Content extract
! " #%$&)(%*,+.-0/ + $1&32 64 5 27&,8:9<;>=?A@ BDCFEGH(D2>I 5 GH& J G0$K2L+.;LMN27@ ;LGPOQ=R;S?T=RBU$VU/ CUGXWY&32LZRWY&[2G0([&]^#% ` (D2ab@ 5 G0aA;c;>$1&)(%G 5 @ BDC d =RWY&ReDZf$fZK2LgA8 ` 5 &32LI]hG0(%-iID;fj,Zf/)CDZK2LZRWkGl*,+m KZRBA; E:&)-0I.;>$RMHB%n,;>=R/ ZR-HW=R-iZf2LGb=; #2&[2G0;>$K2G0([& d &)BA;>$f=R( oqp 2re p ;st+ 5 @ B,* d aAU+DWY@)BDCDZf/)CDZK2LZRWuj d Z 5 W=R;>$RZK2>2LaA,+.WY@ BDCUGwv& 5 oqp 2>e p ;st+ 5 @ B,* d aA,+.WY@ BDCZf/ CZK2LZRW d Z 5 W=;>$fZK2>2a,*,+.WY@ BDCUGxv& 5 y[z,{1ym| } ~ YF <K fKKLR [SU L)FRiK cr3¢¡¤£§¦R¨rªK£«¬¡6® ¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯
³´¬µK¬¶·¹¸§¡6ºRr¶»Kµº»¼®f¶ª±¦[¬¡6®¨r½¾¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Âr®Ã¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ ÅÆqÇ LÈ ÉÊ ÈLcËAÌiL >ÍNLÎ[ ÍÐÏ [ Ò SÓ3««.cK¬«P¬Ô¨r£6¬±¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ Ò SÓ3«« ¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ Ò× À¨¡6»¿À¡6£XÓ3¿Ø¸»¬ ¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ Ú Ì 3Û Ì É,ÜÎ3È KÎ[ Ò
¡6º®rÔ1P¬Þ%cRÓ3r«À«¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ Ò× À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»DÔ3P¬ÞSÓ3«« ¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ Ò× À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»DÔ3P¬Þá1r:¡»r«â¸ª»ªÂr㯱¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ ä¹3Ó1å3®K¡6¿À¦§¡6¶ªå3®K¡6æ3¶»¬ ¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯Q¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯°¯°¯°¯±¯°¯±¯°¯°¯±¯ ÑmÆqÇ LÈ ÉÊ ÈLcËAÌiL >ÍNLÎ[ ÍÐÏ ÃÅ é >rKfê)K Ä ² Ä Ä KÑ ÄrÕ Ä>Ö Ù7Õ Å)Ý ÙÖ ßà ßÕ ßç .è Ñ.Å ë ì ì "í"îï%
ðñ!"ò ! ó ¼»¨¼3ô¡6rS¡õ»¨r¶ª¡61Ârö®R¢÷iø¸ª¨r3 Ò ¶6¬¡»½ ³À®f«½·ù,¬[£¶úõ¶ª[¬®)û ¬®fmcÀ3Ó3:»¨>¬®R¿¢¡6¡ª¡¶6£ ÀÓ3º¡Xª®«À÷i«P¬«¢¡66£K¬°Sr«À«ô¡»¡xÀr¯Êõ¬»¨3X¡¤¬[£Þrª®f®7¬«»¿À¡»¡ª¡6á<å31®£¬¡rû1ÂX¶»r1Ó3®f¿À¦Rü3« ¡»ü3¶»«c¶ªº«.¡»¡»¡·¡6¬fæ × ¨KµR6£¡>¯ 󼻨¼3ô¡6rS¡t»¨r¶ª¡61ÂrîcÂQ®R¢÷iø¸ª¨r3[Þ6¬«£Ó3S[¬®±ÂrlÔ[£¶»c[¬® ûf¬®RÀ®<S3Ó1¦ÂrÀý¡¤£Sþ ¬¡»¡6¬®c¡6¬få3«c£KµK¬Àÿª¶6£D¯ Ù kðîFkk Ò
®¼¡6«r¨ºqÂrª¨r»Â × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»f««P£7¡¤£ª®f¶»½«i¡6L¦£ ×3× P¬® × ¬ × ¡»¦ ¯±»¨½«½°Ä ²¯ Âô¦R qä»ä»ä¤¯ ¡»¼¶ª¦ÂrKµ´Ùàà þ¹·S½Ó3»¿À¡6£6¬ wSP¬7¡»¡wþx¬S®fü3«À¼3¼ªr¦rª¨r«Àµ0R¡6¶»ÂX»Ô ¶§¡»¡6ô¦Â®rKµR»Â¡ Á1¨rºª¨rc«Àµ®kr«»3®Y¬ ®¼¡6«r¨ºÂrª¨r»Â × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£À3µr3cÂrª¨r»Âü3µRõ»¨r«K£«¢¡¤¬¡6£7þ »¬À¡»½« û)¦¬µR[¨rô¡63Àü3®®r«À«b¬¨:r»¨rªÂrü1µRÊr««£¡¤£»®Âr¶ª¡rû [¬¬¨: R¡»¶»ÂrS»Ô ¶§¡ý¡6ô¦Âr®rKµR»Â ®¼¨ × rY»Ô
¶§¡ × ¬«Àrª¡6ô¡¾»¨rK¦Ó33r®)¯ Ò 3À¦¬¡»®¨¡»¡¸ª»¨r¬ × £«¢µ Sª¨r¶»K¡¾ ¡»¶»Â »Ô ¶ª¡»[¬® S1º»ü3«À3r® ¬ t¦¿À¨rÀ»¿¨Ârû × ,¸ªô¡ªþ »®f û Þ w¦¬Ó1¦R¿¨rD¦¨rÂrû Ó !1rµKþtÂr·»¨®f«P¬£ª¨>£·¬#¨ "<¯3÷i®K¡6½« û x¬¬$ 3µRÔ rÓ3¿ÀÞrÀ½3û ÷% × ¬¶ª«P¬1K£»¨r¬¡>û & × £¨rÀ»å3¶6£û[c«Àµ × áå1¶6£ × å33rx¸ªå3cÔ13 û x÷0¬«c£»¨r£rû (w¶»1Þr6¬å1¡6) ½ H¬å1¡6þ Þr¶»¬$ xªÔ.¶§¡>û3¶»¬««¢µû ¸%*1º«Â × ¬«À«3¨>£û +®
w÷iÂr«À®¨rrÂr·KµR¿«¢¡»¡63¶»D¦RÀ¡»¶»«£¨>£rû (« w6£¶ª®7£Kµ¶ªrÔ3ü1«Ârû)ø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº¨Ârrû)Ô[¬Ô3«P¬1r¶»Kµº¨rÂrû)<Á3¶ªrÔ3ü3«ÀÂr¯ , -/.01243576 898:89;<;=;>1+?<@AB32/CDEGFH@?<I/JKI/L4MNI/O2$P=L$P=2/OQR5LS?BTHP<UV?XWPYI4JJW?BWHP<E5KABZJ[-$R1K]=^ WC`EFbadcfegQhI4FI/L/i2$P=2/CRI4F I$e!jhTCf?lk=EbP<L4I4AB5CH?$mn o9I4pq3I/rRIS?BMFb5O2/CDfQhIELNsOH2/P<L/P<24OQ`5KL4?<THP<UK?BWP<59t9JEju?<I/A<rR2/A<IHm EvFwRJ@CkxTOHP<L/EQ`WJDQ`EC p*I/Or`E?BWA<THL4T?<?NFwRJK@HCR@HP<I4Cy3HI/P<L42/JKDHI/PadISz?<AB24p{eNP<jhTA<?<TJ|WP/}~P<L4ZHABEFTL4?BE?<Z^ P<L/EQEi5|iMHP{?<I/324FHI4CDP=2/OuF@HL4QhI4C QI/F@3I4?<FHI4L4I4?=?7Q`EJI/P<IS?
p5|E?=?9P<L4w`FP<24OHI/PBP=2Y3WJK?[I4JJW?BWHP=THFh1 %-%0H-$.f01a8:;=;>1-H1 e:TABp#1A<I/C`iI4JIS?GEFH@?BI4JI4L4MI4OH2/P<L/P<24OQ`5KL4?<THP<UK?BWPI4JJW?BWHP<E5KABZJYP=L/ZJZ-/Hf012/35 6 898:89;<;=;>1R?B@AB32/CfD!3H24OHA<I/r`Ek ?XWPBWABZJ}I4C`CRI4FfY1K]=^ WC`EF#a=-$eQhI4FHI4L/iR2/P<I ß Ò ¨ × ¡ª¦ »¨r¶ªK¡hR¡6¶ªÂr ªÔ.¶ª¡ × ¬«Àrª¡hrª¡»Âr¡6Âr¶ª¿À¡»Âr»´Ó3¿â¸ Sr««À¡ª¡«H3¡hÀÂrKµ × ¦r31X¬[£¨¶§¦ªwr«À«P£¡6£ª¡rûb¬÷iK£»¨r¬¡6tr«À«P£¡6£ª¡rûb¬¾¸»£¶ª½ × ¡6þ¹ª¨>¬®r«À«P£¡6£ª¡rûʬ÷ir®K¦º × ô¡6þ µ½µRÀf¡»Âr¨¡6 ««£¡¤£§¡>û±¬ ¶»f 3¬ ×
«ÀÀ¡6£ÞrÀ½««£¡¤£ª®7¬¡  ¬ × ô¡6r»¨>£««¿¢¡¤£§¡>û°cK¡6Âr§¡>¯ õ¬ × r«Àr3Ó3«Àå33®)ûÊr¨r®Ã®¼¨rü3«X1f [£Kµ¸ªr«K¡6º ¼ª»¨r × ®r¶ªü3« 1¡S¬ »Ô ¶§¡6«À½ »¨r££¶6¬1¯ ùUL¦£ ×3× £ 3 ¸»£¶x ¡»¶»ÂcªÔ.¶§¡ × ¬«Àr»ô¡·rª¡6´¬ ªÔ¶§¡6«À½[¬®¾µ½µR»¨r¶»£¶§þ ¡¤£SK¬¡6£rû1µ½þ µK£ª¨>¬¡»UªrÂÓ3rª¨r®¼¨r¼®´£¶6£ 3¨QKµæ¸§¡6¡ª¡õ¡6£cK¬¡¤£XÂrå1¡¤¬¨r£»m®¼«À¡»»Âr¡6Âr¶ª¿À¡»Âr·»û)Sr«Àµr® ª¨rÀf¡»Âr<1r
Ô[£¶m÷i¶»Àf¡»m¡6¡»r«Àr®)¯Aù·£Ô1Ô.Â3¨ × r ÂA¶»®R®7¬K¡»6£RKµRå3Ó3¿Ø¸ × ¬:¦Rª¨rK¡A¶»Ârª¨r»ü3« þ 1r® ¬¨r®)û%¬®fÀ® R¡6¶»ÂcªÔ.¶ª¡ × ¬«rª¡áSP¬7¡»¡õ®r¶ªrªº®ÂÔ1¡6«r13ÂS¦¬µ´¶ª®f®¬f¡ª¡¤£¦£«À[¬®)G¯ Yfþ ¡»¶»Âí»Ô ¶ª¡»® »¡»Â × r¬ª¨rü3®f»Ârª»Â ¦£«¢¡QÂr«ô¡6SrK¡6º<Á¡6¡»r® ®¼«À¡»»Âr¢¡:¬¨ TÂr»¨»Â × ¨ þ ¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª Ò «P¬Ô [3¬3»¨¿¶ª¨r¨r¬1ûár¨r®u®¼«¢¡6»Âr¢¡¬F»Ô ¶§¡6«À½[¬®®Ârªº ×3× » ®r«À«Qc¡6¶»¿À¡»ôþ 1¯ ʨrr ×
>¬>¦¬¡6®¨>£»® ÷i«»¶»«£6£$¡ ý¶»3Ó3«¡á¡6¬¶ª¡6¬«c¬¨¨>¬ iÔ3« d¯ q»¨c«¡»«£««P¬Ô.¡»®)û «ô¡»¦»¨Âr«Àµr°¬«À«r¶ªP£õ£««P¬Ô.¡»®)û)¬SÔ3å1¡¤£Þr½® û£¶»¬<ü1¡»ÂrrûD¬®få1¡á«ÀÂr¨Âr»,r«ÀÂr¡»r«3»Â3ûD§¡ × ¯ ô¯ Ò 3ã«ô¡6SrK¡6º × r¬>¦¬7¡6®¨>£ª® r»ô¡6Âk¬¡»Âr¶»¿¢¡6±SÂr¶§¡6Âr®Â¡:®¶ª£KµR¶»3Ó3«/¡ »¨r¶ªK¡<¬¨ Ârª¨rªÂrü3µU»¨«£«À¡6¬¡6½®Sc¬å3® [¬¡¤£¶»¨¨>£®cc3¯ ʨr¶ª¡ µ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6½®u«ÀµK¬ ×
¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£»Q¡6¶»SÂr®ô¡ Ó3«À¨¡6¬®h®f<¬¨Ã R¡6¶»Â ªÔ.¶§¡6¡ Á1¨rº ü3µf÷i«rÀ® »¨>££¶»¬1ûbSr«¢µ ÷iÓ3r¨X¬¨c R¡6¶ªÂr ªÔ.¶ª¡6«P£ × ½«l¬Ó1½Ó3½ × ¬«»ô¡6r®r»¨»Ârüþ µSr«À«P£¡6£6£[¬®ñ®¼«À¡6ªÂrÀ¡r¯ ³´¬µK¬¶ª¶»ª¨>£Þrªå3Ô[£ µô¡6«Àr × À¨¡6»¿À¡»½ ç c®f¿[£«S«¢µ ¡»¿Ô3å1»æ¡6¶»SÂr®¡>¯ õ¬µR»¨r£ × ¬ ¦¬3[¬®F¬ÃÔ3¬ÞrY¦R»¨K¡«¢µK¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª®)û·¬Sr«Àµr® ¬«P¬ÔK¦ô¡6ºRr3f 3£Kµ[¬Ô3¶»¬S¶ª¦ÂKµrqå1¡¤¬ ×
¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£»®)û[Ó3á÷i«P£¶X««3Â × r®Âr$¶ 1¡6º 3¨¨>£¸ªå3® R¡6¶»ÂcªÔ.¶ª¡6®R¶»¬k¦[¬¡»®¨½ ®fÂrª¨r¿¢¡6º × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£r ¯ ¨r¬®fÓ3«¨>¬¡» × ¬u1r r¨r®f®« ÷i«P¬«À®¨®):û 3¬3rã«¢µK¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª6¬«Hû,Sr«¢µô¡ ¬´¶ªr3Ó3ª¨r¶»rªrY R¡6¶ªÂrS»Ô ¶ª¡»«½® ®¼$¡ 3¡§þ 1Âr3® ¯ õ¬SSr3Âr¨¨rü3®¬¾¬µK¬¶ª¶»ª¨>£Ô3P¬Þrr«Àº÷i¶ªÓ3å3«½ µô¡6«Àr«Àµr¡6¿ÀÔ3å3»æ¡6¶»SÂr®¡>û)¬c«Àµ
®fÀc1Ó3¡»¡6¬¬¨r®7¬¡:¬´ªÔ.¶§¡6«À½®7¬¡QÞr«¨¨>¬´Sr1ûb¬®f® 1rÞr»¬®¬«®7¬«cª¨rr¶ªÁ3rD:û [¬3r ¶ªr3Ó1»¨r¶»»rÁ3¨rÀ®´¬¨: R¡»¶»Ârï»Ô ¶ª¡»®7¬¡>û.«P£$¡ [¬¡i¸ªå3®)û 3µ¦¬ µ ¬«P¬Ô × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£·Âáf 3¨ ¦£«¬»¨ô%¡ [¬7¡6½S®Â¡ª÷iÂr«À:®fÂrª¨r¿À¡»º × À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£¯ Ò ¨±¬«P¬Ô × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£·¬¨:¶§¦ª,®¼«À¡»»Âr®¡6¶»¿¢¡6ÂrªÂr¶ª ª¨r«ÀK£«Hû,¦¬µR:¬¨r®¶»£ ×3× ¬Ã÷i«ª¶»«¢¡°r««£¡¤£»y® [[¬3»¨¿¶»¨>£»£¡:¦£«À«P¬«Ø¸»¬£7¡ ¬ ×
À¨¡6»¿À¡»½3û % HHcR1uad89;=;>1R1 es¡O2/P<L/P<24OHwROD57¢G5CR5P<LS?B24AB5K£`p*5 ABI4CiI4JIS?{EvP=w`A<OHMHPP=L/wRFP=2/OFH@AB24QhI{?BEA=?BTL/ZI/ODI$P I4O2$P=L$P=2/OwROHD5hP<L4THJKOfWJK?BE?XWP<TFABZJ ¤ -$.f01¦a8:;=;>1 §R1 e¨9THA<p!WCDABI4C`iI/JKI4??B24ABUV?B2/P<5:iU k{I4JJI4CR2/QI/Cu5KOH24CDQIN3HI4rRI4?<MªI/ODI$P!I4OH2/P<L/P<24OHwROD5 P=L/TJOHWJK?BE?BWHP=THF?B24ABUV?B2/P<5 iU k=WABZJ Õ S r«¢µ® ¬¨R¡6¶ªÂr »Ô ¶§¡6«£Ê®¼¨ × «»¨rK¦Ó3¡ª¡ × ¬«Àrª¡6® rª¡6¬¨·ü3µf÷i« «ªÔ.¶§¡6«À½Q£«À¡6¬« ¡»Âr¶ª¿À¡63Ó3º®ir¨r® ¬÷iK£»¨r¬¡6Ê««£¡¤£ûU¬<¸»£¶ª½ ×
¡6þ¹ª¨>¬®r«À«P£¡6£rûU¬÷ir®K¦º × ¡»rþ µ½µRK¡6¨r¡» ««£¡¤£û¬ ¶ªf [¬ × «¢¡¤£Þ½·««P£7¡¤£ª®ÂrQ¬ × ¡6»¨r£««À¿À¡6£rû cK¡6Âr%ô¯:óQÀr»¨¿À¡6º × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£»®ÂK¡ Ô rÓ1 ¦£«P¬ª¨%¡ 3¬¡6½ µ½µR»¨r¶§þ6û µ½µK£ª¨>¬¡»ïªrÂÓ3rª¨r®¼¨ôþø£¶ª¡¤£c¬¡¤£ª¶6¬ Âr å1¡¤¬¨r£» ®¼«À¡»»Â¡6¶»¿À¡»Ârª¶» ¦3¬¡6®¨r½ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£f ¬ ¦¬µ × ¬«Àr»ô¡6u[¬«P£«À¶6¬^ 30%þ¹¡kr«Â¶»º × ¬«rª¡» ¶ª®f®7¬K¡66£¶6¬ ¦3¬¡6®¨r½ × ¬«Àr»ô¡ ×
À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£û1¦¬µ»¡»«SS1Ó3®ô¡»¡6º¾µR»¨r¶»¶ª¯ Ò »Ô ¶ª¡»«&½ «ü3µf÷iÂr«¾®Â¡»÷i«FÞr»¬^®¼¨ü3«c¦£«¬»¨ô%¡ [¬f¡ ¬«¬Ô R¡»¶6¬^Þ»c¬3ûc¬Sr«Àµr® S1Ó3¼»ª¨r°¬ »¨«K£«À¡¤¬7¡¤£x¼»»¨rÂ3r®÷i«»º [¬7¡¤£¶»£ × ¬®fü3«¼ × ¼¨3r®)¯ Ò × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£¡¤¬¶§¡¤¬c£¡Y«À«¡»ºî¦ÂrF[¬Ô3ÀÓ3¿â¸»¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£¦£«¬»¨ô%¡ [¬¡»½3û´«ªºrª¡»Âr S1Ó3r × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»±Â¦f÷i¶ªÓ3å3«½ 渪¶6¬®¼%¡ 3ô¡6º3û å¡6½ ×3× <rª¡6Â × Ô rÓ3Àhc [¬¡6£¶»H¨
[¬¡»½h¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤¬1Ó3½ [¬Ô ® ª¨>£c¬1¯ %H3¡»»Ârrãc ¨r ¡»¿Ô3å3ªæ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£íÞrªÔ.¶ª¡6 × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ï÷i¶»c£¸»£ × ¬ ¡6¼¶§¡6Âr1º Sr®¼¡»Âr»û)¿µ»Ô ¶ª¡»rµr»ü1«¡»r®ÀX®¼3Kµr × À¨¡»»¿¢%¡ [¬¡i¸»£®S¬å3®7¬¡·»Ô ¶ª¡»«P£»å3®c»¶»£¯ ¨r¬®fÓ3«À¨>¬7¡6 × ¬QrµáH3¨[¬»3«À½xþ¹Ó3T3ÂH[£Kµá¡6®RÀK¡6¡ × :µR»¨r¶»Á3ª¿À¡»¡»¡§þR¡6¶»Â¾þ ªÔ.¶ª¡ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£ª¡qcRÓ3««¨r® û¬3KµRÊ®Rü1«¼ × ªÂr« û71µ ®f¢¦£«P¬ª¨¡6®µ
¡»¶»ÂcªÔ¶§¡6¡ýþ ¬¨°¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº¨rª¡§þ¤û Âr·r¨r´:å1¡¤¬¡» × û 3uµ [¬¡6£¶»f¨ [¬¡»½¾cc¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£XÓ3¿Ø¸»¬1û3SÀ¡X®r«« 3µ«r × x¦r33Hû¦¬«P¬SK¡rû 3µ ¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡6½ý¶ªÂr»¨Âr¶ªº«[cÀ«Àµr × ¦Â¡6««Àr«7¸»£/¶ [¬¡Êµ< R¡6¶»Â¾þ ªÔ.¶ª¡ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£r¯ ³Ó3««ÀrS¡ ¬¨¬«P¬Ô ®K¡6½«t®r¨rÓ¦´ÂÔ3¿À¡»r÷ir«H¯ ʨ>¬«¬¡»¡<¬¨¡¾Â¶ª¡»r~û 1µÃ1r £««3¬® ¶»rRþ
Ó1r«®r¨Âr»c¶ªh®3®f¶ªÂ¡kc¬µK¬¶»¶ª»¨>£c¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº¨r»¶ªh¦[¬¡»®¨½ [¬«P£«¨r£» þ´Âû¶»ü3«ÀÂrª ¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂr® ûK¡»f [£¡T¨r® × Þrª«ÂrªÂr¶ªÀÊ®fü3«À÷i¼«ÀÓ3¬Ó[¬¡»® × ½«®¶»ü3«[ª¶r¯T³rQ®««3c«À¿À¡63rû 1µ 6¬L¸ª3:¿Àµ ªrã»®r¶ªü3«À¡Q¡6æ1«tª® ¬Ó[¬$¡ 3b ¨ 3¨¨>£¸ªå1¡»3ûAÓ3c¬ª¨>£S¿À¡6£Q¿µ °«f 1¡ªþ ªÂrr¯ Ò ¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr®FSrh [¬¡¤£¶»¨r£6¬ å1¡¤£Yþ¹c£¶c¨r®®¡ 3¬»¨[£«À¦¬7þ:®fª¨>£S« rµ ¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº
× ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£<¦rSÓ3¿â¸»£¡rûʦ¬«P¬SK¡:¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡6½ ¶»rÓ1cÂfµÂ¡crµÃ«Àµr¡6¿ÀÔ3å3ªæ × ¨ôþ ¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª%£«À«c£KµD¯ ¯õ«¨>¬¡» c£»RÓ3À®¶ªÂr»¨Â × r¬Ô3¬Þrb¬«P¬Ô1æ £¶6¬¨r£°¬«P¬ÔR¸»£ áSrh [¬¡¤£¶»¨ µ «¢µ ¡»¿Ô3å1»æ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£xÓ3¿â¸»£7¡>¯ ç °±³² ´ µ ~ Fkk ñ k Ò ª¨>£S¿À¡6£»®1¨ »¨ü3®f»Âü33® ¦¬ ¬ò¬µK¬¶ª¶»ª¨>£ ø¸§¡»º¶»Kµº¨rÂr¶[¬«P£« þ  ªÂr¶ªü3«Â ¦ ¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂr¶»¯ ³K¡Y£¶rS«¿À¡»¡ª¡6rû À«Àµ
¬Ó[¬¡»®3 £««À[¬® ¶»r1Ó3r«À®r¨Ârªü33®f¶» þ «K¬«P£ ×3× rûch¬ 3«S®¶»ª¡6ûc3r ¡¤¬«P£«¢¡¤¬¬ SÂr ¬ óõ¼¨Ô.f¡»f¡¤¬¡»»¨ô¡6À®¬¾õÀ¦¬¡6¬« ªr ¡6å3Ó3¡»¡ ·D«îfÀ<å1¡¤¬7¡¤£ª6¬«°»¨«K£«3 þ¤ûý¨rÂr¶§¡ 3Âf3£Kµ c£»À®uå3¶»½Ô[¬°¶»ª¨>£h¬Ó3¬¡¤£¡ 3¬»¨[£«â¸ªå1®S÷i«%³´¬µK¬¶ª¶»ª¨>£ Ô[¬¶6¬S¡»r¶»3® × rÞ»«ÀÂr»H 3r¨ ¯ f¦ÂrÓ1¶»ª¨>£3û ¯q£3P¬û1««¬3Ó3¬1û ¦¬«¬SK¡ýµ £«¢¡¤¬«£3û%¬ ¦R«P£ ®fü3«¼ × ¼¨rºÔ
K¡0¸»¬À¶»½«,»¨r£¶»c¬¨r½¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº»¼® å3¶6£6¬À[¬® r¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµ ¹k¬«¬ÔR¸»£^»¨>£c«À®)º ¯ T¨r®f¶»k¬¨¶»ª¨>£®R¶»¬«Àµ¬^¡6¬få3«c£Kµ®u®Â»¨ü3«À¡»r®)û ¸ Sr«¢µ® ¡6¬¶ª¡6¬«c¬¨r¨r£® ¬¦R¨»K£«À¡±ø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº å3¶6£ª®ª¨>£c£¡rûbr¨r × «ü3«t¬´ªÂr¶»ü1«Ârªr ¾¬ » ¶»ª¨>£ ä¹Ó3ºª¨>¬® "ýÀ¨r»£«À¡Xå1¶6£ª® Âr¶ªü3«Â»å1¶6£ª® q¬«£«xå3¶»£»® ¯ý£3P¬V` Ä Kh² 7þ6Ä Öß ÄÄLà¾ààà Ä 1Ä ««¬3Ó3¬ f² Ä Ö1Äþ6Ä ÖKç Ä ß 1ÄÄ Ù K² Õ
