& Hwang, David & Yau, Yvonne & Waters, Valerie & Guttman, David. (2020) Ecological Succession of Polymicrobial Communities in the Cystic Fibrosis Airways mSystems perturbations Nature has a substantial head start on us in applying systems thinking and resilience principles Observations and successes in nature climax Grasses Woody pioneers Khanolkar, Rutvij & Clark, Shawn & Wang, Pauline & Hwang, David & Yau, Yvonne & Waters, Valerie & Guttman, David. (2020) Ecological Succession of Polymicrobial Communities in the Cystic Fibrosis Airways mSystems Early successional communities establish themselves relatively quickly after a fire (rapid colonizers) while late successional communities establish themselves much later 2E"=>&?#P&=E'E"@5=1$E=AM"=B&PE"=$1??L5= )CaQb?b&- Relations to resilience capacity ;77 !"#$B&'E=)*+,-=)W77WdW79<W87

.ELBM1"'E=)W779dW7982E"PQ=)W77WdW798- W77 *5S'E5=)W77WdW79<- 987 *5S'E5 !"#$B&'E )*+,- 977 87 2E"PQ .ELBM1"'E 7 W77 W87 ;77 ;87 <77 <87 2E"=>&?#P&=1"B&'=B&PE"=1$E=)cb?bSSystem response of water supply investments in Australia Conceptual diagram of resilience in ecological systems. A system with high resilience starts at time T 1 and returns to a similar state at time T 2 . A non-resilient system starts at time T 1 and returns to a different state at time T 2 . Bhagwat, Shonil & Nogué, Sandra & Willis, Katherine. (2012) Resilience of an ancient tropical forest landscape to 7500 years of environmental change. Biological Conservation 153 108–117 10.1016/jbiocon201205002 Lam, K.L, O’Brien, K, Lant, P, Kenway, SK et al 2017 Journal of Cleaner Production. As engineers we can understand the exploitation and growth phases Robert I. Carr, PhD Even

conservation works Robert I. Carr, PhD Hawliczek, Petr, Dung Vo Tien, and Radomir Gono. "Creating and measuring unipolar and bipolar ultra-low voltage step-up converters." 2017 18th International Scientific Conference on Electric Power Engineering (EPE). IEEE, 2017 The troubling stage of ecological resilience for engineers Systems Engineering efforts Natural decay of systems prompts growth and recovery - promote growth - incentivize novelty We struggle with the release cycle Collapse efforts to maintain stability - Flood prevention - Government subsidies - Hostile policies against change Engineering perspectives of resilience in the academic literature Resilience in the water sector is often loosely framed as: – improved water security in the face of change – reduced vulnerability to water- related risks and hazards Increase in water resilience papers 1983-2017 Conrad, Ed., 2021, Rodina, L in Unraveling Water Resilience at Canadian Water and Waste

Association Workshop, Toronto, Canada Source: Rodina, L. (2019) Defining “water resilience”: Debates, concepts, approaches, and gaps Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 6(2), 1–18 http://doi.org/101002/wat21334 Models of resilience Rölfer, L., L Celliers, and D J Abson 2022 Resilience and coastal governance: knowledge and navigation between stability and transformation. Ecology and Society 27(2):40 https://doiorg/105751/ES-13244270240 Definitions of resilience Conrad, Ed., 2021, Rodina, L in Unraveling Water Resilience at Canadian Water and Waste Association Workshop, Toronto, Canada Source: Rodina, L. (2019) Defining “water resilience”: Debates, concepts, approaches, and gaps Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 6(2), 1–18 http://doi.org/101002/wat21334 Systems Engineering Resilience vs Ecological Resilience “The definition of resilience, as agreed by the RSWG, is that System Resilience is the ability of an engineered system (or System of Systems)

to provide required capability when facing adversity” “fundamental objectives of resilience are avoiding, withstanding, and recovering from adversity” – INCOSE Resilience Working Group System State Engineered Resilience Engineering Ecological Resilience Resistance +Recovery Release + Reorganization Equilibrium One Multiple possibilities Perturbations Threat Growth opportunity Conditions Stability near equilibrium Defined by structure Comparison of Engineering Vs Ecological aspects of resilience Vague difference between vulnerability and resilience Resilience as part of vulnerability “Resilience focuses on the capacity of the system to return to the original state” ”Vulnerability refers to weakness and fragility while resilience involves effectiveness of adaptations" Tri, H. C, Hens, L, Phuoc, P M T, Hung, N T, & Phuong, T H (2017) A systematic approach to the dilemma between flood vulnerability and resilience-Review and concepts. Vietnam

