Environmental protection | Water management » Ove-Hans - The Impact of Climate Change and Ocean Acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its Tourist Industry

Source: http://www.doksinet Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry Prepared by Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Centre for Marine Studies, University of Queensland Hans Hoegh-Guldberg, Economic Strategies Pty Ltd June 2008 Contents 1 Aim of this paper . 2 2 Background . 3 3 The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park . 4 4 Threats to the long-term sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef . 6 5 Global factors: climate change and ocean acidification. 7 6 Future changes to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park as a result of climate change and ocean acidification. 10 7 Possible implications of climate change for tourism in Australia . 13 8 Implications of changes to the Great Barrier Reef. 14 9 Further implications of climate change for Australian tourism . 16 10 Australia in the world tourism market. 18 11 Consequences for Australian tourism . 19 12 Potential responses and adaptation

strategies of Great Barrier Reef tourism to climate change . 21 13 The need for further research . 22 14 Conclusions. 24 15 Acknowledgments . 25 16 References. 26 Appendix 1 Vulnerable tourist regions, Australia . 28 Appendix 2 Physical climate scenarios. 33 Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 1 Source: http://www.doksinet 1 Aim of this paper Climate change is the most significant environmental, economic and social issue of our time. It is also one of the most supported scientific ideas, receiving the attention of thousands of scientists who have defined it, argued for and against it, and have built up one of the most significant bodies of scientific evidence ever established. Publication of the fourth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in 2007: ‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal’ and that ‘Most of the

observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.’ Climate threatens a series of natural, economic and social systems, and if allowed to proceed unrestrained, will lead to major changes in the way we lead our lives and conduct our business as a nation. According to the fourth assessment report, coral reefs are among a series of ecosystems that are highly threatened by rapid anthropogenic climate change. This paper summaries the current state of knowledge about this threat to Australia’s Great Barrier Reef; the biological consequences and resulting social and economic ramifications of these changes for Great Barrier Reef tourism, and by extension Australian tourism generally. The Great Barrier Reef itself attracts an estimated $2 billionplus into the Australian economy, and has provided employment for over 60,000 Queenslanders The consequences of losing this

magnificent ecosystem, and hence its iconic, social and economic importance, are serious. The aim of this study is to outline, summarise and discuss the issue of climate change for the Great Barrier Reef and its highly productive tourism industry. Given the space available, this paper is not intended as an exhaustive review of the science and economics of how climate change is likely to affect the Great Barrier Reef and its associated industries. This is done in detail elsewhere (HoeghGuldberg 1999, Done et al 2002, Hoegh-Guldberg and Hoegh-Guldberg 2003, Donner et al 2005, Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007) This article builds on this earlier work and uses the information gathered to explore a range of scenarios for Queensland and the Australian economy as a result of mild to severe impacts on the Great Barrier Reef. This article concludes with a discussion of future research requirements for building an effective policy response to the challenges that climate change poses for the Great

Barrier Reef and its associated tourist industry. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 2 Source: http://www.doksinet 2 Background Coral reefs line the coastline of hundreds of countries that are located between latitude 30°S and latitude 30°N. Here, they build complex and biologically diverse ecosystems that form the basis for tourism and fishing industries that provide in excess of $200 billion per annum as well as livelihood from subsistence fishing to as many as 100 million people from these countries (Bryant et al. 1998) Coral reefs require hard substrates in shallow waters (generally < 40 m) which have water temperatures that remain above 18°C and carbonate ion concentrations of the least 200 µmol kg-1 (Kleypas et al. 1999) Coral reefs don’t do well close to rivers where the inundation of freshwater and sediments will slow the growth of, or smother, corals. More

recently, rivers have been found to exert an even greater influence on the health of corals due to the fact that many now carry larger amounts of sediments, nutrients and toxins due to the destabilisation of river catchment areas by increased land-clearing and intensive coastal agriculture (McCulloch et al. 2003) Corals are among the simplest multicellular animals and are related to anemones, jellyfish and hydroids. They naturally lie at the heart of coral reefs Not all corals build coral reefs Those that build the limestone-like frameworks of coral reefs, however, all form symbioses with tiny plant like organisms known as dinoflagellates (‘zooxanthellae’; review, see Hoegh-Guldberg 1999). Symbiotic dinoflagellates (which actually live inside the cells of their coral hosts) allow corals to capture sunlight in large quantities and to grow rapidly in the shallow clear coastal waters typical of many tropical and subtropical coastal areas. The abundant energy captured allows corals to

lay down large amounts of calcium carbonate (as aragonite) and build the enormous, three-dimensional structures that typify coral reefs. These intricate and magnificent reef structures house over one million species (ReakaKudla 1996) In addition to housing a significant part of the ocean’s biodiversity, coral reefs also provide a significant coastal barrier that protects other mangrove and sea grass ecosystems, which in turn play important roles in providing habitat for a large number of key fisheries species. This protection is also important to significant amounts of human infrastructure that line the world’s coastlines including tropical and sub-tropical Australia. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 3 Source: http://www.doksinet 3 The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park The Great Barrier Reef is one of the world’s most spectacular coral reef ecosystems. Lining almost 2,100 km

of coastline, the Great Barrier Reef is the largest continuous coral reef ecosystem in the world. It is home to an amazing variety of marine organisms including 6 species of marine turtles, 24 species of seabirds, over 30 species of marine mammals, 350 coral species, 4,000 species of molluscs and 1,500 fish species. The total number of species number into the hundreds of thousands New species are described each year, and some estimates suggest perhaps we are only familiar with less than 50% of the total number of species that live within this amazing ecosystem. The Great Barrier Reef is also considered to be one of the most pristine ecosystems, which is a consequence of a relatively low human population pressure (as compared to other regions like Indonesia where hundreds of millions of people live directly adjacent to coral reefs) and a modern and well-resourced management agency, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, which practices state-of-the-art, science-based

environmental management. The Park was established in 1975 by the Federal Government and was proclaimed a World Heritage Area in 1981. Since 1975, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park has existed as a multi-use park system, involving a patchwork of managed areas across its 375,000 square kilometres that range from areas that are completely open to commercial and recreational fishing (‘blue zones’) to areas that are closed to all activities (‘green zones’). Up until recently, only 46% of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park was designated as falling within ‘green’ zones. In 2003, however, after an exhaustive information gathering and redesign process (Representative Areas Program or RAP, GBRMPA 2008a), the Australian Federal Parliament passed legislation that rezoned the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park so that over 33% of the Park is now designed as green no-take zones. This change occurred in response to a vastly improved knowledge of the Great Barrier Reef (after almost three

decades of research) and growing evidence of deterioration of some areas of the Park under the influence of range of pressures arising from human activities. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 4 Source: http://www.doksinet Figure 1 Map of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (courtesy of GBRMPA) Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 5 Source: http://www.doksinet 4 Threats to the long-term sustainability of the Great Barrier Reef Coral reefs like the Great Barrier Reef are threatened by both local (e.g water quality, coastal degradation, pollution and fishing pressure) and global (e.g global warming, ocean acidification) stressors. These two categories of stress are distinguished in terms of whether particular stresses acting on a coral reef arise from ‘local’ sources such as a

fishing industry, or from ‘global’ changes to the earth’s atmosphere and climate. Both local and global factors have already had major impacts on coral reefs. For example, the over-exploitation of coral reef species in many countries has led to the major decline in key fish species on coral reefs (e.g herbivorous fish) which have led in turn to major changes in the ecological structure of coral reefs. The major decline of reef-building corals on Caribbean reefs over the past 40 years (from >60% in 1970 to less than 10% coral cover today; Hughes 1995) has been mainly attributed to the removal of herbivorous fish by over-populated coastal regions. Because herbivorous fish are important in the maintenance of the ecological balance between seaweeds and corals, their removal is considered as the prime reason why Caribbean coral reefs have became overgrown by seaweeds and lost their dominant communities of corals (Hughes 1995; Jackson et al. 2001) While overexploitation has affected