R¦ÂrÓ3¶»»¨r£ ÐÖ Ä Õþ6Ä K²ß çÖSÙÄç þ ç R¦ÂrÓ3¶»»¨r£ ÐÖ Ä K²Õþ6Ä Öß hÙ KÙ àßK² þ ÄLß R¦ÂrÓ3¶»»¨r£ ÐÖ Ä ÖÕþ6Ä ß ²àßS²ÖKÙ þ ÄLà R¦ÂrÓ3¶»»¨r£ ÐÖ Ä ÕþøÙààß Ä¾ÄhÙ S²àÕ þ R¦ÂrÓ3¶»»¨r£ V Ä 7þøÙààß çß ¾ÖÖKç Ùç² þ "q«P£ ¢Ä>Rà Ùààà7þøÙàà1Ä ÄIJ ààà ÙàÕ Ä Ä¯Àį>¡6£ × «£¨>¬¡r¯g¼¾½¿>À&ÁÂÃ Ä ÀÅÆhÇhÂ/È`ÅÉÊËÊ`ÌÍÎ`áÏÎfÐ`ÀGÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇÉÊhÏËhÃÒÑ[É`¿<¿BËhà ÓÅÔÂÌÍÔÅÕgÔÅÖÒËhÍdÈhÍÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉÊ 3¬«P£«À®fÀc3¡»r«Á1r®Y»¨>££¡r¯Ê¨r
¬Ó[¬¡»®7¬¡¬¨øį¢ÄRS¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡¡6¬¶ª¡6¬«c¬¨¨>¬1¯ ³Àr«Àº¡»¡ ¬u¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr®®3®f¶ªÂ¡ × rÞrª«Â»Â¡Ãr«®r¨Ó3r3Â3®)û ¦R¨rªK£«Ø¸ªå3®ñc ®fÞ»À¡®¼¨rr«À ×3× ¶»º«¬ ¶ªr3Ó1r«®r¨Âr»¶ª<£«À«½ ¬Ó[¬¡6®¬7¡>¯Tóᡮ¶»Ó3ÂõSr¶ªü3« 1¡X÷ir« × r1Rü13® þ!Ö É`×ØÉ$ÇÔà ÃÁÊv¿SÁÊ`Ó Ã ¿ Ö Á¿>ÀÊ`Õ$ÁËbÊ`Ì+ÍÎ`áÏÎfÐ`ÀØÉ`ÂÅ$ÐÈÇÉÊËÐ`É`ÃÉÅNÓ=ÙÀÅ$ÐË`Ê`Â/ËbÚhÉ`áËh¿ Ê&ÉfÐ`ÛË&Ù&Ëh¿BËhÓÜ þÝÖ É`×ØÉ$ÇÔà ÃÁÊÞ¿>ÁÊ`Ó Ã ¿ Ö
Á¿SÀÊ`Õ$ÁßÁBÇhÄàÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇÉ`öÏÁÍáÌÍáÓÑâÙÁÊ`ÌÍÎ`áÏÎfÐ`ÀÞÓ=ÙÀÅ$ÐË`Ê&ÉÊ`Â/˨ÚhÉ`áËh¿ Ê&ÉfÐ`Û Ë&Ù&Ëh¿>Éʾã äæåç åèé{êuëì9íî7ïØëð!î èíñHòNì[åó Ò õ¨ «º¨º® × ÷ir«¢¡6¡ª¡l®Â¡w®Â¶»Ó3ª¡X®fü3«À¼c®r«À«)¦£«¬»¨ô¡¤¬få31®c¬[¬«£«3Ârw¬±ªÂr¶»ü1«Ârt¬Ó[¬7¡¤¬À3®f¶6¬1¯ õ¬«P£«Arª¡»Ârì¨S«ªº®Âr¶ªÓ3Ârª¶» ¬ ¦£«¬»¨ô¡°¬®¼L¦¡»®¨rº Õ®3S3À¡6£ª¦RÀ¨r»£«P¬¡ý¬Ó7¸»¬ÒáSÀ¦r« ¬:õ«À«P¬3Ó1P£¶»¬á¦[¬¡»®¨½ »¨r£c® 1981 − 1985þ × º«[¦¬«½®)ûRr¨r¶ª¡XS1Ó3®Âô¡x«¢µK¬
§¦ÂÓ3¶»ª¨>£ ¬Ó[¬¡»¡6¬«f¼»ª¨rt®r«À+« 3¬»1«¿À¡6¬3Hû¬cK ×3× w¬õ®¶»ª¨>¬® × ¬ × r«ÀrKµRæ3«À® 9¯ ô¹µ°«»¨l®Âô¡ χ þ¹§¡¤¬¡»»¨ô¡6À®¬ ¶ª¡»Âr®¬ ª¦ÂrÓXþ 3«À«P¬3õÓ 3cr3¢¡¤£ª¶6õ¬ 1974 − 1983 Âr 1984 − 1993ôûÊÂr ¡»¦£ ×1× X®Âô¡ χ þ §¡¤¬¡»ª¨¡6À®7¬Âr¶§¡6®F¬ª¦ÂÓþ¹Ó3£ Âr §¦ÂÓþ ¦R«£ 1cr3¢¡¤£ª¶6¬1¯ Ò 3S3À¡6£ª¦R¨»K£«P¬$¡ 3¨ ª¨rü3®fªÂrq»¨r£S®7¬¡·ÂrÔ[£¶ª®7¬¡¬b¨ §Ä¯ Ù w §Ä¯ &ß t¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡X¡¤¬¶ª¡¤¬«c¬¨r¨r¬1¯ 2 2 ùXæ1«Âr«¢¡ õ ¬«P£« öý»ª¨¯d ùXæ1«Âr«¢¡
õ¬«P£« öý»ª¨¯d §¦ÂrÓ Ù KÙ àKÙÕ LÄ ß ÙhÙ¾àßK² §¦ÂrÓ ²àßS²²Ù ÄLà ²àßc²ÖKÙ 3««P¬3Ó Ä ß àK² Õ ÄßbÄÄ 3««P¬3Ó ÄßàK² Õ ÄßbÄÄ Ä¯ Ù¯¡¤£ × «£¨>¬7¡>¯ ÷Ð`É`ÃÉÅÓ=ÙÀÅ$ÐË`Ê`Ó9ÖÒËhÍdÈhÍÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉÊÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÖÒË`ÅÉ`à Íáø ¿XÈ`ÅfËùBúÚhÔ$ÙÉ`ÂÅ$ÐÈÇhÕBûÉ`Í ÍdËháÙhÓ=Ëü ùXæ3«Â«À¡ q¬«£« öý»ª¨¯d ùXæ3«Â«À¡ q¬«£« öý»ª¨¯d §¦ÂÓ hÙ KÙ àKÙÕ ÄLß ÙhÙ¾àßK² §¦ÂrÓ ÄcÄLÙhª Kç ľÄÙhS²àÕ Ó3£ ÄLà Õ ÄÄ>àSààà ¦R«£ ÄÄ Ä ÄIJ ààà į ß1¯F¡¤£ × «£¨>¬7¡>¯
÷Ð`É`ÃÉÅýÓ=ÙÀÅ$ÐË`Ê`ÓþÖÒËhÍdÈhÍÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉÊÿÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÖÒË`ÅÉ`à Íáø ¿XÈ`ÅfË ùBúÚhÔ$ÙÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇhÕ Èhà Ó=Ë`Ñ úÚhÔ$ÙÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇhÕ>ÚÓ ÍdÈÇü ² Ò §¡¤¬¡»»¨ô¡6À®¬<¶ª¡»Âr®À¡õ¬ §Ä ®ÂrÔ3«À¡¬Ó7¸»¬1ûw¬h3« r ¬¨ª¨¡¤£«Àµ®»¨>£¬1¯ ³3Ó1r »ô¡ × r ¬ få3««l3Ô ¡6¨rÀ»ü33®Ã¬¨û3µ ¬ [¬«£«¨>£ ¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»ÂY¬¨r3»3¬® ¡6®RÀK¡%3ô¡6º^Ô3£¶»1®ÂrK¡r¯ Ò ¨¨§ÄR ¬«¬ÔR¸»£ »¨r£S«À¡ §¡¤¬¡»ª¨¡6À®7¬cÂr¶§¡6®r® χ û û û = 2.5 χ = 0.41 χ = 0.04 χ = × × Nʨr®ô¡:¬¨<Âr¶§¡6Âr®r®¡[¬ª3«¿¢¡0¸ªå3®¼ª»¨¾¬ ¯
þ 3 Ô » ¶ ½ 1 ¬ A û Ä ª > ¨ ¬ ¬ 3 Ó 6 £ i ÷ f ® æ û þ q « » 7 º þ χ 10% 0.004 ÷0¬L¸ªæ3 × ¬L¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂrÁöª¡»Âr®Âô¦« ûl¬S 2.71 ¯ ³¢¦«wr¨r®cÀ3Ó3rµÀ®c®RÀ» ×3× r31Âr« ûʨr¶ª¡ «S3Ó3¬¡6½3û3µ 10%þ¹ár«ªº÷0¬¸ªæy3 × ¬>¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»ÂrSr«À«¡ª¡ý«À÷iK¬Ó7¸ªå3®¬ Rå1«« 1Ô ¡6¨r§¡>û ¦¬µÀ·¬¨°¬¨r3·Ó3º»¨>¬®R[¬«P£«¨r£» ¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr® 3SÂ33®¡6®RÀK%¡ 3ô¡6º®)¯ ùUL¦£ ×3× ¶»¬ ±¬[¬«P£«¶6¬ ¦[¬¡»®¨½ ª¨>£S®7¬¡°¦R¨rªK£«¢¦¬ûAÂr¾¬£ªÓ1®
®Â¶»Ó3»¶ª ¦£«P¬ª¨r«¢¦¬ 渻¬ ×3× Kµ«Þ 3S3À¡6£ª¦R¨»K£«P¬¡qr«À¦Âr¨ÂrªÂr¶»c¦¬»¨ü3®f»Âü33®)ûÊSr«ÀµR3® »¶»£®fÀÓ3r¶ªü3« û 1µ¬¨kµÀÓ3º»¨r¬®à ® [¬«£«¨r£»:¬Ó[¬¡6¬ª3SÂ33®^¡6®RÀK%¡ 3ô¡6º®þ¹ Êâ [¬h3û »ô¡6«Ã÷ir«¢÷irÓ3f¨ 3ô¡6ºþ × 3fü3®F¦¬«¬Sb¸»¬>¦Rå3«À½¦¬µF¶»S«½ ¡63Ó33Þr¬ ,«Ó[£å3«õ¡»¼¶ª¡»ÂrK¡ªþ ¦¬«¬S[¬¨ø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµºl÷ir«ª¨r¶»r«ÀÂr × ¨ô¡63»£»¬ ×3× £á¡6Âô¡6«Âr¶»Ó1r®Â ×
û[¬S1r®<®¼¦¡»®r¨ô¡6Â × ®¦r» ×3× [¬«P£«U®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨rô¡»¡ × <¬¨ Ó3ºr«º¶»f 3¬«P¬Ó¡¤£>¦¬« "l¬µ ¸»¬>¦å1«À¡á»¡»«¬¨<å3¶»£»®R¶»¬ ¦[¬¡»®¨½¾®K¡¤¬¡6£XcÀ3ºªÂr Ò 3cr3¢¡¤£§¦À¨rªK£«P¬7%¡ 3¨»¨ü3®f»Ârõ¬Ó[¬¡»®7¬¡·¬ª¨ §Ä¯ÐÕ t øį ç t¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡x¡¤¬¶ª¡¤¬«c¬¨r¨r¬1¯ χ2 = nm r X i=1 2 2 i −M m Ni + M i R Ni n 2 2 2 2 ! # " $ % ! ùXæ3«Â«À¡ q¬«£« öýª»¨¯d ùXæ3«Â«À¡ q¬«£« öý»ª¨¯d §¦ÂrÓį çÖSÙÄLà ç çÖSÙÄç
§¦ÂÓ ß1¯ ²àß¾²²Ù ÄLà ²àßc²ÖKÙ §¦ÂrÓ Ù¯ hÙ KÙ<àKÙÕ ÄLß ÙKÙ àßK² §¦ÂÓ´Õ3¯ ľÄÙh Kç ľÄÙc²àÕ Ä¯ÐÕ3¯1¡6£ × «P£¨>¬¡r¯ ûNËhÍdÈhÍÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉÊØÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÖÒË`ÅÉ`à Íáø ¿XÈ`ÅfËvúÚhÔ$ÙÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇuÁBÇhÄ&ÁÅÓ=ÙÀÅ$ÐË`ÊhËhÓ9Ê&ÎfÐ`Î`¿=¿ Ò ¨ øÄRq®ÂÔ3«ô¡±¬«P¬Ôf¸»£ ¬ χ þ ª¡¤¬7¡6ª¨¡»®7¬Âr¶§¡6®r< χ û û = 1.12 χ = 1.62 û û û û = 14.03 χ = 23.25 χ = 28.43 χ = 10.05 2 2 χ2 & 2 2 ( 2 &( 2 & , sQRQhMJr`E?*Ff5L/WA<ZHJEOHE#P<32/ibEiRE?<TFAXE#3THC`E?BFTL/5KF }Ep5FfQhMJ¾I4OHD24A<?<I/JKp)RI4CªJ|W?XP=L/5KF }rRTHODªEGr`EJWJKTHL/WP=? 5KJJKI4?<MI4C#FH2S?
C`EOHD{FTHABP<L/EFFfw`JK@HCRUV?BrRIS?BMI4Jax-$.I/JKM?=?[2/Pg-$^?<MJáe>1¢G53I/J,+:WCR5EEHiRE?XE5&ELgI4J|P<M*FHTAXP=L$EFQhZJ 3%EJKZHF }I/L424A<?9FwRJ@CGpI4OH35KL$P=OfWJTp E{F2S?YF2$P=MHQRQR5P<32$iGFTHABP<L/EFfFEJ&3%EJKZrRTpTOHI4CR5K?BWHP<W?9EL/L/EJ+. E -S2/JKJ|EJ}`r`TOD I/P<IS?<JI4* O /I4J ?B£`iTHp^(Igr`EP<L4CWJCR#5 +:WCR5Er`EJWJKTHL/WPBW?¾5P Ep!EODfEABTAXP=L$WOH5REiRE?<TFrRTHL}rRTHODp5KCR2/J ?<@HQRQEHiRE?<?BEJ iTJOTHL4L/EF 01 +:IP<EkxCRTHPCRI/p#1 Ö ùXæ3«Â«À¡ q ¬«£« öýª»¨¯d ùXæ3«Â«À¡ q¬«£« öý»ª¨¯d Ó[£ ÄLà ª Õ ÄÄLà¾ààà Ó3£ ÄLà ª Õ ÄÄ>àSààà §¦ÂrÓ´ß1¯ ²àß¾²²Ù LÄ à ²àßS²ÖKÙ §¦ÂÓ´Õ3¯ ľÄÙh Kç ľÄÙc²àÕ Ä¯ ç¯K¡6£ ×
«P£¨>¬¡r~¯ ûGËhÍdÈhÍÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉʪÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÖÒË`ÅÉ`à Íáø ¿XÈ`ÅfËØù Èhà Ó=ËhÕXúÚhÔ$ÙÉ`ÂÅ$ÐÈÇ dÑ Èhà Ó=ËhÕXúÚhÔ$ÙÉ`ÂÅ$ÐÈÇ Vü  χ = 17.91 ¯ T¨r®¡ ¬¨S¶ª¡»Âr®®ô¡<®««T¬¨ÄS»¨r¬ × ¬Ó3»£÷i®fæ χ χ = 7.87 «ª¨r«£ 10%þ¹,r«ªº÷0¬¸ªvæ 1 × ¬>¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»ÂÁ Âr¶§¡6Âr®Â¦r« û 2.71þ¹µr«R¼»ª¨rH [¬»3«¿¢¡¤¬3H¯Ym£¡$[¬¡»½3û 1µ¬¨ýr«À»º<®Â¡X¶ª¡»Âr®®f¢¦Â¡»r«À¦«%¬:¡6¼ ×3× «ÂrKµr»r[¬µ ×3× û1¦¬µRtÞr6¬® ¬¨õr«ªº<®Âô¡·røþ ô¡ × r S3ÒÓ [¬¡6½1û 1µc¬
[¬«P£«À¨>£ª[¬¶»£Kµ®S¬¨3ª[¬® ¡6®RÀK%¡ 3ô¡6º®)¯ ʨqÔ rÓ3À<¬¨ô¡m¸ª«f¡» û 1µhõ ¬ [¬«£«»¡»r®ª¨>£c¬Y¬¨ ø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº¨Âr´ªÔ.¶ª¡¤£ × ¬Ã¸ªr«ÀrK¡6ºªru÷iü3Y¬ × r®¼L¦¡»®¨rÂr ÀÓ3ºÔ K¡0¸»£¡»½« ¯ Ò ¨°Ä à7þ¤Ä ²à7þ¹Ê¦r® × «Âfµr»¡»¼ ×3× [¬«P£«7¸ªå1¡6¡»¡tå3µK¬[¬3KµRDå3¶6£ª¶6¬1¯ ʨq¬ ×3× ½«)T«P£¡»»¨®)û [¬±Sr1Âr¨r¨ü3®¾cÀ3Óc¬±3µ¾Ó3º»¨>¬®R¶»¬1û 3µÄLààà°å1¶6£ª¶6 ¬ [£Kbµ [¬«P£«¢þ «¬«f¦Âr¨rºRÓ3ºQå3¶6£ ¸ªå1¡ øį q¡6£ ×
«£¨>¬¡ ô:¯ m£%¡ [¬7¡6½3û 3µ<¬õ¦R¨rªK£«¢¡bÕKàýÂô¦ ¬«¬¡»¡,®¼¶ªü3« × r«Àü3«DÄ>à7þ¹Ó ¶ªÂrª¨rÂr¶ª Þrª¼®f®f¡ )¬ [¬«£«ýå3¶»£»® ª¨>£c¬1¯ ʨô¡ ¬³´¬µ¬¶»¶ª»¨r£¶6¬¦3¬¡6®¨r½ 3¬«P£«À¨>£» ¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂr¾cK£«À«P¬Ô3¿¢¡¤£»£[£«)À[µ« × á¦r»ª¨rü3®)¯ 2 78& 21,3 4 .563 287( 2 ä¹Ó3ºª¨>¬®® õ ¬«P£«¨r£»® Ä Õ7þ¤Ä K²ß 1à û àÖKçh Ä K²Õ7þ¤Ä Öß 1à û àÕ& Ä ÖÕ7þ¤Ä ß 1à û à1Ä>ÕfÙ Ä Õ7þ§Ùààß 1à û ààÖà į1¯3¡6£ ×
«£¨>¬¡r¯÷ÙÉ`¿<¿~Ó=ÙÀÅ$ÐË`ÊhÏËhà uÁx½¿>À&ÁÂÃ Ä ÀÅNÆhÇhÂ/È`ÅÂ/˽Æ+¿>ÛªÖÒËhÍdÈhÍÉfÐÈ`ÅÉÊÅ$ÐÈh×bË :9<;#;#; ùX¶i¸ªü31® £¡ ¬F»Âr¶ªü3«Â»ª¨>£S® ¦RÀ¨r»£«P¬¡6£¶6¬¯ Ò ¨®f¶6¬ ¬®¶6£ ×1× ¬ ÷ir«¢¡6ô¡»¡ ®Âr¶ªÓ3Ârªr®f¶»Y® þ ¶ªrª»ü3®Y¬ ¦£«P¬ª¨r®7¬¡rû3µk¬ ®Rü1«¼ × ¼¨rº ¶»ª¨>£® × ½«HûtÓ1´¬¨3¾ÀÓ3º»¨r¬®® × ½«·»¨r£¶»c¬¨½ ªÂr¶ªü3«Â»»¨r£S®1cÂr31r®Q¡6r®fÀf¡$3¡»º®þ¹û¦¬«P¬SK¡rû3µ±¬Ó3¡ª¡b¶ª»¨>£ý®fü3«¼ × ¼¨rºqÓ3ºª¨>¬7þ ®7¬À[¬®¬Ó[¬¡6¬¶»¬<X¬¨ôþ
ýr¨ Ê«Àº»¨¼¶t¦R¨»K£«â¸ªå3® Sr:¬¨ý¬¨3tÓ3º»¨>¬® × ½«[¦¬«½®¬7# ¡ øį ²Q¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡ ¯ Ò £¶lªc¶ª¡t®ÂÔ3«ô¡ ¬«P¬ÔR¸»£ûU¬§¡¤¬¡»»¨ô¡6À®¬Â¶ª¡6®®¬®¼L¦¡6®r¨º® χ = 220.307 Âr χ ¯ = 0.357 ! 2 287 乪cÂô¡6«À¡6 χ þ¹r«À»¨«P£Ac÷ir«Àr«ºõ®K¦¬f¡»«À»À¦r«R®r«À«3¼ª»¨rH[¬ª3«¿¢¡¤¬få31® ¬ý®7¬Ô.¡»¡Ê¶ª¡6®®¡r¯ ¯q£3P¬±Âr·õ««P¬3Ó3P¬Qø¸§¡»º¶»Kµºå1¶6£»¬3¬®¾»Âr¶ªü3«Â»%¬¶6£KµK¬¾¬¨3ª[¬®S¡6r®fÀf¡$3¡»º3û3¬<c£ª®
Ô3£¶»ª¿À¡6£»»¬>« iª¦ÂÓþ ¦RÀ«P£ ûb¦R»¨K¡¾3Ó¦¬¯ T¨Âr¶§¡S¦RÀ¨r»£«â¸ªå3®c3ûTcl¡6¼¶§¡6Â3®â[ݬ R¦Â þ Ó1¶»ª¨>£ ¬Ó[¬7¡¤¬¢¡[¬»3«À¿À¡i¸ªå3Ý® ¯ý£3£L¦¬«HûÊõ««P¬3Ó3P£>¦¬«HûU¦¬«¬cÀK¡±å1µK¬1r¨¡¾¡»r»ª¨rü3®Ã¬´¦À«P£ ¬Ó[¬¡6®R®7¬«õ¦øį ÖÂr ÄK¯ ¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡6Ò® ¯ χ ¶ª¡»Âr®3® χ = 138.67 û χ = û X û r  ¯ m£ $¡ [¬¡»½3! û 3µ R¦ÂrÓ3¶»»¨r£kr¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµ 162.78 χ ªrSr«¢µÀ®Ãc£»À®R®7¬«w3=r 6.4¡»r®fK%¡ 1χ¡6º¬¨3=ª[277 ¬®)ûX¬ ¦À«P£ ¶»Ó3cÂKµ
¬¨r3S«ª¨r«£»æ3»£K£¡ ¯q£3P£>¦¬«3Âlõ«À«P¬3Ó1P£>¦¬«K¦À»¨K¡ þ¹b«ªº÷0¬¸ªæ 3 × ¬L¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂrQc««À¡»¡AcÂár«¢÷iK¬Ó7¸ªå1® ¯ 1% 2 2 2 2 2 287 ÊÔ3ªÂr × r ¶»ü3«ÀÂrªr öý»ª¨¯d TÔ1»Âr × RÂr¶»ü1«Ârªr ö᪻¨¯l ª¦ÂrÓ çhß ªKÙÖ Ùç² çßhSÖÖKç Ó[£ ÄLà ¾Öß Ä1Ä ÄÄLà ààà ¦R«P£ ÄÄ ¾h² ÙàÕ ÄÄL²¾ààà 3««P¬3Ó Äß¾ßÕÕ ÙhK² Äߪ1ÄÄ Ä¯ ²¯R¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡>¯ ÷Ð`É`ÃÉÅNÓ=ÙÀÅ$ÐË`Ê`Ó ÅÔÂÌ+ÍÔÅÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉÊÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÖÒË`ÅÉ`à Íáø
¿XÈ`ÅfËuùBúÚhÔ$ÙÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇhÕ>ÚÓ ÍdÈÇ`Ñ Èhà Ó=ËhÕ " " = ûÉ`Í ÍdËháÙhÓ=Ëü ÊÔ3ªÂr × r ¶»ü3«ÀÂr» öý»ª¨¯d ÊÔ3ªÂr × r RÂr¶»ü1«Ârªr öýª»¨¯d ª¦ÂrÓ çhß bÙÖ Ùç² çß ÖÖKç §¦ÂrÓ çß KÙÖ Ùç² çß ¾ÖÖKç Ó[£ ÄLhà SÖß Ä1Ä ÄÄLà ààà 3««P¬3Ó Äß¾ßÕÕ ÙhK² Äß1ÄÄ Ä¯ Ö1¯7¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡>¯ ú7ÔÂÌ+ÍÔÅÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉÊÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÖÒË`ÅÉ`à Íáø ¿XÈ`ÅfËùBúÚhÔ$ÙÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇhÕ Èhà Ó=Ë`Ñ¡úÚhÔ$ÙÉ`Â%Å$ÐÈÇhÕBûÉ`Í ÍdËháÙhÓ=Ëü " " ÊÔ3»Â × r ¶»ü3«ÀÂr» öý»ª¨¯d TÔ1»Âr × RÂr¶»ü1«Ârªr ö᪻¨¯l 3«À«P¬3Ó Ä ß¾ßÕÕ ÙhK² Äß1ÄÄ Ó[£
ÄLà ¾Öß Ä1Ä ÄÄLà ààà ¦R«P£ ÄÄ Sh² h ÙàÕ ÄIJ ààà ¦R«£ ÄÄS²h ÙàÕ ÄIJ<ààà įK1¯1¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡>¯ ú7ÔÂÌÍÔÅÅ$ÐÈh×ØÉÊØÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÖÒË`ÅÉ`à Íáø ¿BÈ`ÅfË)ù<ûÉ`Í ÍdËháÙhÓ=ËhÕ>ÚÓ ÍdÈÇ`Ñ Èhà Ó=ËhÕ>ÚÓ ÍdÈÇü öý»ª¨r»»ÂÂ × r ¡»f [£¡¬¨ô¡®7¬Ô1¡»å3®) û 1µ¬^³´¬µ¬¶»¶ª»¨r£¶6¬h¦3¬¡6®¨r½ ø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº¨Âr ªÔ.¶ª¡¤£G[¬«P£«¨r£»f¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»ÂrÂr3®<cK£«À«P¬Ô3¿¢¡¤£»¬®¶,ÞÂr«ª¨r¶»Á¾Þr»¬® R¦ÂrÓ3¶ª»¨r£±å¡6«À»½á®Âô¡ ÄLà " " 4 ÀÓ3ºª¨>¬®f
û3õ«À«P¬3Ó1P¬±Âq¬<¦R«£¶»¬:¦[¬7¡6®¨r½c¬Ó[¬¡6¬¡6®7¬¡w¡6r«Ø¸ªrªr)3µ«r × ý¦r33Hû)c¢¦r«¬ ®¶6£ ×3× P¬® «Âfµr» £õ¬¶6£Kµ®¬7¡q¬Ó3[£[¬® ¯lùU¦£ ×1× £S«£¡%3¬¡»¡»å3®)û 3µ¬¨°ÀÓ3º¾3r × ôþ ÷i«ÀµK£»«Ø¸»¬á¬QªÂr¶ªü3«Â»»¨r£S¡>ûf¿µ ¬Q»Âr¶ªü3«Âʦ¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂrÂô¡ ¯ý£3¬1ûfõ«À«P¬1Ó3P¬qÂw¬ý¦R«£Q¬Ó[¬7¡¤¬ ¬«P¬ÔR¸»£ × rÞ»ü3l« 3¡i¸ªü3®)¯ òNè@?vòBA:å@AYî ð!íNèë > éDC¾ìFEéGAgêH?IEîKJóLA:é ïåê®òGì[óåðGM òNñHíñ7O N {î P îKPGARQuñSP{î7ïGòNñTMî ðGUHêWV®îKP!èé!ó
³À¦«X®ô¦ÂrS¶ª»¨>£¬Ó[¬¡¤¬ £«À«w¶ªr3Ó3«®r¨r»ü31®R¶ªþ Âr SK¡ «P£7¡»¡6å1®¬¨«º¨º ¶»Ârª¨ × rûw¬¨r®Kþ × ½«ÊªrÔ3¶6¬®f¡»®få3°cÀ3Ó3f¡Q÷i«[¬ª¨r[£«få33®þ¤û,¬®¼L¦ô¡6®¨rº®ÂrÔ3Ô r [¬¡6£¶»¨¨rå3® Sr¬»¨>£þ :å33®f¶6¬h»¨ü3®f»Ârr¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂr®¡r¯ )«À¡»r»ª¨rü3®)û 3µ S3Ó3¶»ª¨>£3¬® ¦¬ rµ θ Ô3¬¶6¬S¡»r¶ªû,¬c«Àµ × º«T¬¶»£<¸ª««c¨ºø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº × ¬«»ô¡ × º«T»¨>£¶»c¬¨r½ [¬«£«b¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Âr ª¨>£S¿À$¡ [¬¡»½3¯AùUL¦£