Journal of Science and Technology, 55(5), 620-636. Social Systems of Panarchy responses Classical SE strengths Conrad, Ed., 2021, Rodina, L in Unraveling Water Resilience at Canadian Water and Waste Association Workshop, Toronto, Canada Source: Rodina, L. (2019) Defining “water resilience”: Debates, concepts, approaches, and gaps Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water, 6(2), 1–18 http://doi.org/101002/wat21334 The non adaptive view of resilience A system is resilient to the degree to which it rapidly and effectively protects its critical capabilities from disruption caused by adverse events and conditions. System Resilience: What Exactly is it? Example – Dike construction Fig. 3 The modelling approach followed in this study starting from a sea-level rise scenario towards computing the optimal dike by 2100. Step 1: determine the accumulation of sediment in the marsh, step 2: determine the storm conditions across the marsh at the dike toe, step 3: determine the

probability of failure of different dike designs and return the design with the lowest clay demand as output. Marijnissen, Richard, et al. "How natural processes contribute to flood protection-A sustainable adaptation scheme for a wide green dike." Science of the Total Environment 739 (2020): 139698. Iqbal, S.; Tanaka, N An Experimental Investigation on Dike Stabilization against Floods. Geosciences 2023, 13, 307 https://doiorg/103390/geosciences13100307 Figure 1. Definition sketch of impermeable dike (modified from Kuhnle, R., & Alonso, C [12]) failure due to high scour depth around dike’s head located upstream of the Sanghar Bridge in Taunsa, Pakistan, under nonsubmerged flood condition. While u/s and d/s stand for upstream and downstream. Ecosystem adaptations instead of building bigger Marijnissen, Richard, et al. "How natural processes contribute to flood protection-A sustainable adaptation scheme for a wide green dike." Science of the Total

Environment 739 (2020): 139698. Source: The Future of Urban Water: Scenarios for Water Utilities Envisioning resilient water systems • Better Together pictures a scenario where industry and utilities better collaborate centralised system • Autonomous Communities is a world in which households, communities and industry develop independence in water collection, processing and distribution while considering the interrelation of water, energy and food systems. Key Points: • Clean technology economy • Smart technologies reduce consumption • Integrated industrial and commercial water use partnerships • Green infrastructure has been supported Source: The Future of Urban Water: Scenarios for Water Utilities. Key Points: • • • Decentralized systems supported by advanced technology at a community scale High water supply/resource prices have driven local supply solutions Extreme weather measures addressed at a community (site scale) Source: The Future of

Urban Water: Scenarios for Water Utilities Themes analysis – results Elements of resilience Planning & Design “When we have coordination, we might see more resilience.” Organization Organized at a regional level with community engagement in operation and cross-scale collaboration between multiple providers (public utilities, private industries), and municipalities with shared top-down governance and management. “Utility responsible for resilience but private industry on call for emergency response.” Management Framework/guidelines Strong regional guidance and established frameworks for equitable service delivery, decentralized supply, resource depletion and adaptive management plans, as well as effective communication and data sharing avenues. Challenges Management (25%) Planning & Design (50%) Challenges (25%) Organization (13%) Infrastructure (17%) Public acceptance (7%) Framework/ Guidelines (7%) Information Technology (13%) Urgency (5%)

Funding models (5%) Supply sources (12%) Research (5%) Data availability (6%) Education (5%) Interconnections (2%) Barriers to innovation (3%) Funding models Shared funding model based on a water licensing system that reflects quality, source variability, and provides flexibility in infrastructure planning process. Conrad, S., Crozier, A (2021) “Defining water resilience - lessons for 2030” presented virtually at the BC Water and Waste Association Annual Conference, Penticton, BC. May 31- June 2 Themes analysis – preliminary results Elements of resilience Planning & Design “Start utilizing and enhancing natural systems, resilience factor, give us flexibility, reduce risk of variety of hazards.” “Upgrade our water treatment plants and rates are adjusted appropriately to support investment in resilience.” Management Challenges Management (25%) Planning & Design (50%) Challenges (25%) Organization (13%) Infrastructure (17%) Public acceptance

(7%) Framework/ Guidelines (7%) Information Technology (13%) Urgency (5%) Funding models (5%) Supply sources (12%) Research (5%) Infrastructure Information Technology Supply sources Data availability Interconnection s Data availability (6%) Education (5%) Infrastructure upgraded under a wider system view that incorporates human factors and response planning, where important design elements such as multiple lines of defense, redundancy, nature-based solutions and green infrastructure across scales, accounting for uncertainty in disturbances, and technology for integrating systems are considered. Streamlined technology and connected information system prerequisites for autonomous operation, system integration and flexibility, distributed control, failure prediction, shorter response time, new water licensing model and potential service provider competition. Connecting water quality to demand type, and advanced treatment technology enabling a variety of independent supply

options (e.g, lakes, groundwater, stormwater, wastewater), where industry is forerunner and collaborates with communities on circular usage. Coherent data accessible everywhere through full water metering, feeding into response plans, decisionmaking, and system optimization. Energy for water usage in focus and savings related to reuse and recycling. Interconnections (2%) Barriers to innovation (3%) Themes analysis – preliminary results Challenges to overcome Planning & Design “Public accepts and embraces climate change and resilience, as well as the need for water conservation.” “Our resiliency needs to improve faster than extreme events are getting worse.” Management Challenges Management (25%) Planning & Design (50%) Challenges (25%) Organization (13%) Infrastructure (17%) Public acceptance (7%) Framework/ Guidelines (7%) Information Technology (13%) Urgency (5%) Funding models (5%) Supply sources (12%) Research (5%) Data availability (6%)