some parts of the Great Barrier Reef, there is a general perception that the main threats to the Great Barrier Reef stem more from reduced water quality (i.e increased nutrients and sediments) as a result of agricultural activities in coastal Queensland as opposed to the fishing of herbivorous species (which does not occur to any real extent). Agricultural activities have resulted in a tenfold increase in the flux of sediments (and probably nutrients) down the rivers of Queensland starting soon after the arrival of European farmers, hard-hoofed cattle and coastal agriculture (McCulloch et al. 2003) The increased nutrient and sediment levels flowing out of these disturbed river catchments and coastal areas is most likely to have driven some of the loss of inshore Great Barrier Reef coral reefs (i.e first 1–5 km of coastal reef system) One of the most graphic illustrations of the slow and insidious changes in the condition of corals along the Queensland coastline is the comparison of

photos taken 100 years with those taken of the same area today (Wachenfeld 1997). In most cases, these paired photographs reveal that rich coral-dominated communities were once common along the coast of Queensland whereas today they are not. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 6 Source: http://www.doksinet 5 Global factors: climate change and ocean acidification Changes to the greenhouse gas content (principally CO2 and methane) have driven changes to the average temperature of the planet, which have in turn driven changes to the temperature of the upper layers of the ocean. The upper layers of the ocean are now 07°C warmer than they were was 100 years ago. As a result, the Great Barrier Reef waters are 04°C warmer than they were 30 years ago (Lough 2007). Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide has also resulted in 01 pH decrease (ie the ocean has become more acidic) which has

removed 30–40 μmol kg-1 carbonate ions from ocean bodies like the coral sea that normally contain between 250–300 μmol kg-1 (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2007). In addition to the size of the absolute change, global conditions have varied at unprecedented rates of change. Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (hence carbonate ion concentrations) and sea temperature has increased at rates that are 2–3 orders of magnitude faster than the majority of changes that have occurred over the past 420,000 years at least (see Table 1 in Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007, Science, Dec 2007) These changes in the conditions surrounding coral reefs have already had major impacts on coral reefs. Short periods of warm sea temperature, once probably harmless but now building on the higher sea temperatures due to climate change, have pushed corals and their dinoflagellate symbionts above their thermal tolerance. This has resulted in episodes of mass coral bleaching that have increased in frequency and intensity

since they were first reported in the scientific literature in 1979 (see reviews by Brown 1997, Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007) Coral bleaching (Fig. 2) occurs when the symbiosis between corals and their critically important dinoflagellate symbionts breaks down. This can occur for a number of reasons, one of which is heat stress The result of the breakdown of the symbiosis is that the brown dinoflagellate symbionts leave the otherwise translucent coral tissue, leaving corals to remain as a stark white colour (hence, ‘bleached’). In 1998, most coral reefs worldwide experienced mass coral bleaching over a 12 month period that began in the eastern Pacific in December 1997. While many coral reef communities recovered from the subsequent 12 month period of extremely warm sea temperatures (driven by an unusually strong El Niño disturbance on top of the steadily rising sea temperatures globally), many coral reefs such as those in the Western Indian Ocean, Okinawa, Palau

and Northwest Australia were devastated by bleaching and the subsequent mass mortality event. In these cases, coral bleaching was followed by mass mortalities that removed over 90% of the resident corals on these reef systems. At the end of the 12 month period, bleaching across the globe had removed an estimated 16% of the world’s coral (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999). Whereas some of these reefs have started to recover, recovery has been exceedingly slow and coral cover does not resemble that seen on these reefs prior to 1998 (Wilkerson 2004). Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 7 Source: http://www.doksinet Figure 2 A. Coral reef after experiencing mass coral bleaching (Great Keppel Island, southern Great Barrier Reef) B Close-up of bleached coral showing intact but translucent tissues over the white skeleton. Photos by O HoeghGuldberg A. B. The Great Barrier Reef has been affected by

coral bleaching as a result of heat stress six times over the past 25 years. Recent episodes on the Great Barrier Reef have been the most intense and widespread. In 1998, the Great Barrier Reef experienced what was considered at the time as its worst case of mass coral bleaching. In this event over 50% of the coral reefs within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park were affected. This was followed, however, by an even larger event in 2002 which affected over 60% of the reefs with the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. Fortunately in both cases, only 5–10% of corals affected by coral bleaching died, which was far less than the mortalities seen in regions such as the Western Indian Ocean or Northwest Australia (ranging up to 46%; HoeghGuldberg 1999). It is significant that coral bleaching is now considered ‘to pose the greatest long-term risks to the Great Barrier Reef’ (GBRMPA 2008b). The changes in the water chemistry that have arisen as a result of ocean acidification, is adding

additional pressure on coral reefs. Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide is entering the ocean in ever-increasing amounts. Once in the ocean, carbon dioxide combines with water to produce a weak acid, carbonic acid, which subsequently converts carbonate ions into bicarbonate ions. This leads to a decrease in the concentration of carbonate ions, which ultimately limits the rate of marine calcification (Figure 3). A recent study has found a 20% decrease in the growth of corals on the Great Barrier Reef (Cooper et al. 2008), which appears to be a direct result of the changing conditions. While we are just starting to understand the impacts of ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef, there is consensus that the rate of change in the acidity of the ocean poses as great a threat to coral reefs as does global warming (Raven et al. 2005; Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2007) Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier

Reef and its tourist industry 8 Source: http://www.doksinet Figure 3 Schematic diagram showing the link between atmospheric carbon dioxide, ocean acidity and the calcification rates of coral reefs and other ecosystems. Insert diagram depicts relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 atm) and ocean carbonate concentrations. (Reprinted courtesy of Science Magazine) Ocean Acidification Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 9 Source: http://www.doksinet 6 Future changes to the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park as a result of climate change and ocean acidification Climate change and ocean acidification are placing coral reefs in conditions that they have not experienced over the past 740,000 years, if not 20 million years (Raven et al 2004; Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2007). These changes are occurring at rates which dwarf even the most rapid changes seen over the past million

years. Even the relatively rapid changes during the ice age transitions, which resulted in major changes in the biota of the planet, occurred at rates of change in carbon dioxide and temperature which were at least two orders of magnitude (i.e one hundred times) slower than the rate of change that has occurred over the past 150 years. Most evidence suggests that this rate of change exceeds the biological capacity of coral reefs to respond via genetic change (evolution). As a result, there is a high degree of consensus within scientific circles that coral reefs, like a large number of other ecosystems, are set to change rapidly over the coming decades (IPCC 2007, Done et al. 2003) Consideration has recently been given to how reef systems like the Great Barrier Reef will change in response to changes in atmospheric gas composition. In this regard, a recent paper (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007) concluded that carbonate coral reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef are unlikely to maintain

themselves beyond atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of 450 ppm. Neither temperature (+2°C above pre-industrial global temperatures) nor ocean carbonate concentration -1 (<200 μmol kg ) in these scenarios are suitable for coral growth and survival, or the maintenance of calcium carbonate reef structures. These conclusions are based on the observation of how coral reefs behave today and how they have responded to the relatively mild changes in ocean temperature so far. Mass coral bleaching, for example, is triggered at temperatures that are 1°C above the long-term summer maxima. Coral reefs also do not accrete calcium carbonate or form limestone-like coral reefs in water that has less than 200 µmol kg-1 carbonate ion concentrations (roughly equivalent to an aragonite saturation of 3.25) These conditions will dominate tropical oceans if carbon dioxide concentrations exceed 450 ppm (Fig. 4) Taking the two drivers together allows a projection of how the condition of Great

Barrier Reef will change if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide continue to grow. In terms of the reference scenarios for this review, the critical point for carbonate coral reef systems like the Great Barrier Reef arise when carbon dioxide concentrations exceed 450 ppm. Using the evidence and conclusions of the Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) study, in turn based on previous studies (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Donner et al. 2003, Hoegh-Guldberg and Hoegh-Guldberg 2003), three basic scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef can be assigned (Figure 5). It is important that the three scenarios in Figure 5 be seen as representing a continuum of change and not a set of discrete thresholds or ‘tipping points’. That said, it is also noteworthy that coral reefs regularly show non-linear behaviour (i.e minimal change for a period and then a sudden and catastrophic decline in once dominant species as an environmental variable changes) and, hence, while we don’t know where these