×3× £:¬¨¡lÊ÷ir«¢¡6»»¨ü3®)Òû 3µ¾r¨õ¬°¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Â3¦£«À¡»¨r½ Q¬cc¬7þ r«»¨r«£»æDû Âb¬·®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨rºá¡»¶6¬3ª¨÷i¶ª£Þr½L¦¬«®7¬Ôf¸ªå3®Qc × r«Àº«T¬®3®f¶ªÂg¡ 3¬«P£«À¨>£»¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Âr®f¡ Ù θ p = . 1+θ õ¬<r¨ô¡x÷ir«¢¡6¡»r«Àr¨r¨ü3®³¬µK¬¶»¶ª»¨>£ Ô[¬¶6¬cÂô¡6r¶ªÂr¶ªº«.Àrû£¶tÞr»¬® ¬<K¬cc¬7þ¹«ª¨r«£ αþ¢¸»£¡x þÀ¸»£7¡·®r«À«Sr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨rfå33®)¯ λ %µ θ b¬ 3««P¬3Ó3®)û θ ¬ ª¦ÂrÓ3® û θ ¬<¦R«£3ûÂr θ ¬ c¬µK¬¶»®cÔ[¬¶6¬cÂô¡6r¶ª¯
õ¬¡¤£¶»¨¨rå3®ñSr ¬¨Yrµröª»¨r£® [¬«P£«À¨>£ª:¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»ÂrÀ3r® c`¬ :å3¾þ «À®r«À3RRÓ × rÞ»«ÀÂr»Âô¡>¯x³À¦r«mr®µ 3¬«P£«À¨>£ª¡XSÓ1r««Àr¨º<¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr¦£«¢¡6¨½ × 1c£«Àt«ª¨r«£»æû[¿Àµ ¬ Bin(m, p)þ¹r«À»¨«P£ p Ô[¬¶»¬cÂô¡6¶»Âr1r® × rÞrª«Â»Âr¶ªõ¦¬S»¨ü3®f»Ârü33®)û1÷ir«¢¡6Âô¦û 3µ m À»Sr¶ª¡r¯ Ò× À3SP£«ÀTr«À»¨«P£H X i ZY i i i 1 2 3 P (Xi = ki ) = «À®r«l3RÓS÷iü3¦ÂrKµ±«r:ÁSK¡6£¶6¬Ò L(p) = n Y m Ê31r®«K¬¶»¢¡6<å16¬Ò i=1 l(p) = 4
m ki p (1 − p)m−ki , ki n Y m ! Pn ki n X n n X X m log + logp ki + log(1 − p)(nm − ki ). ki i=1 i=1 i=1 i=1 ÄÄ ki p i=1 ki (1 − p)nm− Pn pki (1 − p)m−ki = i=1 ki . õr¶»¢¦£«â¸ªå3® p »¨r¶»ÀK¡ ¯ ∂l = ∂p ·r1Ó3r¨ô¦h [ n X ä¹13r7 i=1 Pn i=1 ki p ki − p P nm − ni=1 ki − = 0. 1−p n X ki − pnm + p p̂ = Pn i=1 i=1 ki = n X ki = 0. i=1 x̄ . m l¬µRS¬ × 3SP£«°r«À»¨«P£ p Ô[¬¶»¬S¡6¶»nm Â3r®c¬`<å1¾þ «®r«À3RfÓ × rÞ»«Â»¬ ¸ [¬«£««¬« ¦Âr¨ºÓ1ºå3¶»£»®Ã»¨r£¬Ý« ¬¨¼»ª¨rcå3¶6£¾»¨r£c¬`¹¤¯Y³¢¦« X û ∼ Bin(193611, p̂)  X ∼ Bin(117000, p̂) ûõ¨rÂr¶§¡ pˆ = 0.00002065999 û X ∼ Bin(1830486, p̂) Âr pˆ = 0.00000854700 ¯
hÙ q¬«P¬ÔR¸»£ ®7¬ÔR¸ªå3® ¬ θ = 000002066041 û pˆ = 0.00001037975 ûXÂr θ = 0.00000854708 × rÞ»«Â»®¡r¯ T¨r®h¬«¬ÔR¸»£ × rÞ»ü3«Ø¸ªü3® θ θ = 0.00001037986 ¦£/¶ [¬¡»½S¶ª¡»Âr®Âô¡q·»¨r½¶6£§¡ " ] ^% 2 1 3 Êθ4 = Ò 1 3 2 Γ(α, λ) 4 θ1 + θ 2 + θ 3 = 0.00001319579, 3 D 2 θi = 0.0000000000284202 Ô[¬¶»¬S¡6¶»3® × Þrª«ÂrªÂ¡ScK¡6å3S®S½RÓ3»¨r¶»Âô¦«m¦Âr¨r¨ü3®)¯ m1 (α, λ) = Eα,λ θi = ä¹13r α , λ 2 m2 (α, λ) = Eα,λ θi2 = Dα,λ θi + (Eα,λ θi )2 = α α + . 2 λ λ û怜«¬SK¡ λ̂ = ûí¬h1« S ¬ ¡6¬Ô[¬ª¨¡6¬«P¬¡»»¨½¶6£»3µR¨r¡r¯  S = 0, 0000000000284202 ¯
óáÀ»¨>£c¿¢¡»¦¬1û³¬µK¬¶»¶ª»¨>£ θ̄ = 0, 000013195785 Ô3¬¶6¬S¡»r¶ª θ ∼ Γ(6.13; 46431076) r«À»¨«P£ªæ ¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»ÂrA¦£«À¡»¨r½3¯ Ò ¨ «º ×1× Aª¨>£S¿À¡6£ 1r ¡»r®fK$¡ 3¡»ºk¡»r«Ø¸ªr»hÔ3¶»Þr¿¨3r®)û 3ª¨rrh®fü3«À¼ × ¼¨ºc½RÓ3ª¨rr¶ªr®¡¬«À®¬«c¬¨¡»å33®)¯ Ò ¨ô¡ 3Ó3«¢¡6å3®F¬¨ × ¬#û 1µ αþ¹¶»¬ÃÂr λþ¹¶6¬Ô K¡6»¬ ÷ir«À¿¶»1q¬«À®«1RÓF¦¬µ ccf¡»å3 µ3«ô¡6®¡ý¬¶6£fµf¡6¬«P¬få3«D[¬µ:å33®7£¡A¸ªr«ÀrK¡6ô¡»¡·¦«[¬1¯ Ò ¨:«ª¨r«P£ 99, 5%þ
·®K¦¬f¡»«À» 0.00003089 óỨr£S« [¬7¡6½<¡6L¦£ ×3× £1¾û 1µ¬c«Àr3¬µ ×3× «ÀµK¬ p ¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Â3û·¬Sr«ÀµR¶ª 1%þ «ªº÷0¬¸ªßæ 3 × ¬>¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Ârc««À¡»¡crµÀ®k«Àµ¬ 1Ô ¡6¨r§¡»r ¡»å3Ó7¸ªå3® «å1¡6¬»¿¢¡¤¬1 ûc«Àµ ª¨rr¶ªK¡ ³´¬µ¬¶»¶ª»¨r£F¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Â¦ 3S c¬¶»¬Ó¬ ¡»¼ ×3× D¶»ª¨>£Âô¦¬« û[¬¨±¬<¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Â p = 0, 0000207589 ¯ α̂ = θ¯i 2 Sn 1 2 Sn 2 n 2 n 4 ` ÄÙ Ò »Âr¶ªü3«Âª¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Âr® Sr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨>£»£[£«
3¬»1«½K¬¸»£¶»å13® r«H¯)%µ ξ ¬¨µ ¶»»¨r£®Ô[¬¶»¬cÂô¡6¶»ûÊSr«¢µ × º«t¬ »Â¶»ü3«ÀÂr<¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Âr®»¨r£c¿¢¡%[¬7¡6½®)¯ Ò × rÞrª«Â$3¨÷i«¢þ 3¬»¨[£«À¡¾¶»»¨r£ ® ®¯ý£3P¬1ûl««¬3Ó3¬ÂrS¬ ¦R«£3¯ Ò ξ ¯ý£3¬1û ξ õ«À«P¬1Ó3P¬1û ξ ¬ ¦À«P£ Â ξ ³¬µK¬¶»¶ª»¨>£ Ô[¬¶»¬S¡6¶»¯ ʵhªÂr¶»ü1«Âr§¡´SRÓ3r«À«r¨ºÃ¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Ârý¦£«À¡6¨r½¶ª½«õþ>3¬ Þ6¬® ¬ »Âr¶ªü3«Âá¡6ÂrKµÂ¡Q¦»»¨ü3y® [µr« × ôþ¤ûÐå3µ¬fæ3µ «S3Ó 3¬¡6½3¾û 3µ ×
1c£«À·r«»¨ôþ «£»æDûb¦¬µR<¬¨ r«Àº ×3× Àr®ô¡ rµÃ¬¨rµ × r÷irl« [¬»¨[£l« [¬¡0¸ªå1®¬ ªÂr¶ªü3«Â ¬Ó[¬¡6¬1®R¶»¬1¯ ³¢¦r« û Âr X ∼ Bin(117000, p̂) û,¨rÂr¶§¡ X ∼ Bin(110000, p̂) X ∼ Bin(193611, p̂) û  ¯bä¹31r¬ p = ¡6¶»¬3»¨ô÷i¶»c£7þ pˆ = 0.001463636 pˆ = 0001379054 pˆ = 000174359 Þ½L¦¬«[¬Ó1½Ó33¬® ξ = 0.001465782 û ξ = 0001380958  ξ = 0001746635 ¯A³´¬µ¬¶»¶»»¨r£ Ô3¬¶6¬S¡»r¶ªÂr3®¦£$¶ [¬7¡6½¾Âr¶§¡6Âr®Âr3® × Þr»«ÀÂrªh i 1 2 3 4 a 7 1 2 3 1 i 2 Êξ4 = ξi 1+ξi 3 ξ1 + ξ 2 + ξ 3 = 0.001531125 3 Ò Q¬S¬7þ r«À»¨«P£öÔ[¬¶»¬cÂô¡6¶»rÀ3r® ×
Þrª«ÂrªÂf3¨ ξ¯ = 0.001531125 Âr D ξ = û1¬S × º« α̂ = 95.99520109 Âr λ̂ = 6269585906 ¯ 0.00000002442 Ò c¬µK¬¶»¶ª»¨>£Kø¸§¡»º¶»Kµº¨Ârª¶»w¦[¬¡»®¨½ý»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂrª¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂrô¡ASr 3¬¡¤£¶ª¨r½Ô[¬¶»¬S¡6¶rû r«»¨r«£»æF¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂrõ¦£«À¡6¨r½3¯ Ò ¨ r«»¨r«£ 99, 5%þ ®K¦¬K¡6«Àª ξ ∼ Γ(96; 62695.86) ¯,ó᪨>£S« 3¬¡6½X¡6L¦£ ×3× £1û 3µ<¬ý«Àr[¬µ ×1× «Àµ¬ p ¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr3û¬c«ÀµR¶» 0.0019635 þ¹ «»º÷0¬¸ªõæ 3 × ¬>¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Â c««ô¡»¡:rµR®«Àµ¬õ 3Ô ¡»Âr¨rÀª¡ ªr
¡»å3Ó7¸ªå3®r«å¡¤¬ª¿À¡¤¬3 û 1% Sr«¢µª¨rr¶ªK¡ ³´¬µ¬¶»¶»»¨r£¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr 3cÂr c¬¶6¬Ó ¬ ¡6¼ ×3× ¶ª»¨>£Â¦¬«Hû¬¨u¬ ¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂr p = 0.0016775933 ¯ Y 2 i 4 %^%bc %(^%b ( ÄLß i d ±³² ~ Fkk à ! ô~ µ °q± 3× × r ¬ ¶ªÂr»¨ × ¬¨íSÂrK¡ÿc × Þrªü3«À¡ÿþ ¦¬µRû¬ c¬µ¬¶»¶ª»¨r£^¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº»¼®R¶ª ¦[¬¡»®¨½®[¬«P£«UÂá»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂr§þx¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr®¦£¶/[¬¡»½ Âr¶§¡6Âr®Â¡á÷i«[¬ª¨r[£«À¦¬c®fª¨>£S«Ø¸ªå3®rµ
¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº¨r»¶ª°þ¹SK¡X R¡6¶»Â »Ô ¶§¡6¶6¬þT¦[¬7¡6®¨r½ × ¬«»¡ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£xÓ3¿Ø¸»£¡>¯ e ç åWfué!ññõç é!èòNñHò@gyåð!íî9ò t¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªå33® «ÀµK¬ªÔ.¶§¡6«À½®7¬¡XÞÂr«¨°Sr1û)¬®f® 3 Þr»¬®¬«®7¬«ÀS»¨r¶»Á3ûÒ3¬3r ¶ªr3ÓRþ ª¨r¶»rªr ¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº¨r1r®)¯ ³À¦«Q¬Yù ¬¨ ºk»Ô ¶§¡ × ¬«Àrª¡ × º«á¬Ó3½Ó1½YÂrª¨rªÂrü3µ°r«À«P£¡6£7þ ªå3®´®¼«À¡»»Â¡áSr¡6Âr¶ª¿À¡ª¡6¡»U¦r«Àü3®)û%»¨rü1®RªÂrü1®´¦¬ «Àµ¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª¶6¬1û.c«Àµ»¨ü3®f»Ârrª¡»Âr
1r«Àµ¡ª¡6ü3Ý ® [¨rô¡6X¬¨µK£«À¡¤¬«P£3r «Þ»½ r«À«P£¡6£°®¼«¢¡6»Âr¢¡>¯ ùUr¶»SÂr®fü31®¡6H [£¡<÷iÓ3r¨¡6ô¡ KµRæ7¸§¡ × ¬«»¡»[¬«P£«À¶6¬1û × ¬«rª¡ × º« r¶ªrÓ3º ¶ª®f®7¬K¡66£¶6¬:«ÀrK¬«P£ ×3× 40%þ w¶ª®f®7¬K¡66£ r»ô¡6Âû ·»Âr¶ªü3«Â»®»ô¡6Âr´¬¨á¶§¦ªU««£¡¤£ª®S®¼«¢¡6»ÂrÀ¶»¯ "q¨»K£«Ø¸ªå3®Sr¾¨rr®¡õ®fÞrªÀ¡·¶ªÂr»¨«ô¡6rª ×3× rD¯ h ih jlk0monoprqLsKt t uv0uop<nwxwoyotv0p<zK{osKq t¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªå33® × ¬´¬¨°¶ª¦»U®¼«¢¡6ªÂr®¡»Âr¶ª¿À¡6»Âô¡<ÄLà¾cÀ««À½
,¡§þ¹À¾¦£«À«P¬«Ø¸ªå3®)¯Ê«ªºØ[¬««P£»¶6¬ ¨ ª®f[¬®´¡»Á33ô¡>ûmÓ3ª[¬®fÞ»¢¡ × «3Ó3«å33®)ûS«¢µ r««£¡¤£»®f¶6¬cá«H3¡ý»¨rü1®RªÂr3ûUÂrQ¨rr® ¦¬«À½,£¶6¬À[¬®ý塤£[¬L¸»£¶»å31® û«P£¡$[¬¡i¸ªå3®)ûh3µQrµ£«À¡6¬«P£°3 «Â¶$3ô¡6¡»«:¼ª»¨r¶»º«R¦¬<ª¨r½3¯ Ò ¨TrµR®õ¬µK¬¶ª¶»ª¨>£®½$¶ [£¨ 33«P¬Ôf¸»£ ÄHÄ KS1Ó3r3®f»¨>££¶»¬Xr«Â$¶ 3ô¡6º®q¬x¡6Âr¶ª¿À¡»Âr»®¼¡6« ««£¡¤£ª®)ûR£¶6¬®f®7¬«[µRü1¡»¡r¯
õµ¬3À¡ª¡w®fü3«À¼SÔ.K¡l¦3¬¡6®¨rÀ®c¬¨õ ¡»¶»Â ªÔ¶§¡6«À½®f¶6¬1ûK«Àr¿À¶ª¦¬1û Ä>Õ h HX o| 1µY¬ ¶6¬¸§¡»å3®¦Âr¶»f3¬¸§¡6¡ª¡ × >¬>¦¬¡»®¨r£»®Âr¶§¡c®f®¶»¬¼ª»¨r¡[¨rô¡»¡»¡61r®kc ¦r«Àü3®)¯ « 1r ¬kÔ.K¡»¼»»¨r® À»Sr¶§¡6¡»Ârªûá1®£ ×3× Þ6¬®u¬k[¬µR»£¶»3Ó3®Âû3µhrµ R¡6¶»ÂªÔ.¶§¡ × ¬«rª¡ × r«ª¨rf¦rÓ1¡6º°»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂrb®r¨r«Â»x÷i¶ªK¡ × ¬3µK¬ SÂr¶/3¡»º3ûS«¢µr ¼»»¨r®®¼¶ªü3«%c¨r3¯ }
Ê««P£7¡¤£w¡»¿Ô3å16¬õ¸»£¶»½ × ô¡6r3Âr« q¶ õ«¢¡6¶6¬[¬3x¦À¨rªK£«P¬7¡ Ùþ6ÄLà¾ààà ,¡ ¼f¡»r Ö¾ààà ,¡ªþ ¡6½«(«Ó × ù Ä7þ§²ç<ààà ,¡«Ó × QÀÔ3»¨r«ÀÂr Äþøßà ààà ,¡«Ó × "l¬¶»¶»¬¡6®Ârª¨r¿À¡»Ârû ª¨rÓ3Âr ÄþøÙ¾ààà ,¡ Tó Äþ¤Ä>à ààà ,¡ m¬ × ¶ª¦R¨»K£«¬¡6® ıààà ,¡«Ó × ³ ^¦R¨»K£«¬¡X®K¡6¶6¬»¨¡6¬KµK¬K¬« ÄLçà¾ààà ,¡«Ó × Ê««P£7¡¤£w¡»¿Ô3å16¬<÷ir®K¦º × ô¡6r3Âr« q¶ qÔ «P£X»¨r × £ × ¬ Ùà7þ§ÙÖ ààà ,¡«[¬Ô qÔ «P£X»¨r × £ × ¬ ÄÄ>àSààà ,¡«[¬Ô ³Á1¡»Â¡õ3Âr«À®Rü1«
û3ÀÔ3»¨¶»¼¨r¿À¡»Âr ÄLàSààà ,¡«Ó × ÊµR»¨r¶»Á :Á1¡6Âô¡ Ùç¾ààà ,¡«Ó × óõ¼¨rÔ r<Á1¡»Â¡ àSààà ,¡«Ó × q¬µ:Á1¡6Âô¡ ÄLÙç ààà ,¡«Ó × Ô rÞr£«Àx<Á1¡»Â¡ Ùàà¾ààà ,¡«Ó × Ê¶»¨rª¡»r«3¿À¡»Âr Ä>à7þ§çà ààà ,¡«Ó × Ù¯¢Ä¯1¡6£ × «P£¨>¬¡r¯ ÂÚhÉÅÓÁÍ ÍdÈh¿XÈ`ÅÉÊÊ&Î`Íá¿xÅÔBÇÁÓ ~ | LX [ X } X Y X X Y X X [ X ~ ~ X ~ X HX HX X X X " X .¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº × ¬«Àr»ô¡l»¶»£cµK¬¶6£K¡t»¨r¶»¨f3ô¡6º:«ÀµK¬cªÂr¶»ü1«Ârûfc«Àµ<SP¬7¡»¡¸»£¶ª½ × ¡6Q»¨>¬þ ®r«À«P£¡6£»¶»¬ ¦¬
ª¨rü3®fªÂr ¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6¡»¡63¬®)ûxÂrc«Àµ¬ ªÂr¶»ü1«Ârcûxc«Àµ÷i®f¦º × ¡6r«À«P£¡6£ª¡ ÀÂrKµr« ¯ Ò Ù¯¢RÄ x¡¤£ × «£¨>¬7¡ × ¬«Àµ¬3®7¬¡ª¶»«À® ÷ir«US3Ó3®Â¡õ®7¬¡6½¶»£ × ½« û[Sr«¢µr®ª¨rr¶ªþ 4, EJKI$P=I4?<5 3EOHD{5iRI4OHP<I4Qh2/P<L4I4?<I/C }!WODi/I4JIS?=?B5P<L4TQWQ`EC /; CH?BI4CRL/UK3THP<LS?BWJKDHTC }!WOHDG/I4JIS?<?<5+P<L4THQ`WQEC Äç ¡»r µø¸§¡»º¶»Kµº × ¬«Àrª¡»¶»£´«®ÂrÔ3¨r«1¡6ºSr«À«P£¡6£»®®¼¨r±¡6¬¶ª¡»¨r3¬®)û3¡6r¶ªc»¨¡6» ¬ ¡»r«Ø¸ªr»ªÂr ÀÂrKµq3Âr«À®Rü1«
ûRÂrx®f¨r£¶»½«P¬:¬:[¬µR»£¶»3Ó3®ªc¶ª¡»¡6»q¦Ârô¡»¡r¯Tµ®fw¬µK¬7þ ¶»£¨>¬7¡>û 3µ¬¨Qrµr®7¬¡6½¶ªP£® × ¬<S«¢µr¡»¿Ô3å3ªæ<Á1¡6Âô¡6®¡õ»¶»«À[¬® ʵRª¨rr¶ªÁ × r¬L¦¬¡»®¨r£»® Ô Âr«ÀÓ[£å3<« [Þr¬c® 3r«¢µ¶ª¡»Â¡6«û´¡6¼¶ªÂrªr® ¶»¼¨¿À¡»Âr»û Ô r¶»¢÷iÂr¶ªP£ ªÂr¶ªü3«Â»r®««£¡¤£»¬1û1®fÀ®¼¡6hº [£¶ª¡¹µ¬7þl«À«ô¡»¦áª¨r 3¹¸ª%» × ¨rÂqr«À«P£¡6£6¬ûå7¸N¸·¬SÔ3å1¡¤£Þr½1¯ ó¼¨rÔ. × >¬>¦¬¡6®¨>£»[¬®ª¨>£S¿À¡6¬[¬®Ô«Ó[£å1B«
Ê<Á1¡»Â¡õ¬¾fµr«ÀºÞ»ºKµ¬®fUª¨>¬®7¬ª¨>£Dû ¦Âr¡6¬ Þ»1®«£6¬1û Ó1r¡6ª¡qr«À¡6£>¦«À¿À¡¤£6¬1û3¿À¨rü3«À¡»%»¨>¬«P¬® ¦¬¶»¶6¬7¡¤¬1û[Ô r¶ªÀ÷iÂr¶ªP£·ÀÓ3r:Á1¡6Âô¡6r®)û)®7þ Ô KµK¬Þr»f¡õÔ3«¬»¨ô¡6®7¬1û1Þr»f¡ª¡6¼¶ªÂrX÷ir«¢¡¤£¶»£r¯ õ¬µ<Á¡6¡»r®Ô Âr«Ó3£å3B« TÞ × KµK¬®f¡6£¸ªU»¨rr¨Ârû«c¨rrÞrªK¡6µ3rª¿À¡6Ârû%£7%¡ [¬¡»«½¾Sr«À«¢þ ®7¬ªý»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂr<Á1¡»Â¡»ûõ£%¡ [¬7¡6«À½
[¬ªý»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂr<Á1¡»Â¡»ûqSr«À«®7¬ªõª¨rr¶§¦®÷irÓ3ô¡»¡»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂrªÂr3® :Á1¡6Âô¡6û [¬ª:»¨r¶§¦r® ÷irÓ3ô¡»¡ »Â¶»ü3«ÀÂrªÂr3®^<Á1¡»Â¡»û±¦£«Àl« [Þr¬ <Á1¡»Â¡rû:KµK¬®f<r¶»À3ÞrªÂr¶ªü3«Â :Á1¡6Âô¡6û[®Ô KµK¬Á3¶ªm»Âr¶ªü3«Ârû3¦Âr¡6¬¬3rå3¶ª¨¬1¯ óáü3«À¼3«ÀrX<Á1¡6Âô¡6®Ô.«Ó[£å1B« bªæ3«Àµ¦Âr¡6¬ªÂr¶»ü1«Ârr«À«P£¡6£6¬û1<Á1¡»Â¡»r® Sr«À«®7¬»Hû+3¬»m[¬µfþ ¶»®rD¯ ʨrr® × ru¬Ã®¼«À¡6ªÂr® × uSÂr3r »¨r¶»Ô.«3®¬¨ »ô¡6«r¶ªf [¬ ×
«ÀÀ¡¤£Þr½ ®¼«¢¡6»Âr® 0¬Sr«Àµr® ®¼«À¡»»Â<Ùçþøßà ààà ,¡ «[¬Ô·«Àf 3ô ¡ ÄÙ û)¦¬«¬SK¡X¬¾®¨rr«ÀÂrõÓ3¹¸ªÂr¶»°¬¾<å33®7£ × ½« ¦¬«À½®f»Âýc¬¡»¡» × Â¶»Þ»¼®f®3Âr°»ûD¬Sr«Àµr®rµ 3½[¬Ô »¡»Âr b¸ªr«ÀrK¡6º»r®)û1r 3µ µ ¡»¼ ×3× 3½[¬Ô3 ¡6¬¶ª¡»½ ÷ir«ÂÔ3ü3«ÀÂrỶ6£¯:ù,L¦£ ×3× £9û 3¬¬ × ¬«»¡°3H 3r¨r c®¼¨rr«À¿À$¡ 3¡»º 1r«Àµrk¡6¼¶§¡6Âf¡rûl¬®f®¶ Ô3«Àå3»¨ × ¬kSÂr × ¡6»¨r£««À¿À¡6£»lÂr SrK¡6»X®¼«À¡»»Ârr®À:÷ir«Àc¶»ü
1¡ªþ 1r®)¯ Ò ¨ ¬Ó[¬¡»® × ½«U«£%¡ 3¬¡6½3û 3µ£¶3H [£Kµ´ÀK¡6r1¨r¿À¦ª¨¡6£«Àµ´¡6¼«À¡6¼¡»¡[¬Ôû Ârq3f [£fµ :Á1¡6Âô¡xrª¡»Âr¬±®¼«À¡»»Âr®Sµ¶»6¬¬¨qr® × qª¨r¼® 3ô¡63® ¯ Ò ÄLß Þ®f® × º«)¡6å1Ó7¸ªå3®)Òû 3µSrµ ¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµºQ»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂr°£¡6«¬»¬ ßàààààà ,¡rûD¦¬µR#3¬¦¬«¬®fASrªÂr¶ªü3«bÂrQ««P£7¡¤£ª¶6¬ª¨r¶ªå3« û Àr[¬µ¼ª»¨rr® ¡»r/¶ 3rl« 3¡»®)¯ " X X nwGwRo*vrp<uo{ w¬«»¡»3¶»®R®7¬K¡»6£3¬®<¬¨XS1º»ü3«Hûh[¬Q¬ ×
À¨¡»»¿¢¡6¡ª¡Ê¬®7¬¶»¬¡¤£¡»½«÷iü1¡»«û 3À¶ª¡6«<÷ir««ÀÂrÔ º3û ®fü3«À»¼ × H[¬¡6£X®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨¡»Â × r rµÂ¦r × r«Àü3«ªæ3«Àµrû)Âr·c¬¶6¬Ó[¬3Ó3½ ®7£¶ª»RÓ[£§¡»¨rK¦rÓD¯ t¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªå33® ¬¶ª¶6¬¬¨»¡»¶»¡»Âr¶ª¿À¡>:û [¬´¬¶»®f®7¬K¡6»£ SÂr¶ª¡»Âr®«K¬«£ ×3× 40%þ¹r¯õµ¨ Ô K¡66¬SÀ¡°X¸ªr«ÀrK%¡ 3ô¡>ûÊS«¢µr¡6r§¡6¶ªÂr»¨r®ÃSr1fµRÀ¶»®7£¶ª»RÓ [¬7¡6[¬®)ûT¬ HÙ¯ Ù Q¡6£ × «P£¨>¬¡ ¡6¬¶ª¡6¬«c¬¨¨>¬1¯ Ä h h