Education (5%) Interconnections (2%) Barriers to innovation (3%) Public acceptance Urgency Research Education Barriers to innovation Increase trust in service providers (public utilities and private entities), recognition of the urgency of action, and accepting water conservation and new funding models. Climate-induced challenges increasingly difficult to deal with, the gap is growing, and actions taken today will take time to materialize, thus forced transitions might be unavoidable. Improve system knowledge, considering current weaknesses and critical infrastructure interconnections, and achieve a better understanding of emerging contaminants and health impacts from deteriorating water quality. Increase public knowledge of the water system from source to tap, including its management and operation. Sense of ownership by service providers and slow retro-fit of existing infrastructure, as well as independent development of technological and financial maturity. Key

elements of water resilience Supply sources 12% DEMONSTRATING ADAPTATION Organization 18% Data availability 18% Urgency 9% Research 5% Organization Frameworks/g 4% uidelines 9% Funding models 4% Supply sources 18% Infrastructure 23% Data availability 5% Information Technology 29% DEMONSTRATING RESISTANCE Information Technology 14% Infrastructure 32% Rocky mountain workshop on defining water resilience Poteet, D., Conrad, S, Altland, M (2024) “Unravelling Water System Resilience for 2040: A collaborative western water workshop”, Rocky Mountain Water, Issue 5, 11-12 How does resilience relate to sustainable systems engineering? • Sustainability • • Prioritizes desired outcomes (e.g, human quality of life, environmental integrity) focus on end-goal objectives (resource conservation, waste reduction) • Resilience • Focuses on maintaining processes to withstand disturbances • Prioritizes functionality and adaptability during and after

disruptions, without prescribing specific outcomes Resilience and sustainability as separate objectives • Describes resilience and sustainability as separate objectives • Implementations maintain that resilience does not contribute to sustainability • nor does sustainability contribute to resilience • Separate implementations of sustainability and resilience are prevalent in civil infrastructure – – •Marchese, D., Reynolds, E, Bates, M E, Morgan, H, Clark, S S, & Linkov, I (2018) Resilience and sustainability: Similarities and differences in environmental management applicationsLinks to an external site. Science of the total environment, 613, 1275-1283. Sustainability • Building codes • Policy regulations • Economic incentives Resilience • Earthquake retrofits Resilience response in Urban Systems Examples – Hardening pipes expanding capacity of the supply source If completely absorbed throughout the system, the fail-safe threshold

would be pushed out in time and line a) would be followed; if partly absorbed, line b) would be followed. Figure 4. Conceptual system performance curve when exposed to a sudden disruption. a) No impact from predicted disruption. b) Impact from predicted disruption. c) Impact from unpredicted disruption. Crozier, A, et. al (2024) Resilience framework for urban water supply systems planning. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 9(4), 386-406 Unified View •Marchese, D., Reynolds, E, Bates, M E, Morgan, H, Clark, S S, & Linkov, I (2018) Resilience and sustainability: Similarities and differences in environmental management applicationsLinks to an external site. Science of the total environment, 613, 1275-1283. Resilience response in Urban Systems If the fail-safe threshold is crossed, proactive adaptive capacity would determine the safe-fail performance of the system. Figure 5. Conceptual system performance curve when facing a predicted gradual disruption.

Magnification of sudden disruption included to illustrate time scales, and of critical safe-fail threshold to show details. Crozier, A, et. al (2024) Resilience framework for urban water supply systems planning. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure, 9(4), 386-406 If all out collapse in cities are to be avoided, how do we release and reconstruct function? System State Natural/Adaptive Resilience Time Focusing on adaptive and interconnected processes where the release stage is a reconstruction, and reorganization of systems Figure - A regenerative community boundary - An open system functioning as a closed system Learning to ‘manage’ creative destruction so that ‘undesirable’ change is infrequent “A regenerative framework for resilient city function” – working paper in progress, do not cite. This means allowing change at other levels of the Panarchy cycle A regenerative framework for resilient city function Panarchy Cycles C. F Kurtz and D J Snowden,

"The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated world," in IBM Systems Journal, vol. 42, no 3, pp 462-483, 2003, doi: 10.1147/sj4230462 Regeneration Interconnected system function Resilience/ Capacity + Sustainable Development Centralized function independent systems Garmestani, A., Twidwell, D, Angeler, D G, Sundstrom, S, Barichievy, C., Chaffin, B C, & Allen, C R (2020) Panarchy: opportunities and challenges for ecosystem management. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 18(10), 576-583. Function Energy Water Economics Governance . Ecology . Figure - individual systems moving through growth, reconstruction, and reorganization to function as a regenerative system “A regenerative framework for resilient city function” – working paper in progress, do not cite. Supporting Regenerative and Creative Destruction Pre quantifying behaviour/ measuring the adaptive response EMEA Systems Engineering conference in Sevilla 2023

delegates discussed the need to dynamically integrate human impact – Many others still think in linear regressions - humans are messy Planned adaptation The Stack Melbourne, Australia Designed for adaptive function Thank you steve.conrad@colostateedu