‘breakpoints’ exist relative to particular concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, it is crucial to understand that there is a significant likelihood that ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef might experience phase-transitions such as those already seen in the Caribbean and other coral reef realms (Hughes 1995). Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 10 Source: http://www.doksinet Figure 4 Calculated values for aragonite saturation, which is a measure of the ease with which calcium carbonate crystals (aragonite) form, as a function of geography. Coral reefs today only form where the aragonite saturation exceeds 3.25, which is illustrated by the blue coloured areas (coral reefs found today are indicated in this panel by the pink dots). As the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases from 383 ppm today, the extent of conditions that are suitable for the

formation of carbon coral reefs dwindles until there are few areas with these conditions left at 550 ppm and above. Ocean acidification represents a serious threat to carbonate reef systems and may see the loss and decay of reef structures across the entire tropical region of the world (Reprinted courtesy of Science Magazine; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007) In the case of minimal climate change (scenario C) atmospheric carbon dioxide stabilises at 420 ppm. In this case, conditions surrounding the Great Barrier Reef will largely resemble those of today with the following important differences. Firstly, mass coral bleaching events are likely to be more frequent and intense relative to those that have occurred over the past 25 years. Based on modelling studies (Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Done et al. 2002, Donner et al 2003), mass coral bleaching events are likely to be twice as frequent as they are today if sea temperatures surrounding the Great Barrier Reef increase another 0.55°C over and above

today’s temperatures Changes in the sea temperature of this magnitude will also increase the intensity of the thermal anomalies which, depending on the particular phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and longer term changes in sea temperature such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), will result in large scale impacts on coral reefs like the Great Barrier Reef. This will result in a greater likelihood of mass mortalities among coral communities, and an overall downward adjustment of average coral cover on coral reefs like those in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007) Some areas may lose coral permanently while Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 11 Source: http://www.doksinet others, such as those in well flushed and ecologically resilient locations (e.g with good water quality, intact fish populations), are likely to remain coral dominated.

Secondly, there is likely to be a shift towards reduced three-dimensional reef frameworks as concentrations of carbonate ions decrease and become limiting for the calcifying activities of corals. This may remove the habitat for some species (e.g coral-dwelling fish and invertebrate species) while it may increase habitat for others (e.g some herbivorous fish species) It is important to appreciate that reefs are likely to be populated by some form of marine life. Equally importantly, the replacement organisms are unlikely to match (replace) the beautiful and charismatic coral reefs that we currently enjoy. The importance of marine parks in protecting and maintaining conditions for coral reefs would increase in importance in Scenarios B and C (Appendix 2). Several studies have shown that the recovery of coral reefs (and hence their long-term sustainability) after climate change disturbances such as coral bleaching events is faster if the affected reef is protected from local stresses like

poor water quality and over exploitation of herbivorous fish (Hughes et al. 2003, Hughes et al 2007) If atmospheric CO2 increases beyond 450 ppm, large-scale changes to coral reefs would be inevitable. Under these conditions, reef-building corals would be unable to keep pace with the rate of physical and biological erosion, and coral reefs would slowly shift towards non-carbonate reef ecosystems. Reef ecosystems at this point would resemble a mixed assemblage of fleshy seaweed, soft corals and other non-calcifying organisms, with reef-building corals being much less abundant (even rare). As a result, the three-dimensional structure of coral reefs would slowly crumble and disappear. Depending on the influence of other factors such as the intensity of storms, this process may happen at either slow or rapid rates. It is significant to note that this has happened relatively quickly (over of an estimated 30 to 50 years) on some inshore Great Barrier Reef sites. The loss of the

three-dimensional structure has significant implications for other coral reef dwelling species such as fish populations where an estimated 50% of the fish species are likely to disappear with the loss of the reef-building corals and the calcium carbonate framework of coral reefs (Munday et al. 2007) Loss of the calcium carbonate framework would also have implications for the protection provided by coral reefs to other ecosystems (e.g mangroves and sea grasses) and human infrastructure, as well as industries such as tourism which depends on highly by diverse and beautiful ecosystems. While coral reefs under this scenario would retain considerable biodiversity, their appearance would be vastly different to the coral reefs that attract tourists today (Fig 5B). If CO2 atm exceeds 500 ppm and conditions approach those of scenario A (as well as scenarios R1 and R2), conditions will exceed those required for the majority of coral reefs across the planet (Fig 4). Under these conditions, the

three-dimensional structure of coral reef ecosystems like the Great Barrier Reef would be expected to deteriorate, with a massive loss of biodiversity and ecological function. Many of the concerns raised in a recent vulnerability assessment (Johnson and Marshall 2007) would become a reality, and most groups on the Great Barrier Reef would undergo major change. As argued by many other coral reef scientists (eg Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2007; IPCC 2007), the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide 500 ppm (expected under scenario A, R1 and R2) would result in scenarios where any semblance of reefs to the coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park today would vanish. The net effect of losing the structure and biodiversity of the Great Barrier Reef on tourism is likely to be significant at this point. These scenarios and their impact on one of Australia’s most productive industries are discussed in the next sections of this paper. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate

change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 12 Source: http://www.doksinet 7 Possible implications of climate change for tourism in Australia The next sections will analyse the implications of changes to the Great Barrier Reef and will then proceed to consider possible implications for total Australian tourism under climate change. Loss of tourism income to the Great Barrier Reef regions does not equal loss of tourism income for Australia, because some of the tourism dollar will be spent elsewhere in the country, and Australian tourists may become less inclined to travel overseas. Based on an analysis of all Australia’s tourism regions, we will discuss the total impact of climate change on tourism in these other regions, and will consider (qualitatively) how much of tourism lost to the coastal regions along the Great Barrier Reef may be diverted to other parts of Australia. Based on a recent report for the October 2007 Davos conference on

climate change and tourism (WTO et al. 2007), we conclude with an analysis of world tourism under climate change to provide a perspective on Australia’s competitive position in the international tourism market, including the likely competitive position of the Great Barrier Reef. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 13 Source: http://www.doksinet 8 Implications of changes to the Great Barrier Reef In 1998–99, the value of tourism as a contribution to total gross regional product in the five regions adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef was about $2.0 billion (in 2000–01 prices) This compared with a total tourism GDP of $6.3 billion for Queensland (Hoegh-Guldberg and Hoegh-Guldberg 2003) The tourism satellite accounts for Australia for 2005–06 amounted to 3.9% of total GDP, or $376 billion (ABS 2007). Recent accommodation statistics for Queensland amount to about 28% of Australia.

This suggests that tourism’s contribution to Queensland’s Gross State Product in 2005–06 was about $10.5 billion, in prices applying to that year It could be slightly higher, reflecting a greater ratio of holiday makers to total visitors in Queensland than in other states. The research into the economic value of tourism in the regions along the Great Barrier Reef (HoeghGuldberg and Hoegh-Guldberg 2003) benefited from a unique compilation of regional statistics showing the contribution of tourism to each Queensland region (OESR 2002). Tourism, of course, is not the only industry that contributes to the economic product of these regions through exports. Prominent primary industries include beef, sugar, horticulture and fisheries, and there are strong contributions from coal mining from the Mackay hinterland, bauxite from Weipa and aluminium smelting in Gladstone. Tourism is, however, an integral part of these regional economics. Its share of total regional economic product (which

includes the local industries generated by exports from the regions) amounted to 7.1% for the five regions in 1998–99. Its contribution to the Far (‘Tropical’) North Queensland region was double that (14.4%), compared with 51% in the Northern region around Townsville, 61% in Mackay, 3.6% in Fitzroy, and 59% in Wide Bay-Burnett Employment in tourism in the five regions was even higher relative to total employment in these regions, at 10% (16.3% in Far North Queensland), reflecting the labour-intensive nature of tourism. Figure 5 Projected changes to tropical reef ecosystems as a result of global warming and ocean acidification A. Reference scenario C B. Reference scenario B C. Reference scenariosA, R1 and R2 A. If atmospheric carbon dioxide levels stabilise at 420 ppm (reference scenario C), conditions will be similar to today except that mass bleaching events will be twice as common and will be more severe on reefs like the Great Barrier Reef. B Atmospheric carbon dioxide

concentrations that increase to around 450 ppm, together with a global temperature rise of 1°C above today, a major decline in reef-building corals is expected (reference scenario B). Because carbonate ion concentrations will fall below that required by corals to calcify and keep up with the erosion of calcium carbonate reef frameworks, reef frameworks will increasingly erode and fall apart. Seaweeds, soft corals and other benthic organisms will replace reef building corals as the dominant organism on these much simpler reef systems. C Greater levels of carbon dioxide build up in the atmosphere, and associated temperature change (reference scenarios A, R1 and R2) will be catastrophic for coral reefs which will no longer be dominated by corals or many of the organisms that we recognize today. Reef frameworks will active deteriorate at this point, with ramifications for marine biodiversity, coastal protection and tourism Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and

ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 14 Source: http://www.doksinet Not all the tourism in these regions is related to the existence of a relatively pristine reef. Some people are business visitors, others come to see friends and relatives rather than the reef, and some holidaymakers don’t come to experience the reef. It was important to estimate the proportion of total tourism generated by an interest in the reef as such. A James Cook University paper using principal components analysis (Pearce et al. 1997), though dated, provided the best clue It allowed an estimate to be made (Hoegh-Guldberg and Hoegh-Guldberg 2003) that 62% of total visitor nights represented reef-interested tourism, with the highest proportions in the two main ‘tourism hubs’ of Tropical North Queensland (90%) and the Whitsundays (72%). The highest observation in the rest of the regions along the reef was for the Northern region around Townsville (65%), followed by

Fitzroy which include the main centres of Rockhampton and Gladstone (55%), Mackay region other than the Whitsundays which is a separate tourist region (43%), and Wide Bay-Burnett at the southern border of the reef (23%). These figures make sense in relation to the known distribution of reef areas and tourist resorts. The proportion of estimated reef-interested tourism differs depending on the origin of visitors. In the total area, 43% of intrastate visitor nights were associated with interest in the reef, compared with 69% for interstate and 82% for inbound visitors. In Tropical North Queensland, the proportions were 79% for intrastate, 92% for interstate and 93% for inbound visitors. In the Northern region, the proportions were 59%, 69% and 81%, respectively, and in the Whitsundays, 58%, 78%, and 75% (Hoegh-Guldberg and Hoegh-Guldberg 2003). Clearly, these regions are sensitive to the effects of climate change, especially Tropical North Queensland. In addition, this region showed the

strongest growth rate among all the regions according to the available evidence, and therefore has the furthest to fall given the advent of adverse conditions. In summary, the dependence of the tourism industry on a healthy Great Barrier Reef is enormous. Given that the total annual value of tourism to the Queensland economy is in the order of $10 billion, and the share of the reef regions close to one-third of the total value, the reef-interested tourism economy most at risk is in excess of $2 billion in current dollars. The Tropical North Queensland region accounts for about 45% of this figure, close to $1 billion. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 15 Source: http://www.doksinet 9 Further implications of climate change for Australian tourism Especially in an international perspective, Northern Queensland and the Great Barrier Reef loom largest among Australia’s tourism

regions, but the area is rich in other natural attractions, above all Tropical North Queensland. Australia’s role as a tourism magnet and how this could be affected by climate change is the subject of the next sections. Coral reefs are only one category of tourist attractions that could be affected by climate change. The full list of such attractions includes coral reefs; mountains, snow and alpine ecosystems; rainforests and other national parks; native flora; wetlands; mangroves; whale watching; recreational fishing; beaches; and vineyards (there are others as well but these would account for the vast bulk of vulnerable tourist activities). Some of these may appear to be supplementary rather than major attractions, but they all have their own characteristic features and particular strengths in individual tourist regions in Australia. An analysis of the prospective risks associated with each feature, and their combined impact in each of 77 Australian tourism regions, can be found in

Hoegh-Guldberg (2008). Appendix 1 is taken from that paper. The analysis also identifies and incorporates five major deterrents working against the positive attractions of a particular region under conditions of climate change. They are salinity, bushfires, ultraviolet radiation, urban heat, and disease and accidents. Each region was rated on each of these fifteen factors (ten groups of attractions and five deterrents) on a scale from five (extreme potential exposure) to nil (no significant exposure). The approach, while subjective and explorative in nature, went a considerable way towards identifying the most vulnerable features of the Australian industry in conditions of climate change. Among the 77 tourism regions, it identified the following five as the most threatened (see Appendix 1 for detail): • Tropical North Queensland, the hub of Great Barrier Reef tourism, in addition to the coral reef contains severely threatened rainforest areas, beaches in danger of inundation and

increasing storm damage, and threats to fishing and from bushfires and ultraviolet radiation. The region emerges as by far the most threatened in Australia. The threat to the region is exacerbated by a high reliance on international holiday tourism, liable to be relatively easily diverted elsewhere, and currently accounting for more than 50% of total holiday tourist bed nights. • Southwest Western Australia is the scene of Australia’s sole biodiversity hotspot, one of only twenty-five in the world. It has high risk ratings based on national parks, the greatest diversity of vulnerable native flora, a strong but vulnerable wine industry, and together with the MurrayDarling Basin, the greatest salinity problem in the country. It attracts a large number of holiday tourists, but not many are international visitors. • The Top End of the Northern Territory is at risk for its national parks, wetlands, increased ultraviolet radiation, urban heat, and disease. It also attracts many

holiday tourists, and more than one-fifth of bed nights represents inbound holiday visitors. • The region centred on Townsville is at comparatively high risk mainly due to its national parks and rainforests, its recreational fishing, and increased ultraviolet exposure, as well as being situated along the Great Barrier Reef. It attracts a moderate number of holiday tourists (nowhere near the number going to Tropical North Queensland), of whom slightly more than one-fifth on a total bed night basis represents international visitors. • The fifth region most at risk is Gascoyne alongside the Western Australian coral coast (Ningaloo Reef). While having other strengths in the tourist industry, the main one under threat is the reef, which has been rated increasingly at risk in reviews of environmental health over the past five years (Hoegh-Guldberg 2008). Tourism to date has been fairly modest, especially from overseas While referring to Hoegh-Guldberg (2008) for a full description

of this analysis, and Appendix 1 for numerical detail, the following observations apply to threats on a state-by-state basis: Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 16 Source: http://www.doksinet Queensland is most at risk in terms of absolute number of tourist nights, especially the Tropical North. Western Australia has the largest number of regions at relatively high risk for a variety of reasons, and its tourist industry is rated relatively most vulnerable to climate change. The Top End of the Northern Territory is also rated at high risk; other parts of the Territory less so. New South Wales is rated at moderate risk (except its northern regions), and the southern states of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania at least risk overall. This does not mean that these states or even any individual region within them are without risk. It is impossible to identify one part of Australia

that is. Figure 6 Most at-risk tourism destinations for mid to late 21st century* Figure 6: Most-at-risk tourism destinations for mid to late 21st century* North Carib- South Northern MediterAmerica bean America Europe ranian Africa Middle Southeast Indian Pacific Australia/ East Asia Ocean* Ocean NZ Defined as hotspot Warmer summers Warmer winters Increase in extreme events Sea level rise Land biodiversity loss Marine biodiversity loss Water scarcity Political destabilisation Increase in disease outbreaks Travel cost increase* ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” ” * Key destination vulnerabilities are identified at sub-regional level in full technical report (not yet released as at mid-January 2008) * Small island nations * From mitigation policy Source: UN World Tourism Organization, UN Environment Program and

World Meterological Organization, Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to global challenges. Advanced summary October 2007 Background information for the Second International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, Davos, Switzerland 1-3 October 2007 Figure 6. The Davos conference on climate change and tourism in October 2007 concluded that of the world’s ten major tourism regions five were defined as ‘hotspots’, especially threatened. These include Australia and New Zealand and the neighbouring regions of small-island nations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Each region was rated according to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change listed in the left-hand column. Only one other region, the Caribbean, equals Australia and New Zealand in being threatened by eight of the ten criteria. The full Davos background paper, when available, will show assessments by subregions. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great

Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 17 Source: http://www.doksinet 10 Australia in the world tourism market The second international conference on climate change and tourism in Davos in 2007 made further progress towards defining tourist industry competitiveness in the advent of significant climate change. The summary of its report on the subject (WTO et al. 2007) identified ten criteria setting out the disadvantages of each of ten regions of the world. Furthermore, it designated five of these regions as ‘hotspots’ at particular risk. These regions were the Caribbean, Mediterranean, small island nations in the Indian Ocean, small island nations in the Pacific, and Australia/New Zealand. This is a dire warning. Figure 6 shows that Australia scored weaknesses on eight of ten criteria Land biodiversity loss and political destabilisation were the only criteria not rated as special weaknesses. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on

the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 18 Source: http://www.doksinet 11 Consequences for Australian tourism The fossil-intensive climate change scenario A1FI with rapid economic growth, a world population peaking around 2050 and rapid technological change may be regarded as close to worst-case, when considered without any mitigation policies. This has consequences for all Australian tourism but especially for the Tropical North the site of a great amount of holiday tourism, a large percentage of which is from overseas. This assessment must be prefaced by two considerations: the world depicted by the A1FI scenario will grow rapidly which, other things being equal, should benefit total tourism industry growth, and the tourism industry is renowned for its resilience and adaptability. So we are discussing what might be tourism patterns under a scenario causing great environmental damage to our most sensitive natural resources and ecosystems, and putting great constraints on

long-haul air travel, compared with what might have been in the absence of climate change. We need to move from global analysis of tourism patterns which defines Australia as part of the most vulnerable hotspots in the world, toward regional analysis of future tourism patterns within Australia, before drawing the consequences for the Great Barrier Reef. This analysis is by necessity qualitative rather than based on economic modelling, which in any case would have to be very complex. This paper concentrates on the part of total tourism that is holiday-related, and which may be expected to be particularly influenced by deteriorating tourist attractions. Business tourism may be influenced for reasons such as remote meeting arrangements compensating for increasingly expensive air travel as fuel prices rise. Visiting friends and relatives is also comparatively unaffected by the state of the tourist attractions but like business tourism may be discouraged from long-distance air and ground

travel by rising fuel prices. The project specification for this paper sets no date for the perspective to be adopted, other than specifying an increase in mean temperature at 4.5°C by 2100 in the reference scenarios R1 and R2 Obviously things will get worse as the century progresses, in the absence of mitigating action. This applies whether a wet or dry climate is postulated for Australia, though these variants of the A1FI scenario will have different effects on different regions. In a qualitative way, we are applying a medium to long term focus in our comments, say up to 2050. World tourism patterns: Australia viewed as a total destination will suffer as an international tourism destination due to a combination of the local factors highlighted in Figure 6, of which the most crucial, at least in the dry variant, may well be water scarcity. The impact will be aggravated by the last item on the list: travel cost increase. Australia, according to this, is destined to lose market share

of international tourism. Tourism within Australia: Generally speaking, Western Australia will be relatively most vulnerable over the coming decades, especially under the dry version of the A1FI world. Southwest Western Australia is particularly vulnerable, and Gascoyne along the Ningaloo Reef almost as much. The main vulnerabilities of Queensland are in the north, while high-level tourism areas such as the Gold and Sunshine Coasts may retain some relative advantages despite risks of sea level rises, storm surges and rising summer temperatures. Generally, the relatively advantaged areas are to the south (Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania). One would expect the disadvantages, especially the loss or damage of natural ecosystems, to cause a shift from the north to the south, and as far as international tourism is concerned, from Australia to destinations elsewhere, with the impact of deteriorating natural attractions to be exacerbated by a global ‘tyranny of distance’, with tourists

travelling shorter distances. On the other hand, relatively more Australians may travel domestically rather than going overseas. Great Barrier Reef: As the most vulnerable of all Australian regions, and with a high inbound tourism component, the tropical north would be relatively badly affected. Twenty or thirty years out, most factors will be militating against further growth, despite the resilience of the tourist industry which will Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 19 Source: http://www.doksinet manifest itself in experimenting with other attractions, not necessarily associated with the reef, rainforests and the region’s other current attractions. Areas further south along the reef will be less disadvantaged, since they are already relatively less attracted by the reef itself. It remains to be said that we have assumed that the A1FI world will indeed see strong economic

expansion, with currently less developed countries catching up with the current ‘first world’the current situation in China and India writ large and global. The big question is whether this is realistic or whether we are in for some rude shocks if we don’t start to mitigate the effects today. Could A1FI go badly wrong and the world could stop expanding due to a badly mismanaged global energy policy? What risks do we face? The Stern Report (2006) on the economics of climate change hinted at such risks in its economic analysis of climate change. In comparison with the A1FI scenario, sufficient mitigation to arrive at the modest projections of +1°C by 2100 will have beneficial effects on the most threatened natural resources such as Australia’s two major coral reefs, mountain snow, the biodiversity hotspot in Southwest WA, our beaches and the rest. ‘Wet’ would presumably be more beneficial than ‘dry’, at least where salinity and drought are the dominating threats. We have

been unable to consider this in detail However, it is uncertain how much the Great Barrier Reef stands to gain in the mitigation scenarios, as the mechanisms that will damage it in future (reaching the temperature tolerance threshold and having started a large-scale process of ocean acidification) are going to take considerable time to reverse with long-lasting greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere and no chance of introducing mitigating policies overnight. Similar considerations apply to other threats: warming mountain climates, increasing salinity levels, effects of sea level change and storm surges on beaches and low-lying cities, etc. The reversal process will take a long time. Much damage will have been done even if work is started tomorrow towards the ultimate target of only one degree climate change, or less, in accordance with the mitigation scenarios proposed in the project specification. We have to consider the path towards that desirable state, not merely the

ultimate target itself. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 20 Source: http://www.doksinet 12 Potential responses and adaptation strategies of Great Barrier Reef tourism to climate change Understanding how the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry might change or adapt is critical for government planning and policy development. While not all-inclusive, we feel that the following adaptive responses are likely to occur within the Great Barrier Reef tourist industries: • To the extent that world tourism is governed by multinational companies, they will look at the world as its ‘oyster’. In this respect, multinational companies will plan relatively less for Australia and relatively more for those regions of the world that are less under threat (refer Figure 6). • Within Australia, larger tour operators are likely to shift south as ecological systems change away from the

iconic states that they are in today. This may occur gradually or may be subject to particular tipping points (e.g following a series of strong bleaching events in which coral cover and reef quality deteriorate suddenly). To some extent, space and opportunity may play important roles to whether the larger operator remains in Australia or is forced offshore. • A large part of the tourist industry associated with the Great Barrier Reef consists of small operators. These operators, with lower mobility and flexibility of the larger operators, are likely to adapt the way their businesses are portrayed. Current images of pristine reef and rainforest may be replaced by those drawing more on other activities (e.g golf courses, horse riding on beaches). How successful these are likely to be will depend very much on global demand and how it may change (e.g rising wealth in China, India and other Asian countries in particular), which may falter given the relatively remote, and hence high-cost

travel, location of current tourist hubs such as Townsville and Cairns. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 21 Source: http://www.doksinet 13 The need for further research Detailed projections of the changes faced by Great Barrier Reef tourism will be important for any adaptation plan. Currently, our ability to project how the Great Barrier Reef will change is fairly limited and would benefit from a better understanding of the links between changes in the global ocean, the local oceanography and the ecology of the Great Barrier Reef. This will require partnerships between Australian research teams and collaborations with international satellite providers such as the USbased National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Our understanding of how coral reef ecosystems will change is currently limited to a few key

organisms such as corals and fish. As described in the recent comprehensive vulnerability assessment coordinated by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (Johnson and Marshall 2007), many other key groups of organisms and ecological processes are poorly described in terms of their response to climate change. It is recommended that the results of this assessment be considered in formulating a forward focused research strategy for understanding how the Great Barrier Reef will respond to climate change. The last area that requires considerable research (as regards required biological information) is the looming issue of ocean acidification. We currently have a very poor understanding of how organisms will respond to changes in ocean acidity and carbonate levels. There is growing evidence that this change will affect more than simply the calcifying organisms, and may have brought impacts on reproduction, metabolism and growth. It is also clear that this change to ocean chemistry may

interact and produce synergistic effects with changes in sea temperature and variations driven by climate change. Understanding these changes must be a priority if we are to fully understand and project the changes that are likely to occur on the Great Barrier Reef. There are also some significant gaps in our understanding of how the social and economic systems that are associated with the Great Barrier Reef will respond to climate change. Despite its importance, the ramifications of climate change for tourism is a relatively under-researched topic. A beginning was made at the Djerba conference in 2003. We look forward to be publication of final paper from the 2007 Davos conference on future patterns in world tourism which promises to be a major step (Figure 6 was derived from the summary of that paper). Research needs to be done to better understand Australia’s position in world tourism today and how this could change over the coming years according to different climate scenarios.