ùUr§¡6¶ªÂr»¨r®r»¨»Âr®£¶»ªÓ[£6¬ ®f®7¬K¡6»£¾÷i®7¬ ʵRÀ® ÷ir«À»º ¦Â¡¤¬h¦£«À«¿À¨rü3«À¡»¡»º«á¦¬«½¡»r«â¸ª r«¢¦rª¨¡»Âr»Y¦¬µ^¡»r«Ø¸ªr 70% :Á3®¼RÓ3Ârª®ÂÔ1¡6«r1»Âr ʵRÀ®F÷ir«À»ºÃ¦Âr¡6¬®¼Kµ¼®f¿¨rü1«¡÷i¼«À¼¡»¡S¦¬«½¡6r«Ø¸ªr«À¦»¨ô¡6Ârª ¦¬µ 65% ¡»r«Ø¸ªr·<Á3®¼Ó3»®ÂrÔ1¡»r«3»Â ʵRÀ® ÷ir«À»º ¦Â¡¤¬ ®¼Kµ¼®f¿¨ü3«ô¡ ¬«P¬¡ª¡ ¦¬«½ ¡»r«Ø¸ªr 60% «À¦r»¨ô¡6» «7<Á3®¼RÓ3»®ÂÔ1¡6«3»Â ¦¬µ rµÀ® ®Â¨ ¡»r«Ø¸ªr
«À¦r»¨ô¡6» «7<Á3®¼RÓ3»®ÂÔ1¡6«3»Â ʵRÀ®fü1¦«ÀµR®få7¸N¸·¡6«â¸ªXr«À¦rª¨¡6»°¦¬µ<Á3®¼Ó1Âr»®ÂrÔ1¡»r«Àr3ªÂr 20% ʵRÀ® <å1¡6¬¡6½å¸N¸w¡»r«Ø¸ªr·r«¢¦rª¨¡»Âr»°¦¬µ :Á3®¼RÓ3Ârª®ÂÔ1¡6«r1»Âr 10% w£¶»Sr«¢µ c£Xå7¸N¸w¡6r«Ø¸ªrX«À¦»¨ô¡6Ârª±¦¬µ <Á3®¼RÓ3»®ÂÔ1¡6«3»Â 5% ʵRÀ® ¬«ª½ñ¦Âr¡¤¬ Þr × ®¼¨ÂrÔÿ÷i¼«¼¡ª¡Ã¦¬«½ ¡»r«â¸ªkr«À¦rª¨¡6»^¦¬µ 70% :Á3®¼RÓ3Ârª®ÂÔ1¡6«r1»Âr ʵRÀ® ¬«ª½ ¦Âr¡6¬ Þr × ®¼¨ÂrÔ3À ¦¬«½ ¡»r«â¸ª
r«À¦rª¨¡6» ¦¬µ 70% :Á3®¼RÓ3Ârª®ÂÔ1¡6«r1»Âr ʵRÀ®¬«À»½Ã¦Â¡¤¬Y«£ × ª¨>£¶ ®¼¨rÔ.¦¬«½1û·¦¬µ µR® «£ × ÷i¹¸¡»r«Ø¸ªr 50% «À¦r»¨ô¡6»±¦¬µ<Á3®¼Ó3»®ÂrÔ1¡»r«3»Â ʵRÀ® «£ × ÷iø¸ × ®7¬ ª¨rÀf¡i¸ªÂ × r ¦¬«À½ r«¢¦»¨¡»Ârª ¦¬µ ¡»r«Ø¸ªr 30% :Á3®¼RÓ3Ârª®ÂÔ1¡6«r1»Âr ʵRÀ® [¬µR«£ × å7¸N¸t¡6«â¸ª«À¦r»¨ô¡6»±¦¬µ <Á3®¼Ó1Âr»®ÂrÔ1¡»r«Àr3ªÂr 5% w£¶»Sr«¢µ c£X«P£ × å7¸N¸t¡6r«Ø¸ªrX«À¦»¨ô¡6Ârª±¦¬µ <Á3®¼RÓ3»®ÂÔ1¡6«3»Â 2%
³3Ó3®Â¡»¨r «£¡6½®ÂrÔ rª»ÂrÂr3®¡»r«Ø¸ªr·r«¢¦rª¨¡»Âr» 100% ʵRÀ® »¨r «P£7¡6½®ÂrÔ r»ªÂrÂ3r® ¡»r«Ø¸ªr·r«¢¦rª¨¡»Âr» 35% Ò c3KµR × r ¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡»¡»¡ý¬ £ª®»¨rí«£¡6½®ÂrÔ rª»Âr¡°£¶ý¬ × ¨ þ 65% ¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªrªrSÂrKµf¡qSrr«º¨rºRrr«¢¦rª¨¡»¡»¡» Ò× rª¨rÂr«Àº®ÂÔ.»ªÂr¡»r«â¸ªXr«¢¦rª¨¡»Âr» 60% Ò ª¨>¬«À½Â¶»¨Âr®¡»r«â¸ªXr«¢¦rª¨¡»Âr» 10% Ò ¨Q¿¨r«Àr«Àº®ÂÔ.»»ÂS¡»r«Ø¸ªrXr«¢¦»¨¡»Ârª 5% ÙR¯ Ù¯¡¤£ × «£¨>¬7¡>¯ :ÅÉ`ÃÒÊ&É`ÍdÈ`ÅÓ:¿XÈ&ÏfÍdÈÐËh¿ [ h h
95 IJ ot8sKp<sDvrqLot ut w¬«»¡»[¬«£«RÓ3H[1¿ÞrÀ½7¸»¬á£«¢¡¤¬«£ × ¬û`[¬Q¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡»¡»¡b¬®7¬¶6¬7¡¤£¡»½«R÷iü1¡»«û 3À¶ª¡6«<÷ir««ÀÂrÔ º3û ®fü3«À»¼ × H[¬¡6£X®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨¡»Â × r rµÂ¦r × r«Àü3«Sr 3¬« ¯ h ç e åWfué!ññ Ò Ó1¡»¡6¬®FµFø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº å1¶6£r»ô¡6 ¬®¼L¦ô¡6®¨rºk¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Ârr®â3¬«P£«X¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Âh ªÂr¶ªü3«Â,¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Âh p̂ = 0, 001528 ¯ Ò × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£m¡¤¬¶ª¡¤¬¬QÄwÂô¦.¯ p̂ = 0, 00001320, Ò ¡¤¬¶§¡¤¬¦ÂÂr æ7¸ª¶6¬®¼$¡ 3¡»º¬
®¼L¦ô¡6®¨rºÂ¦R¶»¯ Ò ª¨>£S¿À¡6£»®®¼3Kµ ×3× «À¦Âr¨H3¡»º»Â SP¬7¡»¡:÷i«À¡»r»ª¨rü3®)û 3µcÀ3Ó3Yª¨r¶»¨rºRÓ3Âý¸»¬Rå3£¶Ä¯ þáÓ3rÞr × r¶Sß1įÓ3º»¨>¬®R¶»¬ »¨½« ¯ Ò Ó1¿â¸A¸»¬Rå3£¶±ÄôþÀ¸ªÂrrªrÓ3®r¯ Ò × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»%¼»»¨r ¹¸§¡6ºRr¶ªfµº × ¬«rª¡ × º«%ª¨>£¶ª¬¨rؽ 3¬«P£«%» þ ¡»Âr Ý×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ò × À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªw¼ª»¨r ø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº × ¬«Àrª¡ × º«t»¨>£¶»c¬¨r½3ûÊ«ÀrK¬«P£ ×3× 40%þ¹ ¶ª®f®7¬K¡66£c»¡»Âr«r÷ir«â¸ª ×3× ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ò
¨°¶ª¦»%®¼«À¡6ªÂr® ¡6¶»¿À¡»Ârª°«Àr÷i«â¸ª ×3× ×ªÓ ÍáÕ ÍáÓBÛ ¿¹þ ¡6¼¶ª¡6Â3®)¯t³À3Ó3r»¨r¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârª¶»<¬ «Àf 3ô¡6»Ârõ®fl[¨¡6Âõ3¬µR6£¬Sàþ¤ÄLà¾ààà¾ààà ,¡ªþ ¡»r¶N¸ªrÓõ¯ ʨ¡S«Àr>¸ª ×3× ¬Ã÷i«Àµf¡61:¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Âw¦£«À¡»¨r½L¦¬«t«f 1¡61«Àr¿À¶»3HûbÓ3¬ ®¼3Kµ ×3× ª¨>£S¿À¡6£QÂr¶ªÓ3r®Â × rÓ3À»¨r®f¶ª¡6À¨>£«Ø¸ªå3® :¬¨ i. ª¨r¶»¨rºRÓ3Â:®7£¶»®fd[¨rô¡6ÂrªÂ¡:«r¿À¶»½ X ¦¬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr ¦£«¢¡6¨½¾¬S®¼L¦¡»®¨rº®ÂrÔ3Ô r 3¨°®f< S««À½ ,¡ 0, 00001529 10
S « À « ½ , ¡ 9 0, 00004586 S « À « ½ , ¡ 8 0, 00007644 S « À « ½ , ¡ 7 0, 00007644 S « À « ½ , ¡ 6 0, 00009173 ¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Ârr«H¯ S « À « ½ , ¡ X = 5 0, 00001320 S«À«½ ,¡ 0, 00015288 4 S«À«½ ,¡ 0, 00022932 3 S«À«½ ,¡ 0, 00018345 2 S«À«½ ,¡ 0, 00065738 1 S«À«½ ,¡ 0, 99845802 0 ` %(^%b ( 3 9<; I 3 9<; H X i @X 2X 2X 2X 2X 2X i 2X 2X 2X 2X 2X ÄLÖ m£¡$[¬¡»½3ûN3µ çFS««À½ ,¡§þ¹¡Þr»¬®[¬«P£«±»¡»Âr [¨¡6ü13®^®f û°¬F¡»¼ ×3× ±Âr¶§¡6Âr®u»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂr  ¶ª®f®7¬K¡66£
rª¡»Âr^®r¶ªü3«±®fd[¨rô¡6Ârª¶»¯ ʨrr®r × r«Àü3«Q¬¨ r«À»¨«P£æ1µh«ô¡»¡Sr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨¦¬1û 1µ¬ c£¶XrS«¿¢¡6¡ª¡Xß S««À½ ,¡ªþ x¦£¶$3¬¡6½¾Âr¶§¡6®¡õ®7¬ÔR¸ªå3®)¯ Ò× À¨¡»»¿¢¡6½ »¨r¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârª»r«U®7¬Ô Þr»«P¬¡»X®¼«¢¡6ªÂrm¬¾®¼L¦¡»®¨rº® þ õµR3¼®¼®f3r®:¸»£¶ª½¾®r¨Ó3¡»1¸ªå1¡¤¬«ÀÂr® 30% þ õµR3¼®¼®f3r®:¸»£¶ª½ ÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡6%¸ªå1¡¤¬«ÀÂr® 10% þ¹óQ¨rÓ3ô¡6m®¼«À¡6ªÂr 30% þ )«ÀµK¬¬¡»x®¼«À¡»»ÂrÒ 15% þ¹óQ¨rÓ3ô¡6mÓ[¬¶»¬ × ®¼«¢¡6ªÂr ¿ þ )«ÀµK¬¬¡»xÓ[¬¶6¬
× ®¼«À¡6ªÂr ¿H¯ Ò ¡»¼¶»«ÀÂr§¡cþ ¦¬µÀ¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£c÷i«S3Ó[£6£[¬®k¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂrÂô¡ªªþ Ò3® ¡6®fK¡0¸ªü3®)û 30%þ¹ ¶ª¡»Âr®f®«ýcÀ3Ó3FÂô¦¶ª¯ Ò ¡»¼¶»«ÀÂrªr®k®¼¨Â¡6¬¶ª¡»¨r[¬®F¬¨r®k¬ »¨r¶»¨ºÓ3»® ûX¬Sr«¢µr®¡»r¶§þ SÂrª¨rô¡6r [¬«£«wSP¬¡ª¡ »¨Á333®FSr1¯YùUrÞ 13®7¬X®7¬c¬¡6«£ × 5%. óár¨Ó3¡»£««À£fµRå31® Á$Ð`ÁÂØÙ&ËhÂ/Ë&Ïc»¨r¶ª¨rºRÓ3Âr × º«w£««H¯³RÓ3««ü13® × ®f¨r£¶»½«¬r¨r®f®«X¬ª¨rr¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârªr®f®«x¦Â¨rü31®
ª¨>£S¿À¡6£»®¬7¡>û·r«Àº»¨¼¶ rµÂ¦R¶ªûqc¬¸ªÓ ®fÀ÷i塤£ª3¯ [r«¢¡6¡»r«Àr¨r¨ü3®)û 3µ ¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡6½ÃSª¡ ¦r¨¡6 × :¬¨° R¡»¶»ÂrªÔ.¶§¡ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£·¡»r¶ªc®¡rû)r¨r¨r«,¬S®r¨Ó3¡»b£«À«c£3KµK¬« û1Âõ¶»¶ª°¦Âr¨ ¬ ®7¬«À®Rå1«P£Þ½¡r¯ Ê«ªº «ÂÔ.»®ÂK¡cSRÓ3r«À«r¨¨rü3®Ùà´Âô¦R¶»r«Àº¶» × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£»x£««£KµRå33®7¬¡r¯ Ò ¨£««£Kµf¡ ¬¡»¼¶»«ÀÂrûDÂrý¬ × ¬«»ô¡6Y3¬«P£«m®¼¦¡»®r¨ô¡6Â × Ãc»¨Á3K¡á»¨r¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârªr® Þrª¼®f®f¡»®)¯ Ad¡6¼¶»«Â»
ª¨>£¨r¬«Â®c««À¡»¡S¬Ùà1¯Ð¦¦Âr¶» ¬YÄLà r¨r¶ªr£««À£fµ × ½«t¦£/¶ [¬¡»½K¬YÞr»å1Ô[£ Ö »¨r¶»¨ºÓ1Âr c¬¶»¬Ó Âr«À¡ × rDûõ3À3ÞrÀ Âr¶§¡6«S 3ª»¨>¬ ×3× ¡6£>¦¶»¬3Âr¨3 ¯ Ò Ù¯ &ß S¡6£ × «£¨>¬¡¡¤¬¶§¡¤¬«À¬¨¨>¬ £««£KµRå33®c¬«¬®få3«P£»£¡XÂô¦¶ªº«¢þ ¦R¶»¯ ³´£»RÓ3®°«ÂÔ.»®ÂK¡T®RÀ»¨r£c¿¢¡0¸ªå3®Q¬¦£$¶ [¬¡»½l¸ª¼L¦º × r«À × ¦Â¡»r«®ô¡TÂrʬõ¦£/¶ [¬¡»½l¸ª¼L¦º × r«À®f¢þ ¬Ó[£»®¬7¡>¯ ʨr¡»r¶ªc®c»¡»Â × r¬ × ¦Âô¡6«®f¨>£¶»½«¬:Ó3¿Ø¸ ×
ô¦Âô¡6r« × º«D£«À« ûfSr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨>£»h£ 3¨ ª¨rü3®fªÂrü31®¦¬¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£xÓ3¿Ø¸»£¶6¬û1¬SÀ¡wrµr«Àº¶»QSÂr 3ÿ¡6å3Ó1å33®)¯ q««À¿À¡»»å3®¾r¨ô¡®r¨Ó3¡§þ × r´Ùà¾ààà ,¡ªþ ¶6¬1û¬¸ªÓ¬ ®Â»º ×1× ® × rc½RÓ3ª¿À¡i¸ªå3® ¬<÷ir«¢¡6Âô¡6r«Àr®f3® c÷ir«Àr«Àº¯ Ò ¨ X 2X X .<;#;#; X .9<;#;#; 9<; X 2X o~ X ÔÚhÁÅÙhø ½HÏÁÚhÔ¿SÁÍ= ÈhÍ ÍÉ`×bÈhà ÄuÔÚbÁÍÁx½ÔÃ × ÏfÓdÐf¿SÉÅø ¿BÈ`ÅÙhø ½HË ®ÂrÔ3«À¡l¬«¬ÔR¸»£±cÀ3Ó ¬QÙàõ¦R¶»X®fª¨>£S¿À¡i¸ªå3®°¬õ¦£¶$3¬¡6½áÓ3¿Ø¸ ×
ô¦Âô¡6r«Àr®¡>ûKc¬¸ªÓ<Srh[¬¡¤£¶»¨¨rå3® ¨r®Ó3ª¨r®f¡6£«À¡·Â¶ª¡»Âr®À¡õ·¬¨ 5%þ¹X¡6Þ33À®¬®7¬¬7¡6«P£ × »r¿À¡6ªÂrÂô¦« ¯ Ä Ê¦ įЦ ٯЦ ß1¯Ð¦ Õ3¯Ð¦ ç¯Ð¦ 1¯Ð¦ ²¯Ð¦ Ö1¯Ð¦ 1¯Ð¦ ÄLà1¯Ð¦ ÄįЦ ÄٯЦ ÄLß1¯Ð¦ Ä>Õ3¯Ð¦ Äç¯Ð¦ Ä1¯Ð¦ IJ¯Ð¦ ÄLÖ1¯Ð¦ Ä1¯Ð¦ Ùà1¯Ð¦ " b¦«¹¸ªÂr ùX¼¶»«Â x¬«Àrª¡6 3¬«P£«.c¬¡»¡»DSrª¨rÁ31Âr ÄLàààà1û ààà ßààà1û ààà à1û¢ÄLßKÙ h1û hÖ Ö Ùà 1ûK à à1û à KÙ ÕKÖ h1û ÖÄç Ä>Õ& 1ûKÕfç à1û à Kç ßÕfÙ 1û Öà ÄLàKÙÖ1ûKÕfÙ à1û
àÕfç ÙÕKàà1û ÖÄ ²Ùà1û ÙÕ& à1û àßKÙ Ä Öà1û ç7ÕfÙ çàÕ3û¢ÄKÙ à1û àKÙÙ ÄIJ 1û ßç² ßKçÙûKàK² à1û à1Ä ÖKÙß1û ÕßÕ ÙÕf²û àßà à1û à1ÄÄ ç² 1û hß ß Ä²ÙûK1ÄLÖ à1û ààÖ ÕKàß1û Õ Ö ÄÙÄû àÕKà à1û ààKç ÙÖÙû ÕKÙÙ ÖÕ3û ²Ù² à1û ààÕ Ä ²û hKÙ çh1û ßàÖ à1û ààß ÄLßÖ1û ßÖKÙ Õ3Äû çÄ>Õ à1û ààKÙ h1û hÖ Kç Ùh1û à à à1û àà1Ä ²û ÖàÕ Ùà1û ßÕ3Ä à1û àà1Ä ÕK²û Õ KÙ Ä>Õ3û Ùß à1û àà1Ä ßß1û ÙÙß 1ûK K² à1û ààà Ùß1û Ùçh 1ûKK²² à1û ààà Ä 1û Ùh² Õ3û ÖÖÕ à1û ààà ÄÄû hß Kç ß1ûÐÕ3ÄLÖ à1û ààà Ù¯ ß1¯1¡¤£ × «P£¨r¬¡>¯~÷ ÏfÓdÐf¿>ÉÅø
¿XÈ`ÅÓÈhÍ ÍÉ`×bÈhà ÄËhÍdË`Ê`ÆÍdÈ`ÅfË " h b¦ ¦Âr h 1û Ö Ö ÕKhÖ 1û Ö1Äç ßÕKhÙ 1û Öà ÙÕàà1û Ö1Ä Ä Öà1û çÕfÙ ÄÄLh² 1û ßKç² ÖÙß1ûÐÕKßÕ çh² 1û ß ß Õàß1ûÐ&Õ Ö ÙÖKÙûÐÕfÙÙ Ä K²Kû KÙ Ä>ßÖ1û ßÖKÙ h1û hÖ Kç ²û ÖàÕ ÕK²û Õ KÙ ßß1û ÙÙß Ùß1û Ùçh Ä 1û Ùh² ÄÄû hß Kç ²û h² " Ò ¦ £¶$[¬¡»½¾¸ª¼L¦º × «l®R¬Ó[£ª®7¬¡<c£¶Q¡6¼ ×1× ¡¤¬´¼»ª¨rr¬Ó7¸»¬1¯ Tµ¶ªÂrª¨¡S£«À«[¬® ¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6½ ®7£¶ª®fl[¨¡6» × º« ûR£»¶»Â»¨ô¡X¬:®¼«À¡»»Ârr® × º« ¯ Ò ®£¶»®fl[¨¡»Âr»®3 µ¼»»¨r ×
r¡»¼¶ª¡»Âr33®)û 3¬3r³ [£¶»ò¶ªÂr»¨«ô¡ × r7 <«ªº´Â¦ × r¬®7£¶±3¬µR6££[¬® 60%þø£¡rû,c£»RÓ3À® ¦ × r¬®£¶ 3¬µR6££[¬® 30%þø£¡rûÂr [¬¶»c¬Ó3®°Â¦ × rc¬ý÷ir33c¬¶»¬Ó3½ 10%þ g¡ [¨¡i¸ªü3® ®f g¯ ʨr® ¬«¬ÔR¸»£ ÔÚhÁÅ#ÖÒËhÍdÈhÍÁÅÁ¿=Ó:ÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿SÔÅ = X ÈhÍ ÍÉ`×bÈhà ÄÔÚØÁÍÁx½Ôà %4&=(^ × × ÖÒËhÍdÈhÍ:ÁÅÁ¿=Ó~ÏfÓdÐf¿SÉÅø ¿BÈ`ÅÓÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁBÇ Ùà ÖÒËhÍdÈhÍ7Ú`ËhÍÛÅ$Ðfø â¡&ÅÔBÇÁ × × ÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿SÔÅËhÂ$Èhà ÄhË ÔÚhÁÅÅÔÂÌÍÔÅÁÅ#ÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅ = X ÈhÍ ÍÉ`×bÈhÃ
ÄÔÚÁÍÁx½Ôà %=&=(^ c × × ÅÔÂÌÍÔÅÚ`ËhÍÛÅ$Ðfø â¡ ÅÔBÇÁ ÅÔÂÌÍÔÅvÁÅÁ¿SÔÃÝËbÚ`ÈhÂÖÒËh¿>ÛªÊhÈhÂáËÇhÄRÅfÈÇ × × ÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅËhÂ/ÈhÃ Ä Ë ¹µ®f»¨r£S¿À¡0¸ªå1®cS3Ó¬SÙà ¦R¶ª:¬<¦£¶$3¬¡6½¾®7£¶»®fd[¨rô¡6Ârªr®¡#3¬«P£«À¶6¬:·»Âr¶ªü3«Â»¶ª±µK¬¶»£K¡>¯ Ò ®¼«À¡»»Âr®f3« Àh¬¨ñ¦ r«¹¸ªÂrSr«À¦ºîª¨rr¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârªr®f¶»®«« S3Ó3 rµru®¼«¢¡6ªÂrô¡ ª¨>£S«À3 ¯ "qÂrü1«¾¬ ¦£$¶ [¬¡»½h®R¬Ó[£ª®7¬¡ Âô¦r1®ÂrK¡¼»ª¨r>¬Ó7¸ªå3®)û¾Âr ¡6Þ33®7¬:®¬¬¡»«P£ ×
»r¿À¡6ªÂrÂô¦« ®fÀ»¨>£c¿¢¡0¸ªå3®¬q¸ª«3Âr¶§¡6Âr®fü3®¡r¯ ô ³ Àr«Àº¡»¡U¡6L¦£ ×3× ÂÔ3¿À¡»r3Â3®:SÓ1r««Àü33®¡>û¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£UÓ3¿â¸»£¶»¬¦[¬¡»®¨½°µR®Qr«¢¦£¶6£ªå33® ¬«P¬ÔR¸»£þ ¦¬µÀrû3µ´¬cà1¯Ó3ºÔ1««¬[¬¡ × ¬ ¸ ¬S¦£¶$3¬¡6½á¸ª¼¦º × r«m®fP¬Ó[£»®<¸ª«3Âr¶§¡6Âr®¹ ¸ ¬ ¦£/¶ [¬¡»½t¸ª¼¦º × r« × ô¦Â¡»r«Àr®¸ª«r1Âr¶ª¡»Âr® ¹ ≤ à þ¤ûKc£¶ASrá¡6å1Ó3å33®v3¬¡¤£¶ª¨r11rµ ®¼¶ªü3« × r«Àü3«Hû SÂrá1r¦Âr«ÀrlÓ1¿â¸»¬¡rY¯ YÞr«
ª«À¦r¶Êªr¿¢¡6»Â¦r«)®fª¨>£S¿À¡ª¦¬q¬¨XrÓ3Ó1 20000F tþ¹¶»¬ý£«À«¿À¡»¡»¡ Ó1¿â¸x«rÞ»¼®f®r 13110F tþ¹¶6¬¯ óáÀ»¨>£c¿¢%¡ [¬¡»½K¬®k¬¨rµ ¦r ¦£$¶ 3¬¡6½¶»rÓ1cÂfµr®ÀrûXS3Ó1rµÂô¦R¶» ¸ ¬¨ ¬Ó3¡»¡ Âô¦R ¦£/¶ [¬¡»½<®fP¬Ó[£»® ¹ ¸ ¬¨á¬Ó3¡ª¡xÂô¦ ¦£$¶ [¬7¡6½ × ¦Â¡6«&® ¹6¯ ¼¡6¼cr««Àr3º¶»¨3)l¡6å3Ó7¸ªå1® Òû 3µ ¬¨´rÓ1Ó3ÃSrh [¬¡¤£¶»¨¡»¡SÓ3¿Ø¸¾¡6ÂfµR«ÀrSr÷i«r«Àºþ¹ûwå3µK¬3À ¬¨¼»ª¨rrµY¦r¶»rÓ1cÂfµ ¼»»¨rÂ3r®
¬K¬¨rÓ[¬»£U¡¤¬¶§¡¤¬«ÀÂr®à1¯±ÀÓ3ºÔ K¡ × r«À,¶ª¡6®Âô¦r«l®««bSrrµr¨r1ûm¬c,c§¡Qà1û ¬¨Q¼»ª¨rrc·à1û¦¬µR·¬¾Ó3¿â¸wSr÷i«r«Àº3¯ [«¢µf¡¤¬ª»å3®¬ SÓ1r«« ÷ir«ÀÂrÔ3¿¢¡6ÂrªÂ¡¬ ¦Â«r·Ó3¿Ø¸XSr 3¬¡¤£¶ª¨>£6h£ 3¨¯ B£ ¤£ [ X õ ¬¶»c¬Ó3À®«ÀÂrÔ Âr × rYSr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨r¨å3®Ã¬ ®7£¶ª®Rd[¨rô¡6»r® 99.5%þ¹ ®K¦¬K¡6À«À»Â¡fS3Ó1r i ª¨r¶»¨rºRÓ3 ®fl[¨¡6»À¡¬ ÷iø¸ª¨r¡ r«¹¸ªÂrFcK¬Ó3¡ª¡ X ¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Âr·¦£«¢¡6¨½SRÓ3r«À«r¨ ¯ Ò
¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂrl¦£«À¡6¨r½3® 11 ¶ª¡»Âr®ô¡¾¦f 1¡¾÷ir«w¬ cK¬Ó3¡ª¡:¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Âr®f®r« ¯Ã³1Ó3rk¦ «¹¸ªÂrh¬Ã»¨r¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârª»¨>£c[¬®c÷ir«Àr«ÀºÓ[¬¶6¬ × ª¨>£:æ «Àµr ¡»¿Ô3å1»æ¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Âõ¦£«¢¡6¨½3® ¦¬D¯ Ò ¶»¶»¬¦¬µå13® ®f¿À¦£3Þ»¬®´S3Ó1r ¦R¶»:û 1µ ¬¨¾¼ª»¨r°»¨r¶»¨ºÓ3»¶ª3¨¦SSr®f®¶»¬ i ,SsLS?[CRI/3I/L4L4w`FE*F2/P<MQ`QR5KI/FQI/COHEL/iREHP<WO5?BEA=?XEJ24FC`EF 1 ÙÄ ¬¨±¬¨á¼»ª¨rr1û Sr«¢µR3Âr«3¬µ ×3×
¼ª»¨®Rd[¨rô¡6¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»ÂQ«÷ir«Ø¸ª ×3× 0.5% û1¦¬µÀ ¦ Y99.5% = max {Y |P (Y ≥ Y ¦ ) ≤ 0.5%} , ¬ 3« ¬¨cÂrª¨ £«À«c£KµR¶6¬ ¦3¬¡6®¨r½ ®7£¶ª®fl[¨¡6Â<¬Ó1¡»¡°Â¦R¶ª¯ù,H[£¡:cÀ3Ó3r ¦R¶ª ¬þ Y KµRÊå3µ¬3«¢µK¬ X ¦£«¢¡6¨½ ®K¦«å3Þ½7¸»£7¡á®««bSr 3¬¡¤£¶ª¨rfå31® û%Âár¨r® ¬«¬ÔR¸»£ ¬ ®f¦¬Rþ ¡»«Àª¡c®fª¨>£S«få31® ûõ¬Sr3KµRýª¨rr¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârªü33®h¦ r«Àø¸ªÂrhSÂr«¡ × ¦¬¯ Ò ®K¦«Àå3ÞrÀ½ ª¨>£S¿À¡6£6£ 3¨Xrµ<