Although one of the background papers to the present study (Hoegh-Guldberg 2008) contains a large number of references, much of the underlying research into the various types of tourism (reef, snow, other nature based, beach, and other lesser types such as wine, whales, etc) should be tackled in a consistent framework, rather than ad hoc as now. We feel that this must be done in an objective way to avoid biased industry perspectives and distortions. A similar approach needs to be applied to regional studies of tourism in such as that in Tropical North Queensland; we still have only a limited, and possibly outdated, knowledge of which visitors are attracted to the coral reef as such, and who would still come to pursue other activities or simply for a balmy climate. An in-depth understanding of the relative vulnerabilities and interactions between regions is important in order to get the full picture of how things will change. In this regard, scenario planning as a tool has proven a

highly useful technique in strategic studies since it was introduced as a major discipline 30–40 years ago, as classical forecasting techniques became more unreliable as the world became more complex. It was a major feature of the analysis of the future of the Great Barrier Reef by our previous study (Hoegh-Guldberg and Hoegh-Guldberg 2003) and is currently being refined in another study of coral reef futures, in the Florida Keys, by one of the authors (H. Hoegh-Guldberg, for NOAA in the USA). Fully extended, scenario planning casts the net wide to cover a range of plausible futures, from ‘worst’ to ‘better’ cases, as a base for remedial long term planning. Such an approachtaking all sociocultural, technological, ecological, economic and political factors into accountstarts in the form of alternative ‘stories’ about three or four possible future worlds, covering a wide range of plausible cases. They should start at global level like the IPCC scenarios, but must also take

account of local Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 22 Source: http://www.doksinet factors generated both from scientific and economic data and equally importantly from local insights derived from local community scenario-planning workshops. Without such local contents and insights the approach is less likely to succeed, and be accepted. While based on narratives, the end result can (and should) be adapted to include projected key economic, social and environmental statistics expected in each scenario. The Great Barrier Reef scenarios included such quantitative content Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 23 Source: http://www.doksinet 14 Conclusions In reviewing the impact is of climate change on the Great Barrier Reef, several things become clear. Firstly, coral reef ecosystems

such as the Great Barrier Reef are highly vulnerable to the impacts of global warming and ocean acidification. Coral reef ecosystems will change fundamentally from the condition that they are in today if atmospheric CO2 exceeds 450 ppm. This will almost certainly affect their value to the tourist industry. Secondly, the projected shifts in tourist activity will depend ultimately on the extent of change as well as national and international competitive relationships within the tourist industry. The most vulnerable part of the tourist industry will be the smaller operators which do not have the capacity and flexibility for changing their business in response to climate change driven variation in business opportunity. Thirdly, while we have a broad understanding of the changes that are likely to occur over the next few decades and the century, there is an urgent need to understand the interaction between the Great Barrier Reef and global changes in ocean circulation and temperature, as

well as the full suite of organisms that are likely to be affected. Despite some remedial efforts since about 2003, it is also clear that a fundamental gap remains in our understanding of the dependency of the tourist industry on climate change, and the interconnectivity between national and international competitors. These gaps must be addressed as a matter of priority if we are to gain the insight and understanding that is necessary for the adaptation planning that will be required if Australia is to succeed in the coming period of global environmental stress. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 24 Source: http://www.doksinet 15 Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to the Hoegh-Guldberg/Dove research laboratory at the University of Queensland, Sophie Dove and Isobel Hoegh-Guldberg for incisive discussion surrounding impacts of climate change on corals reefs. OHG acknowledges

the support of the Coral Reef Targeted Research Project (www.gefcoralorg) and the ARC Centre for Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (www.coralcoeorgau) Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 25 Source: http://www.doksinet 16 References 1. ABS (2007) Australian Bureau of Statistics, Tourism Satellite Account 2005–06, (Cat 5249.0), Canberra http://www.absgovau/ 2. Brown B. E (1997) Coral bleaching: causes and consequences Coral Reefs 16:S129-S138 3. Bryant, D., Burke, L, McManus, J & Spalding, M 1998 Reefs at Risk World Resource Institute, Washington, DC. 4. Cooper, T. F, et al (2008) Declining coral calcification in massive Porites in two nearshore regions of the northern Great Barrier Reef. Global Change Biology 14: 529–538 5. Done, T. J, P Whetton, R Jones, R Berkelmans, J Lough, W Skirving, and S Wooldridge (2003), Global climate change and coral bleaching on the

Great Barrier Reef, final report to the State of Queensland Greenhouse Taskforce, Dep. of Nat Resour and Min, Townsville, Australia 6. Donner, S.D, Skirving, WJ, Little, CM, Oppenheimer, M, and Hoegh-Guldberg, O (2005) Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob Change Biol 11, 1–15. 7. GBRMPA (2008a) Representative Areas Program, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority http://www.gbrmpagovau/corp site/key issues/conservation/rep areas (accessed 28/1/08) 8. GBRMPA (2008b) http://www.gbrmpagovau/corp site/info services/publications/sotr/latest updates/corals/part 04html (accessed 28/1/08). 9. Hoegh-Guldberg O. (1999) Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs Mar Freshwater Res. 50:839–866 10. Hoegh-Guldberg, H, Hoegh-Guldberg, O (2003), The Implications of Climate Change for Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. WWF Australia and Queensland Tourism Industry Council

http://www.wwforgau/publications/ClimateChangeGBR/ 11. Hoegh-Guldberg, O, Mumby, PJ, Hooten, A J, Steneck, RS, Greenfield, P, Gomez, E, Harvell D R, Sale, P.F, Edwards, AJ, Caldeira, K, Knowlton, N, Eakin, C M, Iglesias-Prieto, R, Muthiga, N, Bradbury, R.H, Dubi, A, and Hatziolos, M E, (2007) Coral Reefs under Rapid Climate Change and Ocean Acidification. Science 318: 1737–1742 12. Hoegh-Guldberg, H (2008), Australian Tourism and Climate Change http://economicstrategies.fileswordpresscom/2008/02/background-tourism-paper-updatedpdf This source has a large bibliography of primary sources, to which we refer, and contains the basic table of vulnerabilities shown in Appendix 1. 13. Hughes, T, 1995, Catastrophes, phase shifts, and large scale degradation of a Caribbean coral reef, Science, 265: 1547–1551. 14. Hughes, TP, Baird, AH, Bellwood, DR, Card, M, Connolly, SR, Folke, C, Grosberg, R, HoeghGuldberg, O, Jackson, JBC, Kleypas, J, Lough, JM, Marshall, P, Nyström, M, Palumbi, SR,

Pandolfi,J.M, Rosen, B, Roughgarden, J (2003) Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs; Science 301: 929–933. 15. Hughes, TP, Rodriques, M J, Bellwood, DR, Ceccarelli, D, Hoegh-Guldberg, O, McCook, L, Moltschaniwskyj, N., Pratchet, M S (2007) Regime-shifts, herbivory and the resilience of coral reefs to climate change Current Biology 17:360–365. Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 26 Source: http://www.doksinet 16. IPCC (2007) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report; http://www.ipccch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4 syr spmpdf 17. Jackson, JBC, Kirby, MX, Berger, WH, Bjorndahl, KA, Botsford, LW, Bourque, BJ, Bradbury, RH, Cooke, R., Erlandson, J, Estes, JA, Hughes, TP, Kidwell, SM, Lange, CB, Lenihan, HS, Pandolfi, J.M, Peterson, CH, Steneck, RS, Tegner, MJ & Warner, RR (2001) Historical overfishing and the recent collapse

of coastal ecosystems. Science 293: 629–638 18. Johnson J and Marshall P Eds (2007) Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef A Vulnerability Assessment. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Australia 19. Kleypas, J A, McManus, J W, and Menez, L A B (1999a) Environmental limits to reef development: where do we draw the line? American Zoologist 39, 146–59. 20. Lough, J (2007) Climate and climate change on the Great Barrier Reef Chapter 2 In: Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef A Vulnerability Assessment. Johnson J and Marshall P Eds Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Australia. 21. McCulloch, MT, Fallon, S, Wyndham, T, Hendy, E, Lough, J, and Barnes, D (2003) Coral record of increased sediment flux to the inner Great Barrier Reef since European settlement. Nature 421 (6924): 727– 730. 22. Munday, P L, Jones, GP, Sheaves, M, Williams, AJ, and Goby, G (2007) Vulnerability of fishes of the Great