Þr«)¬®R¶ª½¡T¿¶ª®)ûKÂrTr¨·ª¨>£S¿À¡i¸»¬q®f[cÀ3Ó¾¬:Ùàý¦R¶»õ¬á®Rd[¨rô¡6»r® 99.5%þ ®K¦¬K¡6À«À»r¢¡>Y¯ T¨r®¡á¬¨áÂr¶ª¡»Âr®r®ô¡á)¬ Ù¯ÐÕ t¡6£ × «P£¨>¬¡x¡6¬¶ª¡6¬«c¬¨¨>¬1¯ i õ«À¡6¬«P£1»»£ × ¬¬c¡»º®»¨rü1®RªÂr«À¡á÷i¹¸ªr¨rU®fb¬1[¬®¬cÔ Âr3¨c3KµR»Â3® ¬¨±Âr¶ª¡»Âr®Â¡>û¬c«¢þ «¢µ«m¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡6½[¬®¶»3Ó3«®¨r3À±®r«À«,¬ Ó3¿Ø¸ × ô¦Âô¡6r«Àr®r Âõ®7¬c¬¡6®÷ir«Àü3« ûÒ3µ®f¬Ó[£»¬À¡ ÷iÓ3r¨3%¡6å3Ó¸»¬1¯l³RÓ3r«À«ü33® ×
r®Âô¡»÷iÂr«Àá¡6º®r»¨ü3®f»Â«ô¡6¡q»¨r£c«å33® ËÐÙ&Ë`ÅfÈÇhÓ¿SÀÊ&ÁÅ$ÐfÌ&ÊÅÔBÇhÍÁ¿ S®fª¨>£S¿À¡i¸ªå3®)û 3µ Sr®f®¶6¬¬¨S¬ ¡6º®r[¬µR6£3û,¬SÀ¡ý¬¨S¬ × ¨ôþ ¡»»¿¢¡6½3¬® S3Ó3rµrqÂô¦ × 3¨¨>£S®r«À«¡633±¬¾c«Âô¦º ¡6º®Âø¸ªH 3r¨û 3µ¬S®fd[¨rô¡6Ârªr¢¡ S1Ó3r¦ × rû ¬ «¶»»»¨r¬ ×3× ¬®¬7¡X÷ir«À¡»Â¡»r«¨¦°ÀX¡6r«Ø¸ªrª¿À¡63D¡»å3Ó7¸»¬1¯l³À3Ó3Âô¦¶ª°¬Ò ~ § ¨ Ç&ËÐÙ&Ë`ÅfÈÇhÓY¿>ÀÊ&ÁÅ$ÐfÌ ÊÅÔBÇhÍÁ¿ = ×bË! {0, Y99.5% + Ê&Î`Íá¿ ÅÔBÇÁÊËÐbÁBÇÔÅ$ÐvÈhÍ
ÍÉ`×bÈhà Ä`Â/Ë − Ùhø ½HÏÁÚhÔ¿SÁÍÁÊ }. F»ô¡6Ârörµ rµª¨r¶»Á3ª¿À¡6»ªr« Âr«Àü33® ¬¦¬«À½6£ × ¬ ª¨>£S«¢¡%3¨ ®ÂrÔ r§¡l«rµr¬¨Qr«À»º¾Â¦ × r´à1û[¬ £»RÓ3®c¦f¡6º«%®r¨Ó1¦±Ô.Ó3 gÎ`ÂÚhÔà Ä`Ó¦¿SÀÊ&ÁÅ$ÐfÌ&ÊÅÔBÇhÍÁ¿ ª ¿>Î`ÂÚhÔà ÄÓ ¿>ÀÊ&ÁÅ$ÐfÌ ÊÅÔBÇhÍÁ¿ = ×bË! {0.18 × 0.28 × ÁÍÀfÐ`ÀÔÚÓ Ùhø ½HÏÁÚhÔ¿SÁÍ , ÁÍÀfÐ`ÀÔÚhÁÊÈh¿=ÍdËÇÉÅ#ÊhÈhÂ%«ÁÍÖÒË`Å$ÐfáÈhÍdÈ`ÅfË }. Òh× À¨¡»»¿¢¡6½°¬Q¦£¶/[¬¡»½°®fd[¨rô¡6ÂrªrÀc¡6æ1«[rµ¾æ3D¯Ê&É ÊhÈÐËh¿<Ó
¿>ÎhÏÏfÍÁ¿ø¡tʪ¨>£S¿À¡rûf¬¶»¶»¬±¬¨·»¡»¶»û 3¬cSÂrªr «33°r«Àr3Ó3ºc¬c®fl[¨¡»Âr»®f¶»<Sr®ÂrÔ3¨¡ª¡õ¡»º®{ ¯ T13r®SÂr¶ª¡»Âr®<¬¨Qr«Àº¨rºS®Âô¡ ¡»º®»¨ü3®f»Âr«¡qR¬ 1À<å3c£[¬® 2.5%þ¹¬1¯ Ò ®Þ¤®7£¨r¬¡6¡»¼ ×3× «À¡6® × º«D®RÀ»¨r£c¿¢%¡ [¬7¡6½¾Ø¬ Ê&É ÊhÈÐËh¿<ÓY¿XËh¿BËhÍÔÊ[¬µ»£KÒ¬ ÊS1Ó3r¦ r«¹¸ªÂr¶ª ¬ ¬ $ ¢G5K3HI4J i5|P=L/FfABIS?B5KL$WJK?<£RF{EF5L4IS?B2/P=?pTiI/JKJI4L/M3EJZHP<L4UC!)`P<24O53WJK?<TL/ZCRFE?/}I4p5|E?=? EL -4PBEFI4OH2/P<L Y ®(¯ °!±²%³´µ 24A<?<24FHI4FHIS?
3I/rRIS?/I/Jl}ÒI4L/24A<?CRI4pþQR5LS?<TfP4}+rRTOHDNI4OHDI/CRJKMfP=2/O?BI4J kxI/P<wRJ}Ep5KFHTA E ^(THPYF3ECf?<5JK5|P=?FI4ABI/PBP<wRF } 99.5% I4L42/A=? I/CROI$i%kxwRFpI/O`}rRTHOD JI4ODHI4C#E*3%EJKZfP=L/UKC!)`P<24O1 ≤ 0.5% ÙÙ b¦ öýª»¨r®7£¶ª®fl[¨¡6»® 99.5%þ¹X®K¦¬K¡6À«ª įЦ Ù×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ٯЦ çß¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ß1¯Ð¦ ßh¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Õ3¯Ð¦ ßÙ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ç¯Ð¦ Ù²×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ 1¯Ð¦ Ù7Õþ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ²¯Ð¦ ÙÙ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ö1¯Ð¦ Ùà¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ 1¯Ð¦ ÄL²×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄL௠Âô¦ ÄLç×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Äį Âô¦ Ä>ß¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄÙR¯ Âô¦ ÄÄ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄL߯ Âô¦ Ä>à¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿
Ä>Õ1¯ Âô¦ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄçR¯ Âô¦ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ į Âô¦ Ö ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ IJR¯ Âô¦ ²Þ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄLÖ¯ Âô¦ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ į Âô¦ çÞ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ù௠Âô¦ Õ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ù¯ÐÕ3¯1¡6£ × «P£¨>¬¡r¯÷ ÔÚhÁÅvÎÅÅ$ÐÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅÁÊ 99.5% Õ$ÉÅ#Ê`Ú`Ëhà ¿<Ó ÍáÓÅÁÓ " I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ¬ª[£7¡6¶6¬«¦º¾Â¦®®RÞ¤®£¨>¬¡»¡6¼ ×3× «¡»r¸ª«r1Âr¶ª¡»Âr®r1r®¼ª»¨r¯ Ò Ç&ËÐÙ&Ë`ÅfÈÇhÓÁÂÁ$Ùh×ØÔÃ Ä ¸ Ó3¿â¸ × ¦Â¡»r«® ¹qþ ¸ ®f¬Ó[£ª® ¹qþ ¸ ®Þ¤®7£¨r¬¡6¡»¼ ×3× «À¡4¹¤¯ Ò ¨ ÎÅÅ$Ð`ÁÅø
¿SÁ¿=¿ÁÂÁ$Ùh×ØÔà ÄîS3Ó1r Âô¦¶ªh ¬ [£¡6¶»¬«ô¦º Âô¦r®ÿK¬¨rÓ3¬6£´r¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµrc¸ªôþ «Àr3¶ª¡»Âr®3®¼»ª¨r¯ Ê«ÀÂr¶»®r¨ô¡6ü33®Yh¬ Ò3¨¬ Ô K%¡ 3¨ûx¬ 3«·¬ ¦Âr«rr × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£»XÓ3¿Ø¸»¬¡¾c ¡6å3Ó7¸ªå1 ® [¬¡¤£¶»¨3B ¬¨<¼»ª¨r»¿À¡»¡ª¡ár¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµR3r® ¬ à1¯ýÀÓ3ºÔ3À««P¬[¬¡ × ¬Rå1««P£[¬®®««,«r13G¯ ʨ<cª¡ýSÂr3r ¨ Ùß ¡»r«Ø¸ªr»ü1« û3µ«º¶ª°SÂr¾3K¬¡»¿À¦ ¯Y1Þr«m»«À¦¶·»r¿À¡6ªÂrÂô¦«m¦RÀ»¨rf¡®¼3Kµ
få3««£L¦£:¡»f3ô¡6º3¯ ô¹µ¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£x¦Âr»ºSÓ3¿â¸»Ò¬ KÑÃÅ Å Ò HÙ¯ÀÄ x£ × ¶6¬<¡6¬¶ª¡6¬«c¬¨r¨r¬:r¨rÓ3¿â¸xc««À¡»¡x¬¨QrÓ3Ó1¾®f»¨r£S«À¡6¬®7¬¡>¯ ·¶¢¸ e ¹ ëð*ì[åîKUì9íîºf»U¼C7ò m£¡$[¬¡i¸ªå3®)û3µ¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª Ó3¿â¸Sr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨>£»¬ ¸ ¦À»ª¨>¬÷i«Â¹ ¡6¼¶§¡6Âr1®)¯ óá¨rÓ3ô¡ × r Sr¬Ó3å33®µ ¸ ¡»¡6ª¨rº«Àr4¹ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªXÓ3¿â¸»¬7¡>ûx¬c¢¦r«x÷i«ÂÔ3¿À¡i¸ªü3®ÃSÓ3««Àü33®ô¡>ût¬¸ªÓY®Âô¡ «ÀÂrÔ Âr × Þr«)»«¢¦¶tªr¿¢¡6»Â¦r« c [¬¡6£¶»¨r¨rå1®
¬¨·Ô1¡»c£«Àrû÷ir«À¡»Â¡»r«®ô¡t¡»r«â¸ª»¿¢¡6ºQÓ3¿â¸»¬7¡>¯ Ò ®Â¡·¡6«â¸ªrª¿À¡»r3Ó3º ÷i«À¡6Âô¡6B« þ Ò à1¯îÓ3ºÔ3«À«P¬[¬7¡ × ¬ ¸ ¬Ã¦£$¶ 3¬¡6½´¸ª¼L¦º × r«Àý®fP¬Ó3£»® ¸ªr«3Âr¶§¡6® ¹ ¸ ¬¦£/¶ [¬¡»½ ¸ª¼L¦º × « × ¦Â¡»r«®±¸ªr«Àr3¶ª¡6® ¹ ≤ à1û3 þ Ò ¨Q¼ª»¨r»¿¢¡6¡ª¡r¶»Ó3SÂrKµ¬¾à1¯TÓ3ºÔ1««¬[¬¡ × ¬ ≥ à1¯ ʨr®¬«¬ÔR¸»£rµø¸§¡»º¶»Kµº¨Ârª¶»Q¦[¬7¡6®¨r½ R¡6¶»Â »Ô ¶ª¡ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£XÓ1¿â¸»¬ 14225F t. ½£ ³ ª¡bµ°£»RÓ3®)û7¶»Ârª¨ ×
rª[¬»3«À½qS½Ó1±À,Srh[¬¡¤£¶»¨¨rå3®°¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£mÓ3¿Ø¸»£¡>¯:ÊÓ3Ó3À å1µK¬1áSÂr3rý[¬»¨[£«¢¡6å3®®RHû 3µ [¬«£«¨r£» þxÂQ»Âr¶ªü3«Â᦬«½ª¨r¿fÁ3ªÂr3®¡QK¬cc¬7þ «ª¨r«£»æ<¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Âf¦£«À¡6¨r½®Q¦£$¶ [¬7¡6½ý¶ª¡6® × º«¡»¶6¬3ª¨÷i¶ª£«À¡6å1® :¯ ʨ¡ [µr«Àr × w¦Â¦û µçà ¨r¶»õª¨rÀ<å3«P£Þr½L¦¬¾« [¬¡¤£¶»¨¨rå3® SrS¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£xÓ3¿Ø¸»£¡>¯ ÊS«Â®r¨ô¡6ô¡6ºü3<« þ ¦«b¸ª«¼«¢¡6ü3®Ãâ ¬
[¬«£«¨>£ªw¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Ârr®ô¡ «ºK£«À«¿¢¡6½´¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»ÂX¦£«¢þ θ ¡»¨r½®¬7¡>ûA ξ þ ¦r«t¬´»Â¶»ü3«ÀÂr»l¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Âr¡<«ºK£««¿¢¡6½3û%¬cc¬7þ r«»¨r«£»æ ¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂrT¦£«¢þ ¡»¨r½®¬7¡>¯ R¨r:å3«P£Þ½1®c«ÀÂrÔ Âr»BÊS3Ó1rrµrõ»¨<å3«£ÞrÀ½ × ¬ į ¸ ®fª¶»ª«å31&® ¹ θ Âr ξ þ¹®ô¡>û Ù¯·r¨r® × º«Dr«º£««À¿À¡0¸ªå1® ¬:3®RÀ®Sr÷i««º 3¬«P£«)ÂX»Âr¶ªü3«Âx¦¬«½ª¨r¿ÀRÁ1»Ârr®ô¡¬:c£¶wÀ»Sr¶ª¡ ¡6¶6¬3»¨ô÷i¶»c£ÞrÀ½L¦¬« û
ß1¯·¬¸ªÓ±r¨r®ô~¡ [¬»¨[£«¢¦¬ ¸ ®fª¶»ª«å13® ¹l®3®f¶ªÂ¡ [¬«£«KÂrA»Âr¶ªü3«Â»ª¨>£S®7¬¡bS1Ó3r<µ ¦R¶»û.¬cÀ® × º«D¬¨Q¬Ó3¡ª¡·Â¦Rm®7£¶»®fl3¨r¡»Ârªr®ô¡qSr ¡»å3Ó7¸ªå3u® [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨r3H¯ i i i i ÙÕ Ê¨ô¡õ«À¦Âr¨r¨rü1®´çྨr¶»»¨r¶¯ "qÂrü1« ¬¨kçàFr¨r¶ r¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµf¡ ¦r3®ÂrK¡ª¶ × ¬¶»3Ó3r¨ô¦Yc [¬¡6£¶»¨r¨rå1®^¬®7£¶ª®Rd[¨rô¡6»r® Âô¦3®Âf¡» 99.5%þ¹±®K¦¬K¡6À«ªÂ¡QþHÙ¯ çhá¡6£ × «P£¨>¬¡§þ¤ûASr«¢µô¡ × r¿¶§¦¬´¬¨ «º¨º´SÓ1r««T®K¦¬K¡6À«¢þ
ªrÀ3r® 3«ÀµÂ × û1Âx¬Q¼»ª¨rrª¿À¡»¡»¡xr¶»Ó3SÂrKµf¡x«K¬«£ ×3× à7þ¹¶»¬±£««¿¢¡»¦¬ 0 Þrr« »«À¦¶wªr¿¢¡6»Â¦r(« Sr®¬ÔR¸ªå3®)¾û 1µ¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£Ó3¿â¸»¬ KÑuÅ3Ñ Ê¨r Ó3¿â¸Xc««À¡»¡õ¬¨°r¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµr®ô¡±¬ ÙR¯ Ù £ × ¶6¬<¡¤¬¶ª¡¤¬«c¬¨r¨r¬1¯ b¦ öýª»¨r®7£¶ª®fl[¨¡6»® 99.5%þ¹X®K¦¬K¡6À«ª įЦ ²Ö¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ٯЦ ç¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ß1¯Ð¦ ÕKç×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Õ3¯Ð¦ ßß¨×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ç¯Ð¦ Ù²×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ 1¯Ð¦ ÙRÄ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ²¯Ð¦ ÄLç×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ö1¯Ð¦ ÄLÙ×ªÓ Í
ÍáÓBÛ ¿ 1¯Ð¦ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄL௠Âô¦ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Äį Âô¦ ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄÙR¯ Âô¦ ß ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄL߯ Âô¦ ß ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ä>Õ1¯ Âô¦ ß ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄçR¯ Âô¦ ß ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ä ¯ Âô¦ à ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ IJR¯ Âô¦ à ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ ÄLÖ¯ Âô¦ à ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ä ¯ Âô¦ à ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ù௠Âô¦ à ×ªÓ Í ÍáÓBÛ ¿ Ù¯ ç¯1¡6£ × «P£¨>¬¡r¯÷ ÔÚhÁÅvÎÅÅ$ÐÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅÁÊ 99.5% Õ$ÉÅ#Ê`Ú`Ëhà ¿<Ó ÍáÓÅÁÓ 6¸ " I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Ùç Ùh ÙR¯Àį3£ × ¶6¬¯ ¿<Õ$ÉÅÙhø ½G×ØÁÍ ÍÁ¿<¿*ËÐÁÂ%Á$Ùh×ØÔÃ Ä 95¾#¾<¿ Ù² ÙR¯ Ù¯3£ × ¶6¬¯
¿<Õ$ÉÅÙhø ½G×ØÁÍ ÍÁ¿<¿*ËÐÁÂ%Á$Ùh×ØÔÃ Ä 95:9¾50 À ~ Fkk ±³² % k % Á à!Y! ÅÄ 3× × r¬ ÷iø¸ª¨rô¡ × r rµF«ÀµK¬ S½Ó3ª¨r¶ª¡c»¨r¶»ô¡63® × r<å1¡6¬¡61 ûwSr«¢µ3cÞ6¬®YcK¬Ó7¸»¬ µ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£»b¡»r¶»SÂr® £¶6£¡rû,Ó3S®¼¨ × rc¬`c¬«À¨>£«Ø¸»¬c¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6½®[¬»¨r1»»£K£¡r¯ tr<åþ ¡6¬¡0¸ªå1®¬¡6º®rÔ1P¬ÞýcRÓ3««À¡rûXr¨ô¡®[¬»3«¿¢¡0¸ªå3®Y¼»ª¨r ¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»õÔ3P¬ÞrqSRÓ3r«À«r«H¯Ê33r® ª¶6£ «P£7%¡ [¬¡i¸ªå3®Ãc¬¸ªÓû 3µS¿ ¬
¡6º®rÔ3¬Þr·SÓ1r««t¡6r«Ø¸ªrûxå3µ¬3r¨3r S3ÓÒ[¬¡6½ r« ¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£»mÔ3¬Þr¶ª½« û[å3µK¬3Àý¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£ × ¬r«Àº÷i¶ªÓ3å3«½S®7£¶»»cÂfµr®3r ÷ir«Àr«¢¡6$¡ 3¡»º® Sr:»rSS«Àµr «ÀµK¬ rª¨r®¼¨r3® û)Sr«¢µr®f®r«%¬±¡»º®Ô3P¬Þr®r¶»»®rÓ 3ô¡6ü31® ¯ Ò ¡6«â¸ªrª»Â À¡»¡ ¡»å3«P¬L¸ªÓ33®ÂrÔ3Ô r¬ ¸ ®RÀ»¨r£c¿¢%¡ [¬7¡¤¬«¬36£3û × ¨rfµf¡6¬«P¬16£ ¹3P£fµ£¡¸ªr«ÀrK¡6H¯Ê³¿À°µ¾®¼¡»¦ÂKµ «ô¡6 ¸ «º¶ªýc [¬¡6£¶»¨r¡ª/¡ ¹¤ûrµ ×
¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£»[¬®c3r ¡6å3Ó 3¬¡0¸ªå3® ¬ý¸ª¼L¦º × «®fSr1¡6«Âô¡>¯ Ò× r<塤¬¡6£»[£«%®¬ ¢ÄRç mÞr®f®¡®¼L¦ô¡»¡»r¯ ½h ìFEóé¤gëHò@Æ*ëõç e ·¼¨¿À¡»»ü3® ¬¨ [ ¸ A1 , ., AL ¦ ¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Â[c¨rº¡rûÂl¡»r®fK¡»»ü3®S¬ B «Àr¿À¶»½ σþø¬« × ¶6£>¦¬«[¬ª»¨ÞP£«¢¡ [«¢¡6¶»£ÞrÀ½¡>¯ Ê®f®¶õ¬¨ ¿>ÀÊ&Á ¡Ó=Ë Óg×ØÉfÙÁÍ Í 3r¨w¸ªå1¡»å33®)¯ (M, F ) (Ω, B, P ) F = (Ft )t=0,.,T [ RNLK.R åÇf®é!ññ ÷Â%Î$ÇÐfø ¿>Á¿<¿ È (M, F ) ¿SÀÊ&ÁÈ¡Ó=Ë<¬É`ÃÍÔ¿>Á$ÐfÓÊ <¬ L Ù&ËhÂ/Ë&ÏÑ
ÑËhתÓÊÊ&Á;Ê&ÁÂ%ÁÅÊ&Á$ÙhÌÃÒÊ3*÷ÊÈ¡Ó=Ë<¬É`à ×bÈ`ŪÁÅ$ÐÊ&ÎfÐÃ Ó ÃD¬Å3 F Õ4Ë&Ù&ËTÈ¡¿BÈhÍá¿ÉÈ ÔÃÐfÌ ÇhÄ`ÓYÁÅ$ÐÊ&ÎfÐÑ Êµ A Ô Âr3¨ü3µRmrª¨r®¼¨¡>û j = 1, .L û[®Âô¡Ô¨À¡»¿À¦S÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡X®7¬¶6¬®K¡»r¶»À¨>£«< Èh É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿ Âr • = (q : t = 0, ., T ), j %« oË j • j,t ½Æ+¿BËhÍÔÊ`ÕBÊ`Ó :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅÓ0«É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿oÌ j = (Dj,t : t = 0, ., T ) ÙÖ Ò ý¨ £¶§÷i«Àµ¬c¬¡Tc [¬¡6£¶»¨r¨>¬û1µc¬¨r»¨®¼¨Q¬¨q¬Ó1¡»¡tÔ3«À«P¬3¬¡ × ¬SSr1fµR¢¡w¶rû¬X¸ªå1¡6¬«Â®Kþ ®fd[¨rô¡6ÂrªU÷i«ÀµK¬¬¡·Ô rÓ1ScK¬Ó7¸»¬1û
1µ¬¨°rµrõÔ3«À«P¬[¬7¡6® × ¬Sr1fµR¢¡[¨¡q¬¨°r»¨®¼¨¯ UÂr«ÀÓ[£å3«ýµFr«cõ®¼¡ª¦Âfµh»ô¡6Âr ¬¸ªå1¡6¬«Â®Kþ ®fl[¨¡6»÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡¬Ã«¹¸»£¶6¬7¡6®¶ ¬Ã®¼¡»¦ÂKµ 1¦¶ª¡»Âr®û¬<¡6¼ ×3× %Ô3À««P¬[¬¡ × ¬ à1¯ ʵ Õ4Ë&Ù&Ë ¡¿BÈhÍá¿ É`¿ Û`ÍáÓBÛvÊ&ÁÂ%ÁÅÊ&Á$ÙÔÅÓ:Å¿=Â/Ëh¿SÔBÇhÓ=Ëcµ Ó3Sr3¨½ F þø¬Ó[¬Ô1¡6£«À¡ F L Ç = (Ç , ., Ç ) ÷i«ÀµK¬¬¡rûh¬ 1« Ç = (x , ., x , 0) Ò ¨ A »¨®¼¨ × º«T¬ (t, t + 1) ÀK¡6r¶§¦¬««Àå3 × ¬ × ¶øþ ¡»®«À¡°¶»Â»¨¦ÂrKµ®ª¨>£c£¡ x ¸ª«¼«À ¯ Ò T.
Ó3ºÔK¡ × ¬ £¶á1rí÷ir®K¡»¡6ü13® × ûAr¨ô¡·¸ª«¨ û 1µ¬¨ Ç å1¡6«À»½ ®cÔ 33» 0. Å ,Í Û Ì ÷Ð É`¿ Û`ÍáÓBÛvÊ&ÁÂ%ÁÅÊ&Á$ÙÔÅÓ:Å¿=Â$Ëh¿>ÔBÇhÓ=ËÈhÍá¿BËhÍ¡ÇÁÃÁÂ/ÈhÍá¿ {½Æ+¿BËhÍÔÊ É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿ $ TÈ ÍÈ Î« 1 j j,0 j,T −1 L j j,t j Ì #ÏRÐ (Ñ @ÒÓÈ Dx,t = Ϋ L X j=1 ÔÅ ùUå3«¬¸ªÓ33®ÂrÔ3Ô r × ÷i®K¡6¡»Ârªrd¹6¯ Dx,t ¬ ÔÖÕ (Dj,t + qj,t )xj,t−1 − Dx,0 = − ¸t−1 L X L X qj,t xj,t , ÖÒË « t = 1, ., T, j=1 ÖÒË qj,0 xj,0 , t = 0. þ × « × ÷i®K¡6¡»Ârªr®hr¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµ tþ × r¹ ¬ ¸ tþ × r«õÓ3º»¨>¬® j=1 ½£ sÍØuvrnkÉnw × Êµ F þ¹¬Ó[¬Ô1¡6£«À¡ Þû [¬
Ù S1Ó3r = (Mt )t=0,.,T ÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡6¡ÙÁ Èh¿SÉ`Â7[¬®3¦r¨rü13® ¬¨ ¼Ú Mt qj,t = E [ Mt+1 (qj,t+1 + Dj,t+1 )| Ft ] , j = 1, ., L RNLK.R ¸ ÍÔ¿>Á$ÐfÓÊÁBÇhÄHÛ ÷Ð Âr t = 0, ., T − 1þ ¶»¯ (M, F ) (M, F ) ¡»º®Ô3P¬þ §Ä R ¿>ÀÊ&ÁÈ¡Ó=Ë<¬{¿>ÁÍ ½ÁÅGÔÅËhÂHÏfÓ ¿<Â/ÈÐÅÕ>×ØÁà ¿>ÁÅÑgÁÊÊ&É`Â{Æ ÇhÄhËhà ÓÅ#ÁBÇhÄ&ÔÁ¿SÁÍá×H¡ Áà = (Mt )t=0,.,T ÙÁ¼ÚÈh¿SÉ`Â%Ñ~×ØÁÍáÄvÊ`ÓBÁÍÔBÇhø ¿<Ó ËÐù 9 üÙÁ¼Ã ø¬ÓBÛ`¿3 Ùh Ýiq8Þßuot q pàsKtm=ukrváop<âDnop<pruo{ßzKpãnä.v0q8Þßuot q páå7no{æooprâ·v0uop Ü ùUrµü1® ÷i« û93µ Ô Âr3¨ü3µRt¦£«À«P¬«¬¡6å31®´rµ F
þø¬Ó[¬Ô1¡6£«À¡w¸»£¶»¬Ó3®¡±®7¬Ô¯ r«À¼«â¸ª¾r¨ô¡ = ¯ ,Â3¨rü1µR)¦£«À«P¬«¬¡U¶»Âô¦ÂrSr¨rc¬ýÔ.Â3¨r¾r»¨®¼¨¼®ô¡w¦£»£¶»«Àå33®)ûÂÊ®r¶ªrª®rÓ1ü33® (w ) ¦r«Àü3®¬S¡»º®Ô3P¬Þ~¯ "ᣫ¬»¨ô¡6å33®µ Ç Ô ¶§¡»÷i½«À½<®r¶»»®rÓ3»ʪ¡»¶6¬¡»Âr£¡>û1Ârõ¬ × ÷ir®K¡»¡6»® ¶»Ó3cÂKµr¢¡qS1Ó ¸ r«¢÷iµ¬»¨ô¡0¸ªå3® ¹¤¯ ʨô¡õ1¦¨r¨ü3® É$ÇhÄ Ë`Å$Ðf¿BÈ`ÅÓ É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿=áË`Ê7¯ Û = Û ( , Ç ) = Û (0, 0, , Ç ) = (c ) = + . "l¬µRrû ¬ Û ÷iµK¬ª¨¡6£»
÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡¬Y¸»£¶6¬Ó3Âr®K÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡ÃÂk¬F¸ªå1¡¤¬«ÀÂr®þ¹®fd[¨rô¡6Ârªc÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡ ¼»»¨r®Âf¡¿À$¶ [¬7¡6½ ÷ir« ¯u³À¦« x = 0 ûx¨rÂr¶§¡¬ T þ × «x÷iµK¬ª¨¡¤£Srµ¨r®k¬ ¦Â»º ¦¬µ33¬« ¯ Ò Ô3¬Þr¦¬«½S®¶»»®Ó3Ârª»«T¬S¦£««¬«P¬7¡6®¾Þr«⸻¬SÔ3¶»h 1¡0¸ªå3®c`¬ c¬«À¨>£«£6¬¯bù,®fK¡6ªü33®rµ ¶ªÂrª¨¦ÂKµr§¡>û«Àrµr¬¨Qº [¬»¨3ª6£÷iü1¦ÂKµ c > 0þ¹¶»¬ ¬S®¼L¦¡»®¨rº " # " # " # X X X c Ù Û U( ) = E u (t, c ) = E e u(c ) = E e , 1−γ ¬ 3«
¸ª«¼«À¬¶»Ârª¨¦ÂrKµÊ®RÞ¤®£¨>¬¡»®r¶ªü3«Â»rµRü1¡ª%¡ [¬¡»½7¸»£¡ª¡>û ρ Ô.Ó3õ¬X¡6ü3¶ªr«S¡»«3»Â¡r¯ γ>0 Ñm ,Í Û Ì ÁBÇhÄ&Áà = (w ) ÁBÇhÄyÂÔÅ$ÐfÚhÔà Ä&ÁŽHÈhÂ$Ë&ÙÔÊhË`Ñ c( ) = (0, 0, , ) = ½ç Zè $ t t=0,.,T H« è É« è è Ì»é t t=0,.,T j,T T T ρ,γ t t=0 Ì ë #ÏRÐ ÔÖÕ + (Ñ Bê >0 È t −ρt −ρt t t=0 1−γ t t=0 ìë ë í t t=0,.,T « #3 ë Ò Á$ÙhÓdǪËî«É$ÇhÄ Ë`Å$Ðf¿BÈ`ÅÓ É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿XË ¼~ÊÊ&É`ÂËvÂ%ÔÅ$ÐfÚhÔÃ Ä ÁÅ!ÖÒË`Å$ÐfÃÉÅÅfÈÇh×bË! Ó ×bËhÍáÓdÐÈ<¬ÓBÛÅ ¡Â%ÉhÏfÍÔ×bÈ/½HË#¨ È ë Rà ¶ ï e ¹ ë Ò ë Õ Õ U max ( ) = max U ( í (0, 0, , )) = max U( + U max ÔÖÕ ).
Å$ÐfÓdÇÉ`ÂTðÒËhÃÃÎ`ÚhÀuÔÅ#Ê&É`ÃÒÊhÈhÚ¿3 ëð*ì[åîKUì9íî ëág®ëHò2Æëç åÇfué!ñHñ Ò ¨ rÓ3Ó3À®f®r«á««ÀrK¡6Âô¡ × ru¬ÏfÓdÐf¿SÉÅø ¿BÈ`ÅÓ ¡Ó=Ë ´3r ¡»r«Ø¸ªrrûõå3µ¬3¨r ¬Ô3P¬ÞrhSrþ ¸ª«33r®Y¬ ¦Âr«À¡»«rK¡»º«X÷iü3ºr»cÂKµr®)¯þT¨Âr¶§¡ 3 r«Â3ûX¬SÀ¡¾Ó3Ó3À¡6å1Ó3å33®)ûXå3µ¬3À ¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£ × r«ÀÊ®£¶»rªrSÂrKµ®3«rª¨r3® F þ¹¬Ó[¬Ô1¡6£«À¡6¬®)ûmrµ¡6«Àr¡»º®Ô3P¬Þr3¬»¨[£«À¡ »¨®¼¨¨rr«ªr SÓ1r««ÀrH¨ 3¡»º®)¯ "l¬«¬SK¡>ûc¬ ×
¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£»cÔ3P¬Þþø¬¨rÓ3Ó1Àr®î®R¿¢¦Rü3«¢þ µ = (Y ) ≥ 0(Y = 0) ÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅÓ É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿À Sr>¸ªr«3®)ûX¦¬«P¬cÀf¡rµ Ùhø ½HÈhÂ/Ëh× ¯ Ò ¨S¿µ ®¬Ô.¡ª¡QcRÓ3««ü13®´c£¶á3 þø¬Ó[¬Ô1¡6£«À¡rûr¨Âr¶ª¡ × c®r«« Π = (Π ) F ßà .È òñ <¬ t t=0,.,T t t=0,.,T 0 « ¦ r¨¡6fü31®Yµ × ºL¦ ×3× û B «¿¶»½ σþø¬«À × ¶6£>¦¬«w¬»»¨ÞP£«¢¡ G = (G ) [«À¡»¶6£Þ½¡r¯¦Ê¨¬ 3«À¡6¶»£ÞrÀ½ «Àµ¬û1µ ¡6¬¶ª¡6¬«c¬¨qS1Ó3r÷i¶»c£ÞrÀ½¡w¬¾Ô Âr1¨rü3µRmÂr¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£».Ô3P¬Þ¶»½«H¯ [«À¡6H 3¡»º3û
3µ S1Ó3r t = 1, ., T − ¶» Âr F = G = {∅, Ω} F ⊂G, Ò G σþ¹¬« × ¶6¬¦ÂrS1Ó3r t = 0, ., T þ¹¶ªq¯ ô¹µ c®7¬Ô1¡»å3®¬»¨r£<å31®R¶»¬F¬«®7¬«c¬ ÏfÓdÐf¿>ÉÅø ¿XÈ`ÅÓ ¡Ó=Ë Óg×ØÉfÙÁÍ ÍP¡>¯ (M, G) t t=0,.,T X t t 0 0 t 6È <¬ q â6vrnopróvruoprqÇôóõ ÒY× À¨¡6»¿À¡»½q¬¨ 7® £¶»®fl3¨r¡»Âr,r««Àr3Â × Π ÏfÓdÐf¿SÉÅø ¿BÈ`ÅÓÙhø ½f¬¡U»¨rÓ × û Π = (Π ) ¯YT®f®¶ ¬°c½RÓ3ª¿À¡»¡»¡ Û = Û (Π, , , Ç ) = (c ) ÷iµK¬ª¨¡6£»)÷i«Àµ¬c¬¡t¬±®¼L¦¡6®r¨º®ÂÔ3Ô. 3¨ f® < Hß& Û = +Π+ − =( +Π− )+ . Ò ¨ 0&ß :÷ir«À¿¶6£ × ½«x®¼L¦¡6®r¨®){û 3µ
3¬¬¨rÓ1Ó3x¡»º®Ô3P¬Þr·cRÓ3««ü13®ô¡¾»¨r¶»ô¡63Â3® × ¨ôþ ¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªÔ1P¬Þ1SÓ3««ÀÂ × ºL¦R¿À¡63 û¬®f®¶bµ±c½RÓ3ª¿À¡6¡»¡[¸»£¶6¬Ó1Âr®Q÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡6¶6¬·¦¬<»¨ü3®f»Âü33®)û ¬c< iÕ 7− ˜ = + Π − , ÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡6® G þ cÂ$¶ 3ô¡6ºRr®)û[¿µ ¬ ˜ G þ¹¬Ó[¬Ô¡¤£«¢¡>¯ ¬ 3«%¬¨ Âõ¬ Π óᶻÓ3Ârû 3µr¨°r«ÀÂrþ Ứ>£<å33®f¶6¬ Æ ê %rKfÈÌ ÍÐÏ ¾Ë,Ì0L >ÍNLÎ[ ÍÐÏ Ò ¨rµR»¨r¶ªXÓ3¿â¸»¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£:Ó3¿â¸»¬ Sr÷i««À¡6ô%¡ 3ô¡6º ¬ Π = (π , 0, ., 0) Ó3¿â¸»£¶»¬S[¬®)ûTh¬ 3«
þ¹SÂr/¶ 3¡»º3:¯ "l¬µRTrµ¡»«r × [¨rô¡6ÂwÂr¶ª®¨r®)û1¬¨·l¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£Ê¡6¬¶ª¡6¬£[¬®:«Àr«¹¸ªÂr¯ π G Ò ¨QrµR»¨r¶ªUÓ1¿â¸»¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ Û (Π , , , Ç ) ÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ª%÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡¤¬:®R®¶ [¬ Âr hç c = w +D +π t = 0, [¬ < c = w +D −Y t ≥ 1. ,Í Û Ì ÁBÇhÄ&Áà ÁBÇhÄ G Õ4Ë&Ù&Ë ¡¿BÈhÍ´HÈhÂ/Ë&ÙÔÊ :Ð`Á¿SÔÅÓ É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿ ÷ G Õ>×ØÔÂ%Ö Á¿>À Π ÁBÇhÄ`Õ ñ t t=0,.,T ñ è t t=0,.,T è Ì»é è ñ è è ñ è Ì»é ñ è ñ ·ö 0 0 0 0 ñ è 0 Ì #ÏRÐ (Ñ Bê 0 0 x,0 0 t t x,t t ÷ë TÈ ¢« 3 Å$Ð`ÁÂÓÙhø ½ËÐ:øàÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó
:Ð`Á¿SÔÅÓ0«É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿ÁÅÁ¿SÔÃÖÈ¡Ó=Ë<¬Ê&É`ÃÐfÓÅ$Ðf¿>ÁÃÒÅÑ9ÖÒË ë U max ( + Π0 − ß1Ä ø ë ) = U max ( ). 0 0 è 00ÍiLÎ3 ÷ ù Π0 ¡Ó=Ë<¬Ê&É`ÃÐfÓÅ$Ðf¿SÁÃÒÅÁBÇhÄÅ$Ð`ÁÂÓ Ùhø ½ÁBÇhÄ Ô¿>ÁÍá×H¡Áà ÍÔ¿SÁ$ÐfÓÊÑÔÅNËÐúøàÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅÓ È É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿)Ê&É`à ÚhÁcl«ÌhÇÇhÚhÔÃ Ä Á3 ¾É`Ú`È&ÏÏÈ`ѦÖÒËûø « π0 ( ø (1) ) ≤ π0 ( ª (1) ø (2) 3 ø (2) ≤ ×bË/½HÙhÃÁ× ×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁà Ì+¿=¿xÑË`ÊÊ&É` ) rKfÈ7R ÍÐÏ ¾Ë,Ì0L >ÍNLÎ[ ÍÐÏ Ò ¶»3Ó3»¨r¶ªráÓ3¿Ø¸»¬ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£rª¡»<c÷ir«Àr«¢¡6¡$3¡»º¬ Π = (0, π , ., π )
Ó3¿â¸»£¶6¬S[¬®)û ¬ 3« þ¹SÂr¶/3¡»º3¯ π G Ò ¶ªr3Ó3ª¨r¶»rõÓ3¿â¸»¬Xr»ô¡ × r´¬¾®¼L¦¡»®¨rº Û (Π , , , Ç ) ÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ª÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡6¡X®7¬Ôf¸ªå3® [¬ Âr ²h c = w +D t = 0, [¬ HÖ c = w +π +D −Y t ≥ 1. Ý ,Í Û Ì ÁBÇhÄ&Áà àÁBÇhÄ G Õ4Ë&Ù&Ë ¡¿BÈhÍ´HÈhÂ/Ë&ÙÔÊ :Ð`Á¿>ÔÅÓ É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿ ÷ G Õ>×ØÔÂÖ Á¿>À Π Â%ÁáÙhÕ ü rÐ ( 0 ñ è 0 Ì #ÏRÐ (Ñ Bê 0 0 t t Hë x,0 x,t t TÈ « 3 Å$Ð`ÁÂ%ÁÅÙhø ½ËÐ:øàÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó :Ð`Á¿SÔÅÓ0«É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿ÁÅÁ¿SÔÃÇÈ¡Ó=Ë<¬Ê&É`ÃÐfÓÅ$Ðf¿SÁÃÒÅÑ:ÖÒË 0 ë 00ÍiLÎ3 U max ( + Π −
¡ÁBÇhÄÌ&ʤ«ÁÍÑgÖ É$ÇhÄØËÐ ª ý ù (M, F) π0 = π ø ( < ë ) = U max ( ). ¿>ÀÊ&ÁÈ¡Ó=Ë<¬N¿>ÁÍ ½ÁÅÑÁÊÊ&É` T X E [Mt ] , t=1 ×ªÓ ÚhÁÍ¿SÁÍ ½ÁŤȡÓ=Ë<¬vÁÅÁ¿>Ôÿ=ÆÙ/½Æ&ÊÑ Ö É$ÇhÄuÁBÇhÄ Ô¿>ÁÍá×H¡ÁÃÍÔ¿>Á$ÐfÓÊØËÐ q oÿDqLot ä þ õ¬ Mt 3 uok þø¬Ó[¬Ô1¡¤£«¢¡x®7£¶ª®Rd[¨rô¡6»÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡X«Àr33û[rµ r»¨®¼¨±£¶»¬S¬¾®¼L¦¡6®r¨º®ÂÔ3Ô ¬Ó3½RÓ3[¬Ò " # X §ÄL&à y =E MY . ÊSP¬¡ª¡>ûrµ Ó3¿Ø¸»£¶6¬ ÀK¬¨r»£·¬®R®¶·Âr·Þr»¬®¬®f®¶rû [¬ Π " # X §ÄRÄ y =E MΠ . ʪ¡6ü13® × F¬ Ó3¿Ø¸»£¶6¬ò¬¨r ×
¬ Gþ¹¬Ó[¬Ô1¡6£«À¡rûU¦¬µÀ±1r㣶6¬f¨ [¬¡»½ ¬÷iK¡6§ÄL&à á®ÂÔ3«ô¡ Π ¬«P¬ÔR¸»£¯ Ò §ÄL&à X»¨r¶ªK¡6A£¶õ¡»å3«P¬¸ªÓ13®ÂÔ3Ô r ®RÞ¤®7£¨>¬7¡6SrK¡6áK¬¨6£ý£¶ª[¬®¡6®fK%¡ 3ô¡6º3û ßKÙ Iñ F T 0 t t t=1 T 0 t t=1 t ¬ ¨>¬¨¾¬ Ô3¬Þ¤®3¨rÀ»¨¡»r3°£¶ûm¬SÀ¡q¬®Þ¤®7£¨r¬¡6ªrS«r × À¨¡»»¿¢¡6½ «À¦£¶r¯ Ò ¨ × ¬û 3¬¬ × ¨ôþ ¡»»¿¢¡6½¾®RÞ¤®7£¨>¬7¡6®¶»ü3«Àº (γ > 0) û1rµR¡6¶6¬¾Ó3¿Ø¸»¬¡·»¨r£c¿¢¡x÷ir«m¬ ®Þ¤®7£¨r¬¡õ£¡»¦£«À«P¬«£6£Â¶ª¡r¯ "l¬µR·¬ ®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨rºÀK¬¨
% 0HÍNLÎ[ Ó Ã¡ÙÁà G Õ4Ë&Ù&Ë ¡¿BÈhÍá¿ Π Ùhø ½HÈhÂ/ËhתÂ$Ë`Ñ:ÖÒË TÈ ù ë U max ( + Π − ø ë ) = U max ( ), Ë`ÊÊ&É` E " T X # " Mt Π t ≥ y 0 = E T X # M t Yt . Ò øÄLà1¯õ£«À«¿¢¡¤£®fS3Ó7¸»¬1û¾3µ®RÞ¤®7£¨>¬7¡6®¶»ü3«ÀÂrQrª¡»Âr¬¨ r«¢¦£¶ª¡ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª,Ó1¿â¸q[¬µ ×3× û SK¡·¬¨ ï®7£¶»®fd[¨rô¡6Ârª%÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡xÓ3À»¨r®K¡¤£«¢¡Âr¶ª¡»Âr®¯ ,Âr«ÀÓ[£å3«Hû[¬§ÄLà¯|x£«À«¿¢¡¤£w¬ t=1 Bñ t=1 *$ π0 ≥ E " T X # M t Yt = y 0 µ3«º¡6«3»Â¡¬Ó7¸»¬1¯ Ò ¨ µ3«º¡»«3»ÂY®Â¡«ÀÓ[¬«¬®¼¨¡6q®Rü1«¼ × ªÂrY¬ ×
¨ô¡6ª¿À¡»½£«À¡6¬« ÷i«ª¨>£S«À¡w®RÞ¤®7£¨>¬¡»mÓ3¿â¸û1¬c.÷iü3S¬ ®RÞ¤®£¨>¬¡»®r¶ªü3«ÂqSÂr¶§¡6Âr®Â¡»º« û γþ ¡6½«H¯ Ò ®Þ¤®7£¨r¬¡6®r¶»ü1«Âr§¡õ¦Âr¡»r«Àr33® ¡6®RÀK¡»¦°®7¬ÔR¸ªå3®¬ ®¼¦¡»®r¨º¡ )[ f> ÁBÇhÄ&Áà Y = 0Ñ!ÔÅNÓ Ã¡ÙhÆ Ê`¿=ø Ú`ËhÃ×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁà t ≤ T Ô¿SÔÊ`Â%Á @ê sup T +1 sup Ytsup = esssup Yt + Mt−1 E Yt+1 Mt+1 Gt ] Ft , Gt−1 . ¼ÊÊ&É` E " RÅ ñfêKÏrfê %KR Ù ¢ö ñfêKÏrfê %KR Ù t=1 ¢ö T X t=1 # Mt Yt = lim π0 (γ) ≤ π0 (γ) ≤ lim π(γ) = Y0sup . Ó Ã¡ÙÁà F γ↓0 γ↑∞ Õ4Ë&Ù&ËTÈ¡¿BÈhÍá¿IøàÊhÈhÂ%Ê`Ó