Barrier Reef to climate change, Chapter 12 In: Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef A Vulnerability Assessment. Johnson J and Marshall P Eds Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and Australian Greenhouse Office, Australia. 23. OESR 2002 (Office of Economic and Statistical Research), The Contribution of International and Domestic Visitor Expenditure to the Queensland Regional Economies: 1998–99. Brisbane 24. Pearce, P L, Green, D, Moscardo, G (1997), Intrastate, Interstate and International Visitors to Queensland: An activity based segmentation, James Cook University, Townsville. 25. Raven, J; Caldeira, K; Elderfield, H, Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Liss, P; Riebesell, U; Shepherd, J; Turley, C, Watson, A. (2005) Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide Royal Society Special Report, pp 68; ISBN 0 85403 617 2. 26. Reaka-Kudla, M L, (1996) The Global Biodiversity of Coral Reefs: A comparison with Rain forests In Reaka-Kudla, Don E. Wilson, and Edward O Wilson

(eds), Biodiversity II: Understanding and Protecting Our Biological Resources, Marjorie L.; A Joseph Henry Press book 27. Stern, N (2006), Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change http://wwwhm- treasury.govuk/independent reviews/stern review economics climate change/sternreview inde x.cfm 28. WTO et al (2007) United Nations World Tourism Organization, United Nations Environment Program and World Meteorological Organization, Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges Summary. http://wwwunwtoorg/climate/support/en/pdf/summary davos epdf 29. Wachenfeld, DR 1997, ‘Long-term trends in the status of coral reef-flat benthosThe use of historical photographs’, pp. 134–148 in State of the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area Workshop: Proceedings of a Technical Workshop held in Townsville, Queensland, Australia 27–29 November 1995, eds., DR Wachenfeld, J. Oliver & K Davis, Workshop No 23, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville 30 Wilkinson, C.

(ed), (2004), Status of coral reefs of the world: 2004 Volume 1 Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia. 301 p Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 27 Source: http://www.doksinet Appendix 1 Vulnerable tourist regions, Australia The table overleaf was derived from domestic and international visitor statistics compiled by the official state and territory tourism agencies. The estimates are of the number of holiday tourist bed nights for the year 2002. The regions shown are as in the relevant publications used in the analysis (listed under sources on the last page). Some states have subsequently changed their regional definitions The column showing ‘most important influences’ summarises a detailed assessment assigning scores between 5 (most threatened) and 0 (not significantly threatened) to the ten different tourism types shown in Table 1 (Section

4). It also assigns score to five deterrents, from 5 (greatest threat) to 0 (no significant threat). These are also shown in Table 1 The resulting analysis, for two different CSIRO climate change scenarios to 2070 as they existed in 2003 (‘wet’ DARLAM and ‘dry’ Mark 3), is not reproduced, but gives rise to the two final columns of Appendix 1: total score and occurrence of extreme observations (scores of 4 and 5) in one or both of the scenarios. The regions are ranked state by state according to the total score obtained in the analysis. The most threatened regions are colour-coded dark orange (scores of 25 and above), the next group (20–24) blue, and the third group (15–19) buff. The same colour code is used to identify the extreme observations themselves, on the last page. The various vulnerability components are described in detail in Hoegh-Guldberg (2008, available at http://economicstrategies.fileswordpresscom/2008/02/background-tourism-paper-updatedpdf) Garnaut Climate

Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 28 Source: http://www.doksinet Region Northern Rivers North Coast NSW Sydney Snowy Mountains The Murray ACT/Canberra Central Coast South Coast Hunter Riverina Blue Mountains Illawarra Outback NSW New England North West Explorer Country Capital Country excluding ACT Most important influences Rainforests, beaches, fishing, whales, bushfires, UV Wetlands, beaches, fishing, whales, native flora, bushfires Beaches, bushfires, urban heat Snow, native flora, wetlands Salinity, fishing, vineyards Bushfires, urban heat, UV Beaches, bushfires Beaches, fishing, whales, bushfires Vineyards, wetlands, bushfires Salinity, vineyards National parks, bushfires Beaches, fishing, bushfires UV, national parks, wetlands National parks, wetlands Wetlands, vineyards Vineyards, national parks, UV Domestic International Total International "V" score Extremes 4,780 6,445 9,121

1,929 1,486 1,615 2,126 8,246 3,575 887 1,080 1,124 564 1,463 1,623 1,100 920 347 13,484 38 81 462 75 242 236 56 163 68 28 176 98 9 5,700 6,792 22,604 1,967 1,566 2,077 2,201 8,489 3,811 942 1,243 1,192 592 1,640 1,721 1,109 16% 5% 60% 2% 5% 22% 3% 3% 6% 6% 13% 6% 5% 11% 6% 1% 23 21 18 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 5 Total NSW/ACT 47,164 16,482 63,646 26% 12 1 Legends, vineyards, High Country Snow, native flora, vineyards, fishing, bushfires, UV Murray Outback Salinity, fishing, national parks, wetlands Great Ocean Road Beaches, fishing, native flora, whales, bushfires Phillip Island/Gippsland National parks, beaches, fishing, bushfires The Murray Salinity, national parks, fishing, wetlands, UV Bays & Peninsulas Bushfires, beaches, fishing, whales, wetlands Lakes & Wilderness Fishing, national parks, wetlands, bushfires Goulburn Murray Waters Vineyards, salinity Yarra Valley/Dandenongs Vineyards, national parks, bushfires Grampians Vineyards, national parks,

bushfires Melbourne Urban heat, bushfires Macedon Ranges National parks, bushfires Goldfields National parks, bushfires 2,434 1,440 5,364 3,605 3,607 3,643 875 1,529 567 791 6,059 393 3,420 48 22 508 150 78 138 49 23 19 89 4,503 3 223 2,482 1,461 5,871 3,755 3,685 3,781 925 1,552 585 881 10,562 396 3,643 2% 1% 9% 4% 2% 4% 5% 1% 3% 10% 43% 1% 6% 23 17 17 17 16 14 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 1 2 Total Victoria 33,726 5,853 39,579 15% 12 Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 29 Source: http://www.doksinet Region Tropical North Queensland Townsvil e Whitsundays Fraser Coast Brisbane Capricorn Gladstone Gold Coast Outback Queensland Mackay Sunshine Coast Bundaberg Toowoomba/Golden West Most important influences Coral, rainforests, fishing, UV, mangroves, beaches, disease Fishing, national parks, UV, coral, mangroves, wetlands Fishing, coral, wetlands, UV UV,

fishing, rainforest, wetlands, whales Urban heat, UV, wetlands, bushfires UV, beaches, fishing, coral UV, beaches, fishing, coral Beaches, UV, national parks UV, rainforests, wetlands, disease UV, beaches, fishing Beaches, UV UV, fishing UV, national parks 3,609 1,129 1,675 2,744 4,387 948 900 12,308 658 685 7,485 1,127 1,180 8,082 1,445 2,675 3,469 6,317 1,127 1,016 15,434 738 738 8,461 1,256 1,200 55% 22% 37% 21% 31% 16% 11% 20% 11% 7% 12% 10% 2% 33 26 22 18 16 12 11 11 11 11 10 7 5 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 25% 15 1 Salinity, wetlands, fishing, vineyards National parks, vineyards, wetlands, salinity Salinity, vineyards, fishing, wetlands Vineyards, bushfires National parks, native flora, wetlands Beaches, fishing Urban heat, UV Vineyards National parks, beaches, fishing National parks, native flora National parks, beaches, fishing Vineyards Wetlands, national parks 38,835 13,123 51,958 14% 4% 12% 280 22 301 920 47 967 189 61 250 147 7 154 103 98 201 92 71 163 3,410 2,144