:Ð`Á¿SÔÅÓ<«É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿=Â/Ë ÷ Y0sup = y0 = E ÏfÓdÐf¿>ÉÅø ¿BÈ`ÅÓÙhø ½ γ " T X t=1 # M t Yt . ×ØÉ`ÃÉ`¿>É`ÃÃÎ`ÚhÀ¤«ÌhÇÇhÚhÔÃ Ä Á3 ßß e ¹ ëð*ì[åîKUì9íî ëág®ëHò2ƺêué{ç KÑm 0HÍNLÎ[ ì[é!ñ%Cé{î9îKP!èé ¡ÁBÇhÄÌ&Ê:«ÁÍÑyÖ É$ÇhÄÚ`ËhÃÁBÇhÄ ª ù F Õ4Ë&Ù&ËTÈ¡¿XÈhÍá¿ ¿>ÀÊ&ÁÈ¡Ó=Ë<¬É`Ã63b¼ÊÊ&É`ÂÁBÇhÄ&Ô¿>ÁÍá×H¡ ÁÃÍÔ¿>Á$ÐfÓÊ ÁBÇhÄ F ½HÈhÂ/Ë&ÙÔÊ « É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿<ÆÃÒʨËÐ ë (M, F) Õ4Ë&Ù&ËTÈ¡¿BÈhÍá¿ ¬ ùc;Ñ;Ñ(ëÑ%Ò ü « É$ÇhÄhË`Å$Ðf¿XÈ`ÅÓ6«É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿ Ñ ×ØÁÍáĪÊ`ÓBÁÍÔBÇhø ¿=ÓË ù¾füi«ÁÍá¿>Ô¿SÁÍá¿ Ñ!ÔÅËbÊ&Î`ÚhÁ¿ Ê&Á$Ð`ÀËhÍdË`ÊhÏËhà ø
Â%ÖÒËh¿>Û¨ §ÄÙ ³À¦«m¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£».Ô3P¬Þá1rÿ¡»r«â¸ªrû3¨r¶ª¡3rÿ¬Ó[¬7¡6½¾c rµÂr¶§¡6r«À<Á3µ M Ó3 )£¡6¶ ÷i«ÀµK¬¬¡rû1¿Àµ Ô1¡6À£«ÀT÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ªm÷i«ÀµK¬¬¡w»¯~ʨr¶ª¡·¡6µRü3® ÷ir«m¬ ®¼L¦¡6®r¨º¡ −1/γ ct = c0 e−ρt/γ Mt . t Ri>f R <¶ ¸ Ó Ã¡ÙÁà t = 0, . , T − 1 Ú`ËhÍÛÅ$Ðfø â¡&ÅÔBÇhÓYÚ`ÈhÍá¿>ÉfÐ`Û`Â/Ë Õ>Â%ÁßÔÅõ×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁÃqÓ Ã ¿>ÁBÇhÂ/ÈhÍÖÒËh¿SÛ Ft+1 Õ>×ØÔÂ%Ö Á¿SÀ Y E [Y |Ft ] = E [Y |Gt ] . l¬µR¬ t. Ó3ºÔ3«À«P¬[¬7¡ × ¬Fªc¶ª¡ ×
À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªý1÷i¶»c£ÞrÀ½®k»rSS«Àµr À1÷i¶»c£Þ½¡3r ¬Ó3[¬®¬ t + 1. Ó3ºÔ1««¬[¬¡ × «[Ô Âr3¨ü3µRmrªrSÂrKµ®R¶ªº« ¯ " 0HÍNLÎ[ ù 9ÁÍÖÒË`Å$ÐfáÈhÍáÚ`ËGËÐù 9#3VüÑ~ù1,3VüÑYÔÅNù ËhÂHÏfÓ ¿=Â/ÈÐÅ×ØÁà ¿SÁÅÑÚ`ËÇhÄ`ÓÅNÍÔ¿>Á$ÐfÓÊÁBÇhÄ (Rt )t=0,.,T (M, G) ÏfÓdÐf¿>ÉÅø ¿XÈ`ÅÓ#È¡Ó=Ë<¬ ÙÁ¼Ú!Èh¿>É`«É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿xÑ*ËhתÓg¿>ÁÍ ½ÁÅø ¿=ÓËÐ j = 1, . , L ÔÅN×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁà t = 0, . , T − 1 §ÄLß & Rt qj,t = E [ Rt+1 (qj,t+1 + Dj,t+1 )| Gt ] ÁÍá¿>Ô¿>ÁÍá¿×ªÓ áÙÁà « Vü ÁÍá¿SÁÚhÔÅÁÓ ÃÒÊ&Á¿ Ñ9ËÐ 9##3 =« Õ>Â%Á3 õ«À¡6¬«P£ × ¬ (M, G)
3¡»r«Ø¸ªrrû,r¨Âr¶ª¡±¡6¼ ×1× Ó3 )£¡6¶±÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡Q«Âô¡6¨r®)û,c«Àµ ®f«Â¿À¡»T¬§Ä Ó1H [3¿ÀÞrÀ½¡>û73¬ F 3r«¢µÂ¶» G þ ¡ý¿¶»å13®)û%ÂrQ3r®fü31® r¨r® ®¼¨rü3«Ê®r««Ê®f¢¦£«P¬ª¨¡¤¬3A¬c¬`c£«À 3¬»¨3»»£æ1¡r¯ %µ Ç rµ Gþø¬Ó[¬Ô1¡6£«À¡°Ô ¶ª¡ª÷i½«À½®r¶ªr»®rÓ3»·ª¡»¶6¬¡»Âr¬1ûAÂ<Ó3[3P£«â¸ªå3® ¬ ÔÃÐfÌhÇhÄ`Ó¿>ÀÊ&Á É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿ø¡¬¾®¼L¦ô¡6®¨rº®ÂrÔ3Ô r ~ t t È « Xt = L X (Dj,t + qj,t ) xj,t−1 . T¨r»»ü13® × Qrµæ7¸ H σþø¬«À × ¶»£¡>ûc«Àµ¬S®¼L¦¡»®¨rº " j=1 t H0 = F 0 ,
ÔÅ Ht = σ (Ft , Gt−1 ) ßÕ ×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁà t = 1, . , T − re è Rà ï ÷Ð È Xt É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿=Â$ËõÍÔ¿SÁ$ÐfÓÊ ÁBÇhÄ « ÔÃÐfÌhÇhÄ`Ób¿>ÀÊ&ÁÇ«É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿ G Ht Õ>×ØÔÂ%Ö Á¿SÀÑ ÔÅÏÈhÂ×ØÁÍáÄ Õ4Ë&Ù&ËTÈ¡¿XÈhÍá¿ZÒàÈ É`¿«Û`ÍáÓBÛÊ&Á$Ð`ÁÍÔÅÓ#Å¿=Â/Ëh¿SÔBÇhÓ=Ë`ÑØ×ØÁÍáÄÃÁÊ Ht ¿>ÀÊ&Áo«É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿XË#3÷ÐbÁà ÃÁÊ×ØÁBÇc«ÁÍÁÍÀ*½Æ+¿BËhÍÔʪÊ`Ó :Ð`Á¿SÔÅÓr«É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿=Â/ËÓdÇ&ËÐÑgÖ É$ÇhÄ Dx,t = L X (Dj,t + qj,t ) xj,t−1 − L X Õ4Ë&Ù&ËTÈ¡¿BÈhÍá¿ Xt Ë È Xt ÔÃÐfÌ ÇhÄ`Ó qj,t xj,t−1 = §Ä>Õ Ò 3¨û3µc¡¤¬«P£«Ø¸ªå3® ¬ × ºL¦ ×3× G σþø¬« × ¶6£ ×
¬Àq¬¨:Ô1¡»c£«Àw÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ªU÷i«ÀµK¬¾þ ¬7¡6¡rû3 ×3× r»¿À¡·3®fü33®¬ ®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨rº£««¿¢¡¤£¯ RÝ 0HÍNLÎ[ ¼gÇhÄ&Ô¿>ÁÍá× ÁÃÍÔ¿SÁ$ÐfÓÊØË (M, G) ÏfÓdÐf¿SÉÅø ¿BÈ`ÅÓ ¡Ó=Ë É`ÃâÁBÇhÄ G Õ4Ë&Ù&Ë ¡¿BÈhÍá¿ j=1 j=1 Xt+1 Mt+1 = Xt − E Gt . Mt H¡ ù È ct = wt + Dx,t <¬ TÈ Xt+1 Mt+1 = w t + Xt − E Gt > 0 Mt É7È¡¿=Ó ×bÈhÍáÓÅ«É$ÇhÄhË`Å$Ðf¿XÈ`ÅÓr«É`ÍáÄ Ëh×bËh¿ ÑËh×ªÓ ×bË! Ó ×bËhÍáÓdÐÈhÍ ½HË®ù¾fü`Õ>¿xÑ!ÔÅN×ØÁBÇ`ÖÒËh¿BÈhÂ%ÉfÐÖÒËh¿SÛbËÐ −1 −1 e−ρ E c−γ Ht = c−γ t Mt t−1 Mt−1 ÁBÇhÄ&Áà ÍÀÅÔBÇ&ÏÀ`Í 3 ¡ê ®óìFUï î7ìKAuóì»AYò f ùUr«Ø¸ªrXÔ3¬Þý»¡»Âr¬¨
F þø¬Ó[¬Ô1¡¤£«¢¡t÷iµK¬ª¨¡6£»÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡t®¼1fµr»¨>£c«l[¬¡»½®§ÄÙhw¬«P¬ÔR¸»£¯ Ò 1r þ ¡6«â¸ªxÔ3P¬Þýr31Âr«%»®R®7¬« × Kµ«å3«¢¡¤¬ ×1× ¯bùUrµRü3® ÷i«rµR¶ªÂr»¨¶»º«Hû3µ¬¨ F þø¬Ó3¬Ô1¡¤£«À¡ ¸»£¶6¬Ó3®K÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡ Gþø¬Ó3¬Ô1¡¤£«À¡»¡6£¡6H3¡»º ¬ iÕ ±¡6¶»¬3ª¨÷i¶ª£Þ½L¦¬« ¯³´£»¶»Â»¨¶»º«Hûw¬ Ô ¶ª¡ª÷i½«À½þ §¡6¶»¬¡6ÂP£1®¬7¡ G þ 3r®hSr÷i««ºRrh¦£«P¬ª»¨rå1®uSr1¯ö³ª¡¡6®RÀK¡6»ü1® ¬k÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ª±÷i«¢µK¬7þ c¬¡»å33®7¬¡bµ±3r þ ¡»r«â¸ª
(M, G) × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªÔ1P¬Þ¯ Ò ®f»¨r£S¿À¡¤£6h£ 3¨tµ<«¢µK¬:3Ó3å1®f¡»¿À¦ §¡6¶ªå3®K¡6æ3¶»£¡ ¬Ó1å33® c3ûb¬c««Àµr«Ê 1Ô1«ÞÀ¡°»¨r£S« [¬7¡6½¬¨Ô¡6c£«Àq÷iµK¬ª¨¡¤£»T÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡>û ¬c«Àµ × º«DÔ rÓ3ÀSSr®¬ÔR¸ªå3®¬¨áµR»¨r¶» × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£».Ó3¿â¸»¬7¡>û Π þ ¡r¯ 1r¨°3f [£fµ÷iü1¦ÂKµ × ô¦r¨¡»Âr»Â¶»:¦¬ª¨rü3®f»Âü33®)¯ %µ x ∈ R :¯ %rµr G (x, ) ≡ 0 ¯A³3Ó1r t = T, ., 1 Âr¶ª¡»Âr®f¶»TÀ3Ó3å3®K¡6¿¢¦¬ácK¬Ó3å13® µ H þ cÂ$¶ 3ô¡6º¾¶6¬3Ó3 ÷iü3¦ÂrKµf¡>û F (x, )þ
¡>û)¬cD¬¨ §Äç e E (w + F (x, ) − G (F (x, ), )) M | H = (w + x) M ßKç 0 è T +1 è t −ρ t è t t è t+1 t è −γ −1 t t t−1 −γ −1 t−1 µ3«ô¡bSr«Ó[£»¬1ûrµ þ¹SÂr¶$1¡6º¶6¬3Ó3 ÷iü3¦Âfµf¡rû G (x, )þ ¡>û¬S¶ªb¡6r«Ø¸ªrªü3« û`3µ §Ä M F (x − G (x, ), )| G G (x, ) − E = 0, M ·rµ H þ¹SÂr¶$1¡6º¾¶»¬3Ó3 ÷iü3¦ÂrKµf¡>û H þ ¡rû[¬SÀ¡X¿Àµ Ó3 [3£«å31¡® §Äh² H (x, ) = F (x − G (x, ), ) . Rà ¡ÁBÇhÄÌ&Ê ÁÍÑ Ö É$ÇhÄ w > 0 ×bË/½HÙhÃÁ× ×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁà ̿=¿xÑ~×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁà t = 0, ., T Ô¿SÔÊ`Â%Á è Gt−1 t è è t t t è t t−1 t−1 t t è è t <ý ï ª t è t i« 3 t
¼ÊÊ&É`ÂË.«Áà ¿*ÙÁ¼Ã Ó=ÈhÍá¿ù 9#ü`Õù 9/üªÂ/ËháÙÉ`× « ÌhÇÇhÚhÔÃ Ä ÁÊÍÔ¿>Á$ÐfÃÁÊ3 Å% f> ÷ÐÞÉ7È¡¿=Ó ×bÈhÍáÓÅ ÔÃÐfÌhÇhÄ`Ó.«É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿SÉ`¿ØÓ ¿SÁÂ/Ëh¿=ø Ú`Ëhà ÊhËTÈR½Æ&Ê ×ØÁBÇË È (Xt )t=0,.,T Ë&Ù&ËTÈ¡¿BÈhÍ´HÈhÂ$Ë&ÙÔÊ « É`ÍáÄhËh×bËh¿BÏÛ`ÍÑðhÇhÄRÑÖ É$ÇhÄ X0 = 0 ÔÅ G Õ §Ä>Ö Ò §Ä>Ö&rµr3«À¡ × º«R£¶%®RÀ»¨r£c¿¢¡%[¬7¡6½¬ Π ¯ ¨r£S¿À¡¤£6¬À3®qª¶6£±»¨r¶»ô¡63Â3®)û&3µ°¬¨t«À¦£¶ª¡ 3¬»¨3»»£3:¦£«¢¡6¨¨r ¬¨ ã®7£¶»®fl3¨r¡»Ârª,÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡ × ô¦r¨¡»Âr»Âô¦« ¯vʨ
¬¨¡t¸ª«rK¡» û¡3µ 3¬c × rÞrªü3«â¸ªü1®´¬¨±Ô1¡»c£«Àx÷iµK¬»¨¡6£»U÷i«Àµ¬c¬¡6¡õ¬c¡»r«Ø¸ªrqÔ1P¬Þ¶6¬1û.¬®f®¶ý¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£» Ô1P¬Þ¶6¬<¦3¬¡6®¨r½¾÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ªm÷i«ÀµK¬¬¡x¬¨ §Ä X̃ = H (X , + Π − ) ®ÂrÔ3«À¡ × º«¬Ó3½RÓ3À® û¬S × º«Sr 3¬¡¤£¶ªf¨ 3¬¡6½ π æ3µhû 1µ±¬¨lr«À¦£¶§9¡ [¬»¨3ª6£ý1t¦£«À¡»¨r¨¯ ʨr®å1¡6£´¬¨áÔ1¡6À£«T÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ª%÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡ Ù&à M c = +X −e X G . ×ªÓ Ã¡ÙÁà ë Xt = Ht (Xt−1 , ) t = 1, ., T 0 2ñ è t t ñ t−1 0 0 è t t+1 t t Mt ß t+1 t
Õ>Â%Á . & ±³² ~ Fkk à ! µ ô~ d ± 3× × rF¬ ¶»Â»¨ × ¬¨«º¨º´÷iø¸ª¨rô¡ × rY«r¿À¶ª¡rû ¸ À3Ó3å3®K¡6¿¢¦§¡6¶ªå3®K¡6æ3¶»¬`¹¬«¬ÔR¸»£ ®fª¨>£S¿À¡i¸ªå3® µ¹¸§¡6ºRr¶»Kµº × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£XÂô¦õÓ3¿Ø¸»£¡>¯ ³Ó3««Àü33® × ßS«Àf3ô¡6»Âr·®fSr1¡·¦¬ ÖÒËhÍdÈhÍxù*üÑ ÅÔÂÌ+ÍÔÅùBú üÑ ÅÔÂÌÍÔÅNÃÔÍÊ`ÌÍáÓg¿(ð+ÍÔÍÔÅù ê ü 3 乪c¶i¸ªü3® ¬¨Qr¨r®f¶»Q¦[¬7¡6®¨r½c¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂr®¡f pD = 0.0000132, pS = 0.00152878 ÔÅ pL = 1 − pD − pS = 0.998458 ³ À¦«D¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£Ê¡¤¬¶§¡¤¬c¬
Äq¦ ûr¨r¶ª¡ T = 1r¯ )«À¡»r»ª¨rü3®)û+3µS¬ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£»[Ó3¿Ø¸T¦S«ø¸ªÂ ¶»®r¨rÀ®)û.ÂõS3Ó1r®fl[¨¡6ÂqÂô¦¦ÂrÂr¡»¼¶ª¡»Âr3À®)¯ Ò× ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£»¼»»¨r®33®c÷ir«Àr«ºRr ¬¨°«ªºSÂô¦ ¦ÂÂr oX L1 = 0, D1 = 5, S1 = 3 À« f3ô¡63® H¬¨¾Âr¶§¡6®r® S««À½ ,¡ªþ × ¬ Âr¶ª¡»r3Ó1º®+ô¯)¨rü1®RªÂrü13® ¦¬cµ ®fü3«ª¼¾¸»£¶»¬Ó3®Kþ ÷i«ÀµK¬¬¡»¶6¬1ûr¨Q«µ7 ÖX Ò Ó3 )£¡»¶x÷i«Àµ¬c¬¡6å31®¡ M0 ≡ 1, w0 = 1 M1 (D1 ) = 1.2, ÔÅ w1 = 0. M1 (S1 ) = 1.1 ÔÅ , 24ABwRJ2/P<I4FrRI4LgP<TABTJ kx£RF{E*Q`EJI/P<IS?BQMHJ
I4ABI/iMABTFFECf?BPBWOHTHPI$P=I4?<I/FIS? 5|P41 /;(?=?9E*FTHABWQRQR5|EFf?<ZHJI/JV?B24ABMfI/C-/P<EFELgI/JP<M2433I/J /THOJ|EJFTHL4£RCRF 1 ßK² M1 (L1 ) = 1. Ò ® Þ¤®7£¨r¬¡6®r¶»ü1«ÂrSÂr¶ª¡»Âr® γ = 0.5 û3¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡6½<¡6ü1¶»r«Àcô¡6«Àr3ªÂr ρ = 1 ¯ Ò ¨<1Ó3å3®K¡6¿¢¦§¡6¶ªå3®K¡6æ3¶»£ × ¬ T þ ¡»º«%¦R»ª¨>¬÷i«Â<®r«À«A¬¨:r«ªº Ó1ºÔ.f¡»Sr«Ø¸ªå1¡63Hû1r®fü33®¦À»¨K¡ û·¿Àµk÷ir«P¬Ó[¬¡6å13®FÞ»å3Ô3£ F (x) û G (x) Âr H (x) Sr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨>£»¬1¯ ùUå3Ó7¸ªå3®)û3µ T = 1 c¬¡»¡ G ≡ 0. q¬¡6£¶»¨r¨rå1®Sª¡qc F (x)þ ¡Q¬§Äç ·®ÂÔ3«ô¡Q¬«P¬ÔR¸»£ûD¬cU¬¨ô¡ G ≡0
¸ª«f¡» û 1µ¬¨ 1 T +1 1 1 2 1 è è è −1 e−ρ E (wt + Ft (x, ) − Gt+1 (Ft (x, ), ))−γ Mt−1 | Ht = (wt−1 + x)−γ Mt−1 µ3«ô¡ F (x) Sr«ÀÓ[£»£¡l®r¶ªrª»ü3®)¯ t = 1þ¹ô¡1r«Àµ¡ª¡6rª¿À¡ª¦ýÂt®f3¬»¨[£«À¦¬N3µ SÂr¶/3¡»º3û3®7¬ÔR¸ªå1® û3µ 1 1 (w1 + F1 (x))−1 E e 1 H1 M1 ä¹13r´£¡6¶ªr3Ó3¨¦û F (x)þ ¡®fÀ÷iø¸ª¨¦û)®7¬ÔR¸ªå3®)û 3µ 1 = (w0 + x)− 2 F1 1 . M0 1 ³ª¡ x 1r«ÀµÂr¶ª w0 + x 2 E F1 (x) = e2 x − G1 (x) þ¹¡¿À¶ª¦¬Ò M0 H1 M1 1 + x − G1 (x) 2 F1 (x − G1 (x)) = E e2 Ò ø Ä&wrµr1«¡õ¬«¬ÔR¸»£ ÷i«¿À¶$[¬¡i¸ªå3® G1 (x) = E G1 (x) þ ¡ M1 1 + x − G1 (x) 2 E
M0 e2 x¡»¶»3Ó3r¨ô¦±Ârõ¬¾SÂr¶/3¡»º»Âr®¡õ®f[¬ª¨r[£«À¦¬Ò − w1 . M0 H1 . M1 M0 H1 M1 G0 . ~ E G1 (x) = 2 M0 M1 H1 E M1 M0 e2 + E 2 E M0 H1 M1 M0 M1 G0 + E H1 E M0 M1 H E G 1 0 M1 M0 õ¬¡¤£¶»¨¨rå3® SrS¬ ®3®f¶»Â¡¦£¶$3¬¡6½¾Âr¶§¡6®r®¡f M1 x M0 G0 . 1 · 0.998458 + 1 · 000152878 = 0.998458 + 1 1 · 0.998458 + 1 · 000152878 + 0.0000132 + 1.2 1 · 0.00152878 + 1 · 000152878 + 0.998458 = 0.9998, 1.1 ßÖ H1 þ E M1 H1 M0 1 = 0.998458 + 1 · 0.998458 + 1 · 000152878 1.2 + 0.0000132 + 1 · 0.998458 + 1 · 000152878 1.1 = 1.000168 + 0.998458 1 · 0.00152878 + 1 · 000152878 ʨr®ô¡ýc£¶w¦Rª»¨r¬¾¡»å3Ó7¸ªå3®u3«Àµ¡»¡»rª¿À¡63%®¶6£ ×3×
%rµr3«À¡63® × û)r¨Âr¶§¡ G1 (x) = 0.9999862 · 1000168 + 0999986 · E ä¹13r£¶t÷ir«¿À¶$[¬7¡6½¾¬ ÷iü3¦ÂfµÀf 0.9999862 · 1000168 + e2 H1 (x) M1 x M0 G0 = 0.1192+01192·E M1 x G0 = H1 (x) = 0.1353 1 + x − 01192 + 01192 · E M0 M1 = 0.1353 08808 + x − 01192 · E x G0 M0 ³ª¡)[¬¡6£¶»¨¨rå3® S rF¬kÔ.Â3¨rü3µá¡»º® ÷i«Àµ¬c¬¡6¡r¯îù,å3Ó¸ªå3®)ûG3µ ¯ X = H (X , ) X0 = 0 M1 x G0 . M0 ûýÂr3µ è 1 1 0 X1 = H1 (X0 ) = 0.1353(08808 + 0 − 01192 · 0) = 01353 · 08808 = 01192 õ¬¡¤£¶»¨¨rå3® SrS¬¨QÔ¡6c£«ÀT÷iµK¬»¨¡6£»÷i«ÀµK¬¬¡»¡·¬ Ùà&x¬«P¬ÔR¸»£7 c0 = 1 + 0 − 0.1192 · 1000168 = 088 c1 = 0 + 0.1192 − 0 = 01192
ÊÓ3Ó1¬ ¡»º®Ô3P¬Þr¶6¬ ¬«À®¡»¡»¡¾SÓ1r«« × »¨r£c«À¡6å13®)¯ ³ª¡c®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨rÀ® ¬ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»wÔ3¢þ ¬ÞrëÀ¦º´Ô1¡»c£«Àq÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ªt÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡°Sr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨>£»¬1¯® 3¨ r«Àº»¨¼¶°÷i«t®r«À«t¿À¶»få33® ¬ S½RÓ3»¿¢¡6¡ª¡x¸»£¶6¬Ó1Âr® ÷i«Àµ¬¬7¡6¡rûb¬ w̃ = w + π − Y ¬«¬ÔR¸»£D¯ [r«À¡»¦Âr»3®»¨r¶»ÀK¡S¬ ௠Ô3«À«P¬3¬¡ × ¬ cÂr¶ª®r¨® ¬Ó3¿â¸ûUÂr±¬®fü3«À»º÷i¶»¶6£ × ½«Ê»¨r£¶»c¬¨r½<¸»£¶»¬Ó3Âr®)û,®Rd[¨rô¡6Â:r®f®¶ SÂr × ¨ô¡6»¬ 3À3Þr¯ Ò
¨:«»ºÂ¦¦ÂÂr ¬S½RÓ3»¿¢¡6¡ª¡A¸»£¶6¬Ó3Âr®K÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡õc [¬¡6£¶»¨r£6¬¾rRþ 1Âr« × Kµ«å3«¢¡¤¬ ×3× ¯ Ò Ô3¶ª × «ÀÂrc£¡<¬¨Q¸ªr«ÀrK¡6Hûg3µ¬¨ r«À»º Âô¦¦ÂrÂY1r¡6å3Ó7¸ªå1® × À¨¡»»¶»¬ ¬¨¡QS3Ó[¬1 û 1µ «Àrª¨ x S«À«½ ,¡á®fd[¨rô¡6Ârªü33®)9û 3ª¨rr¦ [¬3ï¡»¼¶ª¡»Âr3À®´» [¬«£«U»r × ¬«»¡rû)¬®f®¶·3À3Þr·®fl3¨r¡»Âr¯ ʨÂr¶ª¡õ¡ª¡¬ ¦£/¶ [¬¡»½S®fd[¨rô¡6ÂrÂr¶§¡6®¦r«U»¨r£c«å33®)g¯ "l¬µÀ :X i i i i WX w̃0 = 1 + Π0 , w̃1 = −(0.998458 · 0 + 00000132 · 5 + 000152878 · 3) = −000465 ß ³
ª¡Ô.Ó3u®¨rÓ3ô¡0¸ªü3®¬¨Y3Ó1å3®K¡6¿À¦§¡6¶ªå3®K¡6æ3¶»¬u÷ir«ÀÂrÔ3¿¢¡6»¡¬ «Àr«¹¸ªÂr¶»º« û ¬uc½RÓ3ª¿À¡6¡»¡ ¸»£¶6¬Ó3®F÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡»¡Ø3¬»¨[£«À¦¬1¯ Ê«ªº«ÂÔ.”¼L¦ô¡6®¨rºFrµr3«À¡ F (x) µ¼®Â3r® Srþ ¡6¬«P£«P£»Ò¬ 1 ³À¦« F 1 1 (w̃1 + F1 (x))− 2 E e 1 H1 1 H1 M1 þ c¶$3ô¡6º3û[¬ ®¼¦¡»®r¨º¬Ó3½RÓ3À®¡ E2 M0 M1 1 = (w̃0 + x)− 2 · 1 . M0 H1 (w̃0 + x) − w̃1 , e2 x + 1 + Π 0 2 M0 F1 (x) = E H1 + 0.00465 = 01353(x + 1 + Π0 ) + 000465 e2 M1 F1 (x) = 乪cÂô¡ x 3 «ÀµÂ¶» x − G1 (x) þ ¡{3«Àµô¡»¡»r»¿¢¡»¦h x + 1 + Π0 − G1 (x) 2 M0 F1 (x − G1 (x)) = E H1 +
0.00465 e2 M1 = 0.1353(x + 1 + Π0 − G1 (x)) + 000465 úb¸ª¶6¬ª¨>£S«Ø¸ªå3® G1 (x) þ¹ô¡·H 0.1353E G1 (x) = 1 + x + Π0 ) G0 + 0.00465E M G 0 M0 . M1 1 + 0.1353 · E M G 0 0 M1 (1 M0 tf3«Àµô¡»¡»r»¿¢¡»¦¬c£¶±®¶6£ ×3× ¬Ã®fÀ»¨>£c«¢¡á¦£¶$[¬7¡6½´Â¶ª¡»Âr®®ô¡>û G (x) µR»¨r¶»Á ×3× ¬«P¬®f¶»¬ 1¨f[¬7¡6½ h 1 [«¿¶N¸ªå3® X þ¹¡Àf G1 (x) = 0.1192E H1 (x) M1 (1 + x + Π0 ) G0 M0 + 0.0041 M1 H1 (x) = 0.1353 1 + x + Π0 − 01192E G0 + 0.0041 + 0.0041 = M0 M1 = 0.1353 x + Π0 − 01192E (1 + x + Π0 ) G0 + 0.1388 M0 ³r [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨r¨å3®¬±Ô.Â3¨rü3µ¡6º®q÷i«Àµ¬c¬¡6¡rûK÷ir«3¬»¨[£«À¦¬1û 3µ X1 Âr X0 = 0 X1 = H1 (X0 ) M1 = H1 (X0 ) =
0.1353 0 + Π0 − 01192E (1 + 0 + Π0 ) G0 + 0.1388 = M0 = 0.119Π0 + 01226 ³ª¡c£¶X»¨r£c¿¢¡%[¬7¡6½¾¬¨áÔ¡6c£«ÀT÷iµK¬»¨¡6£»%÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡wf c0 = 1 + Π0 − (0.1191Π0 + 01226) · 1000168 = 08808Π0 + 08774 c1 = Y1 + (0.1191Π0 + 01226) − 0 = 00091Π0 + 012725 ÕKà ³ r [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨r¨å3®¬¨:¶»rÓ1¡6%þ ¡»º®Ô3P¬ÞrmcRÓ3«« × rª¨>£S«À¡§þlÔ1¡»c£«Àw÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ªU÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡ 3¬»¨3»»£K£¡u§ÄÙh°¬«¬ÔR¸»£Dû,c¬¸ªÓ r¨r®¬«P¬ÔR¸»£æ3µâ3¬¡¤£¶ª¨r¨å3® c ¬ Ó1¿â¸»¬¡rû:3µ¬ Π ×
¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ªfÔ3P¬Þ<ª¨>£S«À¡UÔ¡6c£«À÷iµ¬»¨ô¡¤£ª÷i«¢µK¬c¬9¡ [¬ª¨r3»6£K¬ýr¨¨rr«crµr¨¨r¯ 0 U (c) = 1 X 1 2 c e−t 1t 2 t=0 √ √ c1 0.1192 = 2 c0 + 2 = 2 0.88 + 2 = 2.141 e e √ √ Ò »¡ º®Ô3P¬Þ3SÓ3«« × »¨>£c«¢¡ÊÔ1¡»c£«ÀU÷iµK¬ª¨¡6£»3÷i«¢µK¬c¬¡Ar»ô¡6 ¬N[¬»¨3ª6£ 2.141 µK¬3r¨ô¡:¬3¬»¨3»»£¡°®r««U¡6H[£¡Qr«ÀÂr¶ªRü13®õ< q¬«P¬ÔR¸»£ æ3µ û73µ Ó3¿Ø¸»¬¡ýª¨rrÓ1ü33® × Â·®£¶»®fl[¨¡»Âr»3®«Àf 3ô¡63®)¯ | p 0.1191Π0 + 012725 2 0.8808Π0 + 08774 + = 2.141 e
ʨô¡õSr«Ó1¦¬1ûR÷ir«À»¨r¶»¨ô¦¬Ä±ààà ààà7þ ¦¬«®7¬Ôf¸ªå3®)û 3µ¬¨áø¸§¡6ºRr¶ªKµº × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡6£X¦rÓ3¿â¸»¬Ò Π0 = 13300F t. Õ3Ä k Y R¨>¬®fÓ3«À¨r¬¡6 × ¬ rµ ¶ªr3Ó3ª¨r¶»rªrkR¡»¶»ÂrªÔ.¶§¡6¡°Á3¨º® »¨r££¶6¬®Ârª¨r¿¢¡6¡ª¡ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ Ó1¿â¸»£[¬® Srh[¬¡¤£¶»¨r£6£¡±»¨r¶ª¡»¡»r ¦«3¬ × r<å1¡6¬¡61 ûʬ÷i«Sr¶ªü3«º3f1Âr¨rªÂr®f®r«rµü¡»¡>¯ ³À¦«1[¬µ:3f 3¨w¦«À¡A¬Ó[¬¡»®7¬¡AµÁ¸§¡6r1
û«Àw®r««À¡ª¡Aª¨rÁ3®f¿À¡»r3¬¡6r¶§¦¨r¡ª¡ÊR¡»¶»Âr »Ô ¶§¡ × ¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£§¡Tø¸§¡»º¶»Kµº¨Ârª¶»õ¦[¬¡»®¨½ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£ª¶6¬1ûKSÀ¦r«[r¶ª¶»¬Q»Ô ¶ª¡6£¶6¬ý¦«À¡lr«¢÷iK¬ÒÓ [¬¡6½ Sr1fµRÀ»ÂrÁ´¬Ó3¬¡>û3¨r®·Þr»¬® ®fü3«À÷i¼«Ó3¶ªº« ¯ Ò ¨ ¬Ó[¬7¡6® ¶ªª¡6£«P£»¬å¡¤£c × Þrªü3«À¡»rã¬c¬µ¬¶»¶ª»¨r£Êø¸§¡»º¶»Kµº»¼®f¶»c¦[¬7¡6®¨r½ 3¬«P£« þ<Ȧ»ü3«ÀÂr ¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Âr®¡Sr [¬7¡¤£¶ª¨r½¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3ªÂr¦£«À¡6¨r½®7¬¡r¯ ³´¬¸ªÓ
r¨r®¡ 3¬»¨[£«À¦¬±÷i«ÂÔ3¿À¡»¡»¡»rîrµ´ÄLà°r¨r¶X»¨r¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârª¶»ý¦[¬¡6®¨r½ µR»¨r¶»Á1»¿À¡»¡ª¡·cRÓ3r«À«À¡rûKc««Àµr« ¬ × À¨¡»»¿¢¡¤£XÂô¦rÓ3¿Ø¸»£¡·c [¬¡6£¶»¨¡¤¬Y¯ T¨¾Ä>ÕKÙÙç ,¡x«¡ª¡>¯ ʨr塤£ûw¶»Ârª¨ × rå1µK¬1r¨¡ ¬ SRÓ3r«À«Àª ¡ [¬»¨r3£«À¦¬1ûtrµFçà r¨¶»c[¬µR6£æF»¨<å3«£ÞrÀ½þ ¦¬«3þ ®Rl[¬ª¨r[£«¢¦¬°¬°»¨ü3®f»Ârrx¦¬«½»¨r¿ÀfÁ3»Âr®¡x«ºK£««¿¢¡6½q¦£«¢¡6¨½® ¸ ¦Âr«ô¡6«Àr+ ¹X¡»å3«P¬L¸ªÓ33»£K£¡§þ¤û ®f»¶»»«À¡¤¬
¹·S1Ó3r¬«®7¬«cc¬«1µ ªÂr¶ªü3«ÂxÂrXص 3¬«P£«[¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Â¡rû3r¨r®f¶»á®3®f¶»Âô¡ ¸ 3¬«P£«[ÂwªÂr¶»ü1«Ârª»¨r£c®¬7¡>ûRc [¬¡6£¶»¨ô¡¤¬r¨r®S¬«P¬Ôf¸»£cÀw¬¨õÂô¦rwÓ3¿â¸»¬¡rûf¬SUÄrÕ3ÄÙÕ U¡T«¡ª¡>¯ Ò ®¼L¦¡»®¨rº:¶ªÂrª¨ × r × <å1¡6¬¡»¡6¬¬õÔ3P¬Þ1¬«P¬Ô3æ<£¶6¬¨r£b«SÂr«ô¡6Âô¡>ûSr«¢µ±¬«P¬Ôf¸»£<»¨K¡6 ®fÀ»¨>£c«¢¡¤¬ rµø¸§¡»º¶»Kµº × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£xÓ3¿Ø¸»£¡>g¯ T13r®r¶ªrÓ3SÂrKµcÄLßßàà ,¡x«¡ª¡>¯ m£$¡ [¬¡6½1¾û 3µ × £¶qßc®Rü1«¼ ×
¼¨rº S½RÓ3»¨r¶»¶ªr«U»¨r£c«À¡¤¬û ¬¨±r¶»Ó3SÂrKµ®þ ÷iº«r¬¨:«ªº ®Â¡õrª¡ × rRþ¤û[r® [¬ª3«½¬®)¯ Ò c£ªÓ3À®÷iø¸ªr¨¡ × u«Àr¿À¶ª¡ccRÓ3r«À«À¡cÔ.¶»ª¨r «H 3¡»¡ª¡ ¦«À[¬SÂr × Kµ«¿À¡6¬3·¡6L¦£ ×3× ¦Âr«À¡6«Àr3® × ô¦r¨¡»Âr»Âô¦« ¯ UÂr«Ó3£å3«t¬¡6¼¶»«Âª¡°3³ +11r® ¦r13 gû 3¬3rò¦¬«À½»¨¿fÁ3»Âʦ£«¢þ ¡»¨r½®ÂrK¡l®¨r«3Hû¦¬µ<æ7¸Aª¨rr¶ª¨rºRÓ3Ârªr®¾Sr>¸ªr«3ÂrªÂ¦r«)¬¨X£««£Kµf¡,3¼L¦r«À3 ûK§¡ × g¯ ¯q·ÞrÂr«À À3®7£ ×3×
¬¨<¦«À¡rû 3µ ¬¨ «¢µr ¡»¿Ô3å3ªæ × ¨ô¡6ª¿À¡¤£»®»¨ü3®f»Ârr»ªÂrÂô¡ Âr°¬ ®3ª¡»¶»å3®ÞrÀ½7¸ªå3®f®7¬« ®7¬Ô Þrª«P¬7¡6X3H 3Âr¨»Âr®¡ × r<塤¬ª6¬¯ ·rSÂr«ÀrÒû 3µ¬õ¸ª¼¦º × r´1¼¦r®f»¨®¨rr¡6¿ÀÔ3å3»æ × À¨¡6»¿À¡6£»®cÔ3¬Þ>¬¯ ÕfÙ X #X X [ :$ ~ ñök µ ¢Ä fÖ9 ) 3 ÔÚÓ ! 3®¿>Î`ÂÚhÔà ê ÄËàÊ&Î`¿>ÁÍÁ$Ð`ÀÁBÇÔÅ$ÐÅÔBÇ&ÏfÓdÐf¿SÉÅø ¿BÈ`ÅÞÁÍ ÍdÈh¿BÈ`ÅfËhÓ ÂÛ`ÍÑã9#",3%$ y 3 ù&ü ÏÁÊ&Á$ÐÙÔÅ Ù `Ǿ<9D9 G 3 ù ! 9 ß ÔÚÓ 3 3
Vü)(ªÉ`Â×Ç3!ÂÁáÙÁÍÁ¿ËÊ&Î`¿SÁÍÁ$Ð`ÀâÁBÇÔÅ$ÐÅÔBÇ&ÏfÓdÐf¿SÉÅø ¿BÈ`Å®ÁÍ ÍdÈh¿XÈ`ÅfËhÓ Â%Û`Í Å$Ð`Û`ÍÛ 9#3 * ! 3Y¿>Î`ÂÚhÔà ê Ö¾,6¾0;#;&3ªù ! " ÄÚhÔBÇhÂÁÖÒË/½¿BÈ`ÅfÈhÂ%Û`ÍÑ* Vüâ¼gÇÔÅ$ÐÅÔBÇhÌhÇhÄÓ 3B¾ ,3 + %3 $ ~ù 9 üØÏÁÊ&Á$ÐÙÔÅÁ 3 Ó Ã ÓÅ$Ðf¿>ÔÂÓ Æ+תÓÂ%ÁáÙÁÍÁ¿bËÅÌÂBÇÀÅ)Å$ÐfÌ ÊÅÔBÇÊ&Î`Â%ÔfÏÁ ¿BËh¿SÉfÐ`ÛuÁBÇhÄ&ÁÅvÁBÇÔÅ$ÐÅÔBÇhÌhÇhÄÓ:Å$Ð`É`ÍVÇ&ÈhÍá¿BËh¿BÈ`ÅÉÊ`ÂÛ`Í ÐÕ hǾ"!5-D9 3 ù 3¾,1,3Vü.(ªÉ`Â×bÈhà ÄÂ%ÁáÙÁÍÁ¿N¿>ÔÂø ¿>ÔÅÓÙhø ½ÁÍ ÍÁÃÔfÏÁÃßÓdÇÔà ÄhÏÁÚhÁÖ Á¿SÀÁBÇhÄ&ÁÅ
ÁBÇÔÅ$ÐÅÔBÇhÌhÇhÄÓ[Å$Ð`É`ÍVÇ&ÈhÍá¿XËh¿BÈ`ÅÉÊ¿>ÔÂø ¿SÔÅÓ~Ùhø ½HÈhÂ%Û`Í ç `0///3áÇÁÃÁÂ/ËhÍáÓ(3dÖÆ1ú+Ð`É`ÍVÇ&ËhÍá¿XËh¿BË`ÅÉÊ2 ¼gÇÁÅ$ÐÅÁBÇ43ÁÅ3ÏËhÍÁÅÁ¿5 ¼R ¿=Â%Á×3ÅÈ É`¿SÉÊ`Â/Ë#3 Ë`ÅÈr K7698;:=<><@?BADCFEGG;HDIKJLËhÂ/Ë<¬ÖÆ+¿=Ó ÃÇÓ Ã½ÆÂÓBÁŨ÷qÅ¿=ÆÒÙhÄ®É Ä²R¯ w¶»¢¡>¯ 1¯¡Ô.¶ª¡6õ³Ó¯1þ"T«H¯)ÙÄû 3¯¢ÄûÄÖK²¯ ¢h ² Ö mÔ1Ô¯ÄLß7þ ÅÈ É`¿xŽÆ×È ÅhÑ Éç `7M8%NO8QPADRS?UTVRWHOEXJ Ñ «@9#9<; ;#;#; ýÆÂÓBÁŪ¿SÉ»NÆ¿¬ÖyÅÈ ³Ó¯1þ"T«H¯ ÙÙRûõ1¯ÀÄû ÄÖÖ1¯ YZ8[]RWC1AD^G;T` 9a08 bcedHDTfC1AD?UEXJ wÔ3Ô¯UÙçþ¹ßà1¯ t¶»À¡r¯ 1¯9Ô
¶ª¡» É`¿ÈÒËhÂ/Ë<¬ÖÆ+¿=ÓÅ¿ ÅhÑ Kh 4ç QÔ3ÔD¯ýÄLàÕKàþ¤ÄLàÕÖ1¯ Ëh¿XËhÍáÓ ¿=ÓBÁÅ)Ó ÃúW/*Á$ÙhÓÅÖõÅÊ`ÄhÙhÓ ÚÓ ÃÇÑ Ò ÞÞrÓ1rK¡ Ò [¬«¢µR»·¬3Ó Ê¶ª¦K¡6 ßK²ûÙààKç¯ $ K YZ8`[]RSC1AD^GfTK =a08Qbc,dHDTCFAD?UEXJ ýÆÂÓBÁÅªÓ ÃúW/*Á$ÙhÓÅÖÅÊ`Ä 1¯RÔ.¶§¡6õ³Ó¯1þ"T« ¯1Õ3Äû 3¯û ÙààK²¯ ç ÕKß lÔ3Ô¯UßKçh7þ¹ß Õ3¯ w¶»¢¡>¯ ÙhÓ ÚÓ ÃÇ Ñ Dh ÄLà hgij^G;Clk98`bGfHHOj*mC `gHDRnDjHoNO8Kpq?U<><@C GfTfIrPSstj;AtAvuZ8`wGfCFCF?UTfEXJ 7 ª Ö ÁbÁÈ¡Ó Õ xÔ3ÔD¯ ß7þ>Ö1¯ ÙÁתÓBÉ`ÍÉ$ÇhÄ¦É « ÅÊ`ÄhÙhÓ ÚÓ ÃÇyÓ Ã½ÆÂÓBÁŨvxbÉ`ÂÍdÙL«Â%ÁÁ¼«HËhÍ ÍG¬É`à ÚhÁÃ
¿<ÓBÉ`ÃÒÑB¾0;#;#;`Õ¾0;#;9 Ñ ù!3 å1¶»[¬«%÷gÊSr¶»r3Þôµ³rÓ1ÞrÀ3ýþ"T« ¯ ÙÖ1ûÒõ3¯¢Äû´ÙààÕ1¯ 2ç ÄÄ f0///3dÊ`×Ê3dÖÆ/*ÁfÏÉ`ÍdÙ&ËhÍÉ`Ã6¨Q(ªÎfÐ`ÔÂ/ÙÁÊ¿¡ Ë&Ù&Ëh¿SÉʪÊ&ÎfÐÐ`Ô¿>Ô¿SÁÍáÓ ÍáÓÅ¿BÈ/½HË oªgÔÂø ¿SÔÅÊ&Î`¿>ÁÍÁÅvÁÍ ÍdÈh¿BÈhÕ ÅÉÊ ÄÙ Rú+ÐË&ÏËhÍáÄfÐËh¿ ÒÙ % ÄLß 7uZ8zP8%{78*bGf?Uc,|` t}=8~Y8N>Gf^RSCJ LËhÂ$Ë ÖÆ¿=Ó ÃÇ ËÅ É`Â¿É ÖÒËhà ÁGËháÙÁ ÁÃÒÅÁ`Ñ.Ô3Ô¯1ÙÄçþ ÙÄL²¯1ä¹7¸ªå1¶ªuµ "T«Àå3cýßÕ3û3乪»å3±ß1û´Ùààß1¯ Ä>hÕ 7bGfT*W;HN>C RWJÍÁ¿BÏfÓdÐf¿>ÉÅø ¿XÈ`ÅÑmÔ3Ô¯%ÄÙRį Ò å1«P¬1ûÙààß1¯ Ä`ç
9P8XpG;<G;^|I :8XgH|Vj*m?BADG;TIpG;HD?Uj8[DADiH?Usti`J ËhÂ%Ê&Á¿ É`ÃÒÅÓÅ¿SÁà ¿ LÂÓ Ó ÃÇ®É ÃÒÅÆ+Â/Ëhà ÁLÂ%ÉfÙhÆ ¿ ÅhÑUÔ1Ô¯%Äþ§Ùà1¯ Ò ª¡6À tå3««À¡6ÀûÙààÖ1¯ `ªÖ¿=¿ÈD¨y É`Â%*3z/Á¿Ð3dÖÆF Å$ÐË&ÏËhÍáÄfÐËh¿SÉÊ2oª¡ÁÂÓ ¿SÁÅÓ <¬ ¾0; #¨ 3È c« È «¬ D¬ cSÈ Z ¬ « D¬ ·¬ h ÕÕ ñ ïl Ê K } 0"o$ ~Q"ýäøóáù[ä Ò Æï± Æ RÈ7RrKK>1 ΢РömÌ ÈAr htäD ù » ô¹ù=~#ä þî" $o"ÍY áäx³ Ò ù{l³ Ò ùXäøó Ò ³ Æ ü K6ÐU >ÍNÑD } "G ÒõÒ ùá¯Rù{ 0ê)) Û Í0W gqùi[ "l³ÿr$ »
[Aù » ó Ò h Ò [~ÒÊùihwäD ù » +ô¹ù=~#0h Ò û Ò ®K¡6å[£¶»å1ª¨>¬®fÀ¶6£Kµ } Ò r iê) ª¨rr¶ª¨rº7¸ª®Âf¡^÷irµr«S´÷i«r«Àº»ªÂr ¡6å1Ó[¬¡¤£ × ¬ö®Rظªr«ÀrK¡6ûÝ3µ ¬ Ó1«¨>¬¡» ¼[£«À«½S<å33®7£¶»rÓ1cÂfµû%»¬¸»£¡ýª¨r««c%¡»r¶»SÂr®rû¬ ×1× ¬ ¬Ø1À¦¬¡6®¨>£»® ÂQÓ3¨rÂrªr® §¡¤¬3Ó3¬¶»Ó »¨r¬ × £«¢µK¬¢¡á®¼L¦ô¡6®r¨rô¡6»rF¬«À®¬«c¬¨¡6¬û)c£»® £«À¡6¬«A¿À¶ª¡á¶ªÂrª¨rr®¡<¬ Sr÷ir««º<ÀÓ3Âr¨Âr3Âr«À®fü3«%3r [¬»¨[£«¢¡¤¬ ÷ir« ¯ tå3Ó[¬Ô
r§¡>û.Ùà1ÄÙR¯ ¸ªæ33Àå3{1¯ ¯ ¯ h ËÖÒËhÍ ÍVÇ&Ëh¿>ÛËhÍdÈhø Â/È`ÅfË