5,555 131 39 170 552 58 610 268 85 352 440 9 449 92 5 96 474 601 128 7% 5% 24% 5% 49% 44% 39% 23% 10% 24% 2% 5% 21% 20 17 14 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 2 7,098 28% 9 Total Queensland Murraylands Fleurieu Peninsula Riverland Adelaide Hil s Outback SA Kangaroo Island Adelaide Barossa Eyre Peninsula Flinders Ranges Yorke Peninsula Clare Valley Limestone Coast Total South Australia Domestic International Total International "V" score Extremes 4,473 316 1,000 725 1,930 179 116 3,126 80 53 976 129 20 2,774 9,872 Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 2 1 1 0 30 Source: http://www.doksinet Region Most important influences Domestic International Total International "V" score Extremes South West Salinity, native flora, vineyards, fishing, wetlands, whales Gascoyne Coral, native flora, salinity, fishing, whales, bushfires Perth Urban heat, native flora, vineyards,

wetlands, beaches, UV Peel National parks, native flora, fishing, wetlands Kimberley UV, national parks, wetlands, disease Great Southern Salinity, native flora, fishing South East Native flora, salinity, fishing Pilbara Native flora, whales, fishing, UV, disease Mid West Native flora, fishing Goldfields (including south coast) Native flora, UV, whales Heartlands Native flora, UV, national parks 3,211 826 2,846 675 1,399 867 368 353 1,582 415 998 266 113 2,602 34 67 123 29 70 123 34 78 3,477 940 5,448 709 1,466 989 396 423 1,704 449 1,075 8% 12% 48% 5% 5% 12% 7% 17% 7% 7% 7% 28 25 23 21 21 20 18 16 13 9 7 Total Western Australia 13,539 3,538 17,077 21% 18 1 335 106 283 370 866 228 232 5 3 5 5 46 23 5 340 109 288 375 912 251 237 1% 3% 2% 1% 5% 9% 2% 12 11 10 10 9 8 4 1 2,420 92 2,512 4% 9 0 1,983 1,712 509 186 606 867 147 32 2,589 2,579 656 218 23% 34% 22% 15% 27 14 11 7 2 2 2 2 4,390 1,652 6,042 27% 15 2 43,513 190,685 23% 13 1 West Coast

Northern East Coast North West Greater Hobart Southern Greater Launceston National parks, fishing, rainforest, bushfires Snow, national parks, fishing, wetlands National parks, fishing, wetlands, native flora National parks, wetlands, rainforest, bushfires Fishing, national parks, bushfires National parks, fishing Fishing, national parks Total Tasmania Top End Centre Katherine Tennant Creek Total Northern Territory Total Australia National parks, UV, urban heat, wetlands UV, national parks, native flora, bushfires, disease UV, national parks, disease UV, disease 147,172 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 Sources and notes, see next page Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 31 Source: http://www.doksinet Sources: Tourism New South Wales, Regional Profile Year Ended December 2001. Tourism Victoria, Visitors to Victoria’s Regions, 1998 to year ended March 2003 Tourism Queensland, Queensland Update and

Regional Update – Summary results for the year ended December 2002. South Australian Tourism Commission, Tourism Profile, and Tourism Research: Overnight Travel – South Australian Regions Year Ended March 2003. Western Australian Tourism Commission, Research Review on Domestic Visitor Activity 2002 Tourism Tasmania, Tasmanian Visitor Survey 1997/98 to 2001/02 Northern Territory Tourism Commission, The Economic Value of Tourism (2001/02). Australian totals checked against (then) BTR statistics and found within 3% The statistics are estimated holiday visitor nights. "V" score: "V" for vulnerability to climate change. Based on an assessment of each of the factors contributing go vulnerability on a scale from 1 (mild) to 5 (severe), for two alternative climate change scenarios devised by CSIRO (DARLAM ("wet") and Mark 3 ("dry")). Extremes: Scores of 4 and 5 on the vulnerability scale. "1" if rated for one of the two alternative

scenarios, "2" if rated for both, the factors being: Northern Rivers North Coast NSW Hunter Central Coast Blue Mountains Sydney ACT/Canberra Snowy Mountains Outback NSW Riverina The Murray NSW National parks, beaches, fishing, bushfires, UV Wetlands Vineyards Bushfires Bushfires Beaches, bushfires Bushfires Snow, national parks, native flora UV Salinity, vineyards Salinity, vineyards Murray Outback Salinity, fishing, national parks Goulburn Murray Waters Salinity, vineyards Legends, vineyards, High Country Snow, national parks, native flora Phillip Island/Gippsland Bushfires The Murray Vic Salinity, fishing Tropical North Queensland Townsville Whitsundays Mackay Capricorn Gladstone Bundaberg Fraser Coast Reefs, rainforests, beaches, fishing, bushfires, UV National parks/rainforests, fishing, UV Reefs, fishing, UV UV UV UV, reefs UV UV, national parks Sunshine Coast Brisbane Gold Coast Toowoomba/Golden West Outback Queensland Beaches, UV Urban heat, UV Beaches, UV UV UV

Adelaide Hills Barossa Murraylands Riverland Bushfires Vineyards Salinity Salinity, vineyards South East WA Gascoyne Kimberley Perth Peel Great Southern South West Salinity Reefs National parks, wetlands, UV Urban heat, UV National parks, native flora, wetlands National parks, native flora, salinity National parks, native flora, salinity, vineyards West Coast Tas National parks Top End Katherine Tennant Creek Centre National parks, wetlands, UV, urban heat, disease UV, disease UV UV Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 32 Source: http://www.doksinet Appendix 2 Physical climate scenarios To understand the impacts of change under a range of possible climate futures (with and without mitigation), a set of physical climate change scenarios have been developed for the Garnaut Review to use in the economic modelling exercise. These scenarios were determined by CSIRO climate scientists

in consultation with the Garnaut Review Secretariat. The project teams should have regard for these scenarios when defining the impacts of climate change on their sector of interest. R1Hot, dry reference scenarioA1FI emissions path, 3°C climate sensitivity, 10th percentile rainfall and relative humidity surface for Australia (dry extreme), 90th percentile temperature surface. Mean global warming reaches 4.5°C in 2100 R2Warm, wet reference scenarioA1FI emissions path, 3°C climate sensitivity, 90th percentile rainfall and relative humidity surface for Australia (wet extreme), 50th percentile temperature surface. Mean global warming reaches 4.5°C in 2100 ADry reference scenario550 ppm CO2 equivalent (CO2 stabilised at 500 ppm), 3°C climate sensitivity, 10th percentile rainfall and relative humidity surface for Australia (dry extreme), 90th percentile temperature surface. Mean global warming reaches 1.0°C in 2100 BWet reference scenario550 ppm CO2 equivalent (CO2 stabilised at 500

ppm), 3°C climate sensitivity, 90th percentile rainfall and relative humidity surface for Australia (wet extreme), 50th percentile temperature surface. Mean global warming reaches 1.0°C in 2100 CMedian reference scenario450 ppm CO2 equivalent (CO2 stabilised at 420 ppm), 3°C climate sensitivity, 50th percentile rainfall and relative humidity surface for Australia, 50th percentile temperature surface. Mean global warming reaches 0.55°C in 2100 where R1 and R2 are the reference cases, based on the IPCC Special Report Emissions Scenario (SRES) A1FI; and A, B, C are the comparative mitigation scenarios based on an emission stabilisation target of between 450ppm and 550ppm CO2-equivalent. The SRES A1FI scenario stems from the IPCC family of A1 storylines. 1 The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in midcentury and declines thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

Major underlying themes are convergence among regions, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interactions, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system. The three A1 groups are distinguished by their technological emphasis: fossil intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). In considering the range of IPCC scenarios, their storylines and assumptions, Professor Garnaut made the judgment that A1Fi presented a business as usual future he thought most likely, in the absence of a global government mitigation response. A1Fi therefore forms the reference case for the Garnaut Review economic modelling. 1 Nakicenovic, N. (2000), Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press UK.

Garnaut Climate Change Review The impact of climate change and ocean acidification on the Great Barrier Reef and its tourist industry